posted on July 6, 2001 07:31:41 AM new
Wow.. that is the best auction count history site I've seen. Thanks for the link.
My thoughts: I expect to see a drop in listings until October, then an upturn for Christmas until the first week of December.
Of course, if eBay is "forced to" (read: "make it look like we have 50% more auctions than we do at the end of a quarter so we can report it to wall street" do another FLD at the end of September, then we will see another short-lived spike.
If you look at today's count versus LAST WEDNESDAY'S, the numbers are below.. and that even includes the 10 day stragglers from FLD. Doesn't bode well. I expect to see a 4,000,000 floor pretty soon before it turns around for Christmas.
I used this FLD to attempt to dump 305 individual items, my sell thru was only 122 (40%) which was dismal, considering the same things during Christmas (3rd party FLD's..not eBay) garnered around 65% sell thru and at higher opening bids then. I chopped most opening bids by 33% this time and many sold for opening only...much to my great disappointment.
Oh well, I still raked in $300 net after comissions on 122 items, but I have 47 payments/shipments to deal with now.
I will use up the 183 relists on some duplicates that got more money and are likely to sell again, and then start bulking the remaining ones just to move'em-move'em-move'em!
posted on July 6, 2001 07:52:25 AM new
Historically, was this end of June FLD the first? I was aware only of the post-holiday FLD's. It never occured to me that perhaps they'll do it again this year. I think I'll leave myself a note on the calendar...
Was it the tapes from Bill Clinton's, or maybe Richard Nixon's, lie detector tests?
Not all bad news for the sellers.
The daily numbers suggests alot of BIN's were taking place. Many posts suggest alot of listings ended in sales. The ability to generate that many auctions is a a tribute to users. The fact that they are not blindly relisting or adding new listings is a credit to the insight, knowledge and discipline that the selling community has developed.
Difficult times sharpen our survivor skills and small independent sellers are, above all else, survivors.
I have no insight what this means for eBay. I guess they "gave away' about $800,000. in listing fees (the money they would have received in regular listing fees if they had not offered the FLD). They did boost late June and July income with some additional FVF fees.
I would have expected the auction count to taper down over the next several weeks and not "Drop - Like a Lead Balloon". Looks like it will shortly dip below 5,000,000 for the first time in almost a year (excluding the annual post holiday fall-off).
If you substract the listing numbers from the large companies, who post thousands of auctions at a time and were not much of a factor last year, the listings by small independent sellers seem to be drastically below a year ago.
To my knowledge the previous history of FLD's was only at the end of the holiday season (Dec. 20 something) and once just about the time eBay was launching the IPO (first selling it's stock to the public) in '99.
I still have not seen any official press release as to why now.
An I didn't notice many "thank-you eBay" posts as where usual in times past. If you were to point out that I don't hang with "thank-you eBay" type of people or seem to see that type of post, I would have to agree that you're correct.
Whatever, it seems to have helped sellers as a whole and (insert propaganda here) it's provided me some unsold listings that I will cut and paste to other sites.
What does it all mean and what comes next?
If I knew I wouldn't be smoking Marlboros, drinking Diet Coke and posting here.
posted on July 6, 2001 10:12:33 AM new
Will the total listing drop to 3 million by Monday? I think that will happen! Many sellers gave ebay an extra dime, so the auction would end Sunday, and these same savey folks used the free listing to list in 2 catigories, inflating the true count. So watch the drop. Ed
edhdsn
posted on July 6, 2001 01:38:45 PM new
Thanks for some good reponses......
This could become an interesting thread which I wanted to have up and running before Sunday can be analysed. -Day 10 of FLD.
The FLD, IMHO, has only been a demonstration of power listing routines efficiency.
Bulk Sellers pushing HOT (not) FAD Items have had the option to pull out of a few Dutch Auctions and list as follows......
Run auctions for 3,5,7,10 days in two categories 10 times.
End result was 80 listings.
Who's trying to fool who?
Will any of these be relisted similarly?
I doubt it.
On Sunday I expect Search to run late and not to be updated. Perhaps listing too?
Savvy listers would be wise not to bulk relist on Sunday to keep eBay stable for their closing listings.
Now comes the big question of what the numbers will re-level out at next week?
eBay can say "re-list your unsold item and if it sells the re-listing fee will be refunded"
-It's Not really Free is it now?
