aroe
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posted on January 7, 2000 03:35:50 PM new
Hi all. Here at AuctionWatch.com we thought it would be fun to play Nostradamus and do a story about online auction predictions for the year 2000. Any thoughts on what the coming year will hold for the world of eBay and online auctions in general? You can also email me your comments at [email protected]. Many thanks…
Andy
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Lisa_B
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posted on January 7, 2000 04:26:59 PM new
Well, this is a "prediction" based on a trend I've already started to notice -- and that is that eBay will become more of a dealer's market, and regular collectors will shift some of their buying dollars back to regular shops, websites etc.
Why? Because many of eBay's categories have become so glutted that it is impossible for the average collector to look through everything, including volumes of worthless junk and items that are not listed in their proper categories. Buyers will return to shopping at places where they can more readily find what they are looking for, even if that means higher prices. Also, buyers are getting fed up with the increase of sellers who are not knowledgeable, who purposely or through sheer ignorance misrepresent merchandise, and who hide behind the auction format to avoid taking responsibility for making their customers happy. These buyers will return to spending their money -- even if it means higher prices -- where they can be better assured of getting what they expect, and that the dealer will stand behind the merchandise.
Prices are falling on eBay, and dealers should take advantage.
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kathyg
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posted on January 7, 2000 05:37:44 PM new
The IRS will discover a goldmine. Meanwhile, the newly imposed internet sales tax and auction license requirements will drive many more sellers away. Finally, Meg will get a manicure and begin a steamy and not-so-secret love affair with Bill Gates that will ultimately destroy Microsoft.
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wabmester
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posted on January 7, 2000 06:40:47 PM new
In the year 2000...
Everybody will become rich from the stock market. This will make current auction sellers lose interest in online auctions. Ebay's share price will drop, and the rest of the net stocks will follow, causing the market to crash. The Great Depression of 2000 will cause people to sell their belongings in order to survive, and the popularity of eBay will surge as a result. And the cycle will begin again....
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dave_michmerhuizen
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posted on January 7, 2000 09:53:12 PM new
I want te bring this one up to the top, because I'm wondering something specific.
we all know that eBay quadrupled their number of listings in 1999 -- went from 1 to 4 million, or something like that - I'm sure I'll be corrected pronto, thanks in advance.
What sort of progression are we looking at for 2000 -- from 4 mil to 8 mil? from 4 mil to 32? levels off where it is?
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wabmester
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posted on January 7, 2000 10:30:26 PM new
There's a site that tracks auction counts, but it seems to be down right now:
http://www.auctioncounts.com/
Try this excellent post in the meantime:
http://www.siliconinvestor.com/stocktalk/msg.gsp?msgid=12433743
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ebay12step
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posted on January 8, 2000 03:54:32 AM new
In the year 2000 the price of beanie babies will drop due to influx of Japanese-made knockoffs, causing a downward spiral and eventually economic ruin for SillyCon Valley. Gates will buy everything and become Dictator of the World in 2005.
In 2010 eBay introduces eBuzzer, an electronic chip implanted in a user's brain, that notifies the user when he's been outbid. By 2015 nearly 4/5 of the world community is controlled by eBuzzer, which now tells us which products to buy and "bills our account" automatically. We're all put to work doing PR for eBay.
In 2020 the United States oversleeps and misses placing a last-minute snipe bid in an auction for new military technology. The balance of power is affected and we all learn to speak Russian.
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Antiquary
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posted on January 10, 2000 08:35:47 AM new
Lisa_B's very concise verbal hammer
nailed some of the most disturbing trends. I also think that eBay will continue to move further toward fixed-priced selling under the aegis of the old open auction format. The average selling price of antiques/collectibles with ready availability will continue to decline, but remain relatively profitable for sellers in comparison to live sales. The majority of new listings will continue to come from antique malls or established dealers who need to move inventory or seek interest beyond their local markets. Buyers will demand good communication and customer service and feedback will reflect how well those demands are met.
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stockticker
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posted on January 10, 2000 09:10:25 AM new
My category has pretty much been taken over by off-line established dealers already. This is quite a difference from 18 months ago when there was only one seller who possibly had an off-line business (in that type of item).
