posted on November 29, 2000 01:56:44 PM
Ebay is not interested in slow, steady growth, or in having a business that is healthy but not growing, like your local flea market owner is. They definitely do not want to be in a holding pattern, healthy or not (even a healthy holding pattern causes stockholder concerns and speculation). They want to grow as fast as they can, generate large revenues for their stockholders, and possibly get sold to some huge corporation so they can all live in Bermuda on their huge stock profits. Whether or not this is "how it used to be" this is how it is now. Ultimately the site's long term health is not of great concern because in the long term the major players plan to move on to something else.
The drop in the market that has occured and the bigger one that will inevitably come later will not teach them diddly-squat. If anything, it will spur them to throw yet more sellers on the fire (so to speak) in an attempt to shore up short term profits. They have chosen their path, now we have to choose ours.
posted on November 29, 2000 02:54:41 PM
Kurt...from what I have seen here is almost everyone did have an open mind about what you proposed. But notice I said "almost". I use that qualifiction because I think there is one person who had a set belief and was looking for others to agree..you.
I think your statement... "I am aware, however, that there are many who are quite afraid or un-epuipped to step out of the boundries of there own opinions long enough to garner any kind of enrichment."...was insulting to those of us who took you at your word that you were looking for a discussion.
You are using the examples of the real world (ie..non-internet) to support your position that ebay has expanded to much. The problem with that is that it is based on something that has real limitations. In any one geographical location there will be a limit to the expansion a business or business district can do..but the limit won't be based on space. The limit will be based on dollars (pounds, lira, francs, yen etc)..the amount of dollars available to be spent in the establishments. The dollars will be limited by the income of the area's residents but most importantly, the NUMBER of people in the area who will buy at the establishments.
This number of potential customers is limited by distance...the customer will only travel so far to shop...so every "market" has two natural limiters, money and customers. Once a market reaches those saturation points it can grow no more, until it has an expansion of those two factors..then it will grow again.
Your example of the local flea market not expanding is NOT because of these factors..it is because the owner has decided he doesn't WANT to expand. As long as the two other factors are there, someone else can successfully enter the market.
What your forgetting about ebay is this is GLOBAL. The global population is how many BILLIONS? There is no limiting factor of distance...everyone in the world is a potential customer. Every person on this globe has the potential to own a computer, the only vehicle needed to whiz to England at 9pm at night to buy a widget and then two minutes later whoosh to Argentina to sell a widget (all the while sitting in ones own home in Texas).
At this point in time the number of people who own computers is infintesimal compared to the potential. The potential number of customers is tremendous. The potential numbers of merchants is tremendous. And the boundarys between the two are not there because every merchant is also a customer. Every merchant has needs that must be fulfilled..needs for widgets and whatzits that he doesn't sell.
Your examples of local fleamarkets is to narrow. A closer example, and really not even a very close example, is international conglomerates. Companies that have expanded beyond their local markets and have entered the international marketplace. They started expanding product lines and then expanded accross international boundries.
Ebay is a global marketplace that can sustain an incredible number of sellers..because as it reaches across the world it also picks up buyers.
There is a limit to ebay but we are far from that limit. Right now this global marketplace is in it's infancy. Like a child growing up, some days it outgrows it's clothes, but that is easily corrected with new clothes. You don't stop the child from growing because today the child's pants are to short..you get the kid some new pants.
Ebay will continue to grow..at times there will be to many sellers. when that happens the natural selection of the marketplace will force the marginal sellers out. at other times there will be more buyers chasing the goods..this will cause an influx of new sellers. this see-saw will go on for quite a while..many years I think.
As ebay, and the internet economy, enlarges, the global community will start equalizing. The second and third world economies will start to move into the first world economy. At some point in the future, we will have a global economy that encompasses the entire globe. People who now are barely existing will be part of the economy.
It will happen, may take a while, and when it does, then ebay will have met the limits of it's expansion.
Until then..stop thinking in a parochial manner and start realizing we are in at the beginning of a new era. Let it go where it will!