I don't think much recent clutter will be relisted and eBay will be looking a numbers line a 1,000,000 below where they were......
say 4.5M average listings, perhaps better listings, slightly?
posted on July 6, 2001 01:55:32 PM new
As far as numbers go, I can totally understand why they are down from last year. A year ago, I would list lots of individual, low-dollar items- for example Barbie dolls of the not-desirable-to-collectors type. Between the postal rate increase and the ebay fee increase it is no longer economically advantageous for me to do this. I have seriously restructured my buying/selling strategies, and have largely eliminated lots of things that used to be profitable because they no longer are. I have a feeling I'm not alone in this. I think the majority of "missing" items are most likely sportscards, postcards, fast food toys, Barbies, paperback books, etc...the inexpensive things that you just can't profitably list on ebay anymore.
As far as free listing day goes, you can bet I'll be more prepared for the next one!
[ edited by CAgrrl on Jul 6, 2001 01:57 PM ]
posted on July 6, 2001 02:01:51 PM new
I for one will be relisting on bargainandhaggle not ebay. I saved about $50 in listing fees and they will collect some good FVF fees on stuff I wouldn't have listed there at all except for FLD.
posted on July 6, 2001 02:14:08 PM new
deco- I am too!! In some ways free listing day might have been more detrimental to my bottom line than it was helpful- if it crashes on Sunday I am sunk.
posted on July 6, 2001 02:20:11 PM new
Imagine on Sunday! I just had 219 auctions end that loaded up on the 28th with more to come... Some good some nada!
posted on July 7, 2001 12:23:33 PM new
For this balloon thread to rise let's figuratively throw out some ballast.
The auction count is still dropping and day 10 of FLD is tomorrow......
There have been several threads of sellers stating their listing achievements on FLD.
Where are the buyers gloating over wonderful purchases?
My search strings have been used more thoroughly than ever this last week, I used Title only, New To-day as well as the laid-back & relaxed Selling To-day, BUT so few items have been added to my Watch list the 20 limit hasn't been reached.
And I missed one item because a Buy it Now option had beat me........
I'll repeat my 1st question from the start.....
Was FLD a clever tactic to eliminate the relisting of clutter?
posted on July 7, 2001 07:21:19 PM new
I believe the FLD was a ploy to inflate their auction numbers so they could put good (or at least, non-bad news) in their 2Q report.
Remember, Meg has promised the sun and moon to the investors, and a drop in total # of auctions just won't cut it.
posted on July 8, 2001 12:53:45 PM new
I would expect some FLD relists to go in tonight and result in an increase in the totals.
They should be completely out of the system in about ten days at which time the auction count might return to 'normal" which has seemed to be a downward trend heading below 5,000,000.
Considering my personal FLD results it appears I closed-up shop and went on an extended summer vacation starting last week but nobody clued me in.
posted on July 8, 2001 07:05:07 PM new
humber2....looking like a lead balloon again.....
My favorite graph is the 'all data' - from Sept 98 'til now. I believe, to get a good trend from this, that one should ignore 2 types of events - the two week Christmas period in '98, '99 and 2000 and the two non-Christmas free listing days (Sept 99 and June 2001)
When you do this, I feel that there are two very clear and distinct trends to be seen.
1. From Sept 98 until November 2000, eBay listing totals rose steadily from a little under 1,000,000 to slightly over 6,000,000
2. There is then a disconnect and a new DOWNWARD trend line starts. From slightly over 6,000,000 in Nov 2000 to about 5,000,000 listing right now.
posted on July 9, 2001 10:53:53 AM new
Duh, maybe?
End of quarter figures, higher than ever.(Who cares much how they got there)
End of next quarter?
The remaining auction number, whatever it has fallen to, PLUS the store listings. Drum roll please. A new higher number.
If that was the plan, did we screw things up by posting 2,500,000 listings rather than the more customary 1,000,000 additional auctions?
If the remaining listings plus the store listings, at the end of this quarter, don't exceed last quarter's inflated totals will that mean a FLD in late Sept?
How much is smoke and how much is mirrors and who is the greatest illusionist of the 21st Century?
posted on July 9, 2001 11:29:37 AM new
reston_ray, while end of quarter numbers may keep the stock holders happy, as a seller I am not really interested in only 4 days a year.
eBay is currently over 1,000,000 listings below their high of last Nov and now has over 7 months of essentially steady negative listing growth.
posted on July 9, 2001 11:52:58 AM new
Business is as strong as ever and the supposed "totals" don't mean a hill of beans to indivudal sellers.
The free listing day propped the numbers up and it's only natural that these figures drop. This sky is falling attitude that infests this board is comical and is probably written by folks that have too much time on their hands and not enough auctions listed.