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Antiquary
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posted on January 10, 2000 09:20:23 AM new
Stockticker,
I'm seeing that more and more also. Good to get a wider perspective of the trend. It also probably means fewer bargains though. One good result I notice is that in several categories that I follow, I notice a lot fewer of the so-called "junk" listings which have been discussed here in the past. That will be attractive to serious collectors.
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aley
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posted on January 10, 2000 09:35:31 AM new
I think all the gloom-and-doom predictions of the death of the auction marketplace are off-base.
I predict that in 2000, eBay will continue to pace the explosive growth of the Internet. Numbers of listings will increase dramatically, with the largest numbers being from dealers and professional sellers. The categories that will grow the most will be those for utilitarian items, particularly somewhat specialized items that are currently sold largely by mail order. A major source of the growth will be the realization by many users that it's worth looking for these sorts of things on eBay before ordering them new from a catalog, and the increased number of listings will help to make this possible.
I also predict that there will continue to be room for the small-time sellers alongside the large dealers. There is a huge market for used merchandise, and this market will continue to be dominated by the small sellers.
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fred
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posted on January 10, 2000 09:51:17 AM new
With the resignation of the Indiana State Attorney Gen. & other leading law makers, to develope internet law. In the next two years, I see sweeping changes in internet world wide.
Fred
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Antiquary
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posted on January 10, 2000 10:01:07 AM new
"I also predict that there will continue to be room for the small-time sellers alongside the large dealers. There is a huge market for used merchandise, and this market will continue to be dominated by the small sellers."
Yes, I agree. Especially those who use it part-time, as a supplement to other income, or as a hobby. I think that they are responsible for the majority of listings now. I do think that there will be fewer full-time sellers whose income is fully dependent upon eBay.
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divatiques
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posted on January 10, 2000 10:48:45 AM new
just was reading these predictions and came across the 'the newly imposed internet sales tax '.....have i been living in a barn or what.....where did this come from?? or is the phrase a prediction???
[ edited by divatiques on Jan 10, 2000 10:51 AM ]
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pdurant
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posted on January 10, 2000 11:02:45 AM new
divatiques - I hope it was a prediction but I'm afraid that taxing internet commerce is in our future - even if it doesn't hit in the year 2000.
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majesticman
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posted on January 10, 2000 12:06:17 PM new
Don't worry the Gov. can't wait to tap the internet. If they do they can vote themselves another raise.
My prediction...HMMMM.... Majesticman sell all of the .coms he registeded for $20,000,000 and retires in the Grand Caymens and scuba dives his life away. Sounds good to me.
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virakech
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posted on January 10, 2000 05:12:03 PM new
I believe California will hold firm in it's desire NOT to tax internet sales due to the increased revenue and will have to start considering seperation from the United States. Then it will export computer components to the US states at prices that will bring us to our knees.
A string of thefts will prove to be a nationwide ring of teenagers breaking into internet dealers' homes.
eBay storage buildings will crop up in everytown USA to attract those still not on the internet. And department stores will become coffee shops with computers for shoppers to sit at and shop.
and, we will start to see all the items we sold at auction over the last few years being reauctioned by the buyer because there just isn't anything else to sell.
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sgtmike
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posted on January 10, 2000 05:39:01 PM new
lisa_B:
Regarding your prediction early in this thread. What you posted reveals you have excellent surveillance and retention skills. Your insight is incredibly on target. Your presentation is concise and clear. If you had been in my bureau I would have made you “lead investigator.” 
Now, can you handle opposing opinions reqarding your prediction?
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vlw
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posted on January 11, 2000 07:45:32 AM new
(I predict I learn how to hit enter after I type in what I want to say)
[ edited by vlw on Jan 11, 2000 07:47 AM ]
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vlw
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posted on January 11, 2000 07:46:09 AM new
I predict Parrothead88 will reach his 20,000 positive feedback.
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Bluee
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posted on December 13, 2000 10:39:11 PM new
That Bush will win the election.
Oh, wait, how do I know he will run?
Huh? What date is it now?
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sthoemke
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posted on March 4, 2008 07:00:46 PM new
Any predictions for 2008???
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ST0NEC0LD613
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posted on March 4, 2008 08:38:46 PM new
I predict eBay will be investigated by the securities commision for falsly reporting it's revenue.
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