Business is great and folks are paying promptly for us and there is no sign of a slowdown ahead. Unless you want one...
posted on July 9, 2001 01:12:50 PM new
In any event, watch eBay's reporting closely. If Meg isn't on target for her $3 billion increase in revenues, it will be interesting how she dances around it.
posted on July 9, 2001 02:19:35 PM new
reamond, I believe the $3 billion in revenues is a "slam dunk" for eBay. They already showed you exactly how they're going to do it -- they bought Half.com (revenue, but losing a boatload of money). They bought Korea (revenue, but losing a boatload of money. This last quarter, they bought iBazar (revenue, but losing 4c/sh annually (!!) according to their own press release). They've also filed to "print" 10 million new shares for future acquisitions. Do you have any doubt they'll hit their revenue target?? C'mon...
The KEY will be when investors start demanding to see PROFIT. They can buy all the unprofitable revenue they want -- we all know there are tons of dot-bombs on the verge of going belly-up. They're "ripe" for acquisition
I think the FLD was an attempt to:
1) avoid embarrassment (don't want to show lower auction totals, EVEN WITH THE ACQUISITIONS, and I think that was the danger -- US auctions for the quarter are WAY DOWN (5-8% my guess). The iBazar acquisition will probably make up the difference, but it was close.
2) Boost revenue. They charged the listing fee & then credited. Silly way to do that (why not just make it free in the first place). The reason is simple -- falsely create additional revenue to boost the 10-Q report.
3) Boost Earnings. Pro-forma accounting games make it possible to count that revenue, but "ignore" the cost as a "one-time, promotional event expense" (they DID say it was for the "Amercian Collectors Month" or some such nonsense... weren't you wondering why they made some hokey thing like that up? It's so they can count it as "promotional" and ignore the cost pro-forma. As a result, it will boost earnings by $3-$4 million (and THAT IS SIGNIFICANT for this quarter, and undoubtedly the reason they did it, and did it the way they did it).
The key to eBay's stock price (and future, unfortunately) will be figuring out when investors demand EARNINGS from the site. If you take out all the games they've played, I don't honestly think they're making money yet. Pro-forma allows you to hide lots of things like "goodwill", "one-time promotions", "stock option expenses", "acquisition costs", etc, etc... The truth is that they're REAL EXPENSES and are SIGNIFICANT for eBay (hundreds of millions each quarter!) They haven't really made a penny yet, but have pulled the wool over the eyes of many. Watch out when they start questioning EARNINGS. You haven't even begun to see the price increases yet...
posted on July 9, 2001 02:25:49 PM newebaypowersellergold, you obviously have a very clear understanding of accounting tricks. Can you tell me why in the world investors fall for them? I have been watching the numbers games and for the life of me I can't understand why Wall Street allows the wool to be pulled over its eyes.
If I can see through the shenanigans, then it must be fairly apparent to anyone who looks.
So why.....???
--------
SilkMoth only on the message boards
posted on July 9, 2001 02:42:02 PM new
Well, we have more of an "insiders" look at eBay than a typicaly "investor" does.
Do you question McDonalds' accounting? Microsoft's? I'm betting there may be things that are blatently obious---once you know the tricks but we just don't know about it because we are only investors and don't play a part (other than consumer) with those companies.
Just like asking a bidder if they know how eBay makes money and all the fees they charge... A typical bidder doesn't know, and more importantly doesn't care! They own eBay stock without the knowledge of the (possible--no one has proved this yet) little accounting tricks that are being played.
Only us sellers know how eBay works and can see the things others cant.
posted on July 9, 2001 02:54:09 PM new
silkmoth, it's a big pyramid scheme. eBay's a good example. Did you know that 35% of eBay is held by institutions? 52% held by insiders? THAT'S 87% OF THE OUTSTANDING SHARES. They can make eBay stock price do whatever they want to -- the 13% held by "others" have virtually no chance of influencing the price. Fundamentals matter little with a stock like eBay. They could announce a terrible quarter and the price could go up.
The truth is that the bulk of eBay shares are controlled by people that have a very good reason to manipulate the share price to their own benefit... Don't try to predict the short term price of eBay (my 2c), you'll almost certainly get burned if you base it on fundamentals (auction counts, revenue, profit, etc).
[ edited by ebaypowersellergold on Jul 9, 2001 02:54 PM ]
posted on July 9, 2001 03:22:39 PM new
Thank you so much for answering! I suppose I am crippled by logic - always looking for a reasonable answer. lol
I remember telling one of my business professors once that I could do anything with numbers unless they had a dollar sign in front of them. At that point all bets were off. Money is a living creature with a mind of its own, and it does not obey the rules of mathematics.
do another FLD at the end of September, then we will see another short-lived spike.
