sparkz
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posted on September 5, 2005 03:38:54 PM new
Tropical depression 15 formed a couple of hours ago near Bermuda. It is stationary at present. The map showing the projected path is highly uncertain beyond day 2 as of this posting. The landfall probabilities chart gives locations from Charleston, S.C. to Ocean City, Md. with Cape Hatteras and Morehead City, N.C. being at the top of the NHC bookies' hit list. This map should update every 6 hours.
As if this is not enough, they expect a low pressure system over the Bahamas to develop into a tropical depression tonight or tomorrow, and the east coast of Florida is now under a tropical storm warning.
Edited to add: If the map above doesn't update properly at 5 and 11 o'clock, hit CTRL+F5 to force a page update. These maps seem to dominate the cache and memory.
A $75.00 solid state device will always blow first to protect a 25 cent fuse ~ Murphy's Law
[ edited by sparkz on Sep 5, 2005 08:25 PM ]
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parkman
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posted on September 5, 2005 07:15:42 PM new
Yikes Sparkz--I didn't need to hear that. I live in Wilmington NC.
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photosensitive
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posted on September 5, 2005 07:18:48 PM new
Ocean City is closer to Baltimore than I like to think about a hurricane. Lucky the most recent track looks like it is turning north east.
-----o----o----o----o----o----o----o----o
“The illiterate of the future will be the person ignorant of the use of the camera as well as of the pen.”
Maholy-Nagy, Vision in Motion, 1947
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sparkz
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posted on September 5, 2005 07:35:46 PM new
The information is so new, that I had to wait at least an hour and a half for them to develop the graphic until I made the post. The storm track is by no means accurate. It is the 5 day track based on steering currents that may or may not develop 5 days from now. I posted this so you can keep an eye on it. That track map will change a lot in the next few days. The next update should come in a little over a half hour from now at 11:00 EDT. The only thing certain at this point is that it will be slow moving for a couple days and have enough time over warm water to reach tropical storm strength and possibly at least a Category 1 hurricane. There are at least 2 more on the way, one of which is very imminant off the coast of Florida.
A $75.00 solid state device will always blow first to protect a 25 cent fuse ~ Murphy's Law
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toasted36
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posted on September 5, 2005 07:42:39 PM new
Groan ...If I stand in the front yard and blow really hard will it turn away ? Charleston, S.C in about 56 miles right above me sounds to close for comfort
[ edited by toasted36 on Sep 5, 2005 07:43 PM ]
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sparkz
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posted on September 5, 2005 08:21:09 PM new
TD15 has been upgraded to Tropical Storm Nate
with maximum sustained winds of 40 mph. Still no concrete agreement as to the final direction it will take, although it is creeping west at 2 mph. The bookies have changed the probable impact area to West Palm Beach, Fl. to Cape Hatteras N.C.
A $75.00 solid state device will always blow first to protect a 25 cent fuse ~ Murphy's Law
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rhpepsi
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posted on September 6, 2005 05:26:51 AM new
Here is another very good link to track storms...weather.com and accuweather.com seems to hype for viewers sometimes..
http://tsr.mssl.ucl.ac.uk/
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sparkz
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posted on September 6, 2005 08:50:23 AM new
As expected, the low pressure system off the coast of Florida, near the Bahamas, has reached Tropical Depression status and is now TD 16. It is nearly stationary over warm water and is expected to reach tropical storm status tonight or early tomorrow. The forecast track shown on the first couple of advisories is pure speculation until more data can be collected. This is one to really keep an eye on. Especially, if it heads west over Florida and winds up in the Gulf and has a chance to reform.
A $75.00 solid state device will always blow first to protect a 25 cent fuse ~ Murphy's Law
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niel35
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posted on September 6, 2005 09:42:18 AM new
its dark and dreary here today but no wind or rain. Its just off the Bahamas and will see what it does later
thanks for the update Sparky
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sparkz
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posted on September 6, 2005 11:43:37 AM new
Niel...If you're in Miami, most of the action will take place north of you. TD16 is expected to become Tropical Storm Ophelia tonight. This will be an extremely wet one with much of Florida receiving 5-10 inches of water over the next couple of days. Those on the coast north of you need to click on this link several times each day and keep up to date with the warnings and advisories for their areas. This site should update about every 10 minutes, and even sooner for major changes.
http://www.srh.noaa.gov/mlb/
A $75.00 solid state device will always blow first to protect a 25 cent fuse ~ Murphy's Law
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sparkz
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posted on September 6, 2005 08:35:31 PM new
TD16 is going to keep us in suspense a little longer. It's moving very slowly and picking up strength. Although the tracking map shows it scoring a direct hit on Ralphie, it's very unlikely to happen. This 11:00PM track forecast is a compromise between two sets of computer models that are widely divergent. One group shows it pulling away and heading east into the atlantic. The other group paints a doomsday scenario, showing it crossing Florida above Melbourn and emerging into the Gulf. Here is a section of the official NHC description where they admit they don't know where the hell it's likely to wind up:
<<THE INITIAL MOTION IS AN UNCERTAIN 330/3...WITH THE RADAR DATA
HINTING AT A FASTER FORWARD MOTION. TRACK GUIDANCE AGREES ON A
SLOW NORTHWESTWARD MOTION FOR 48 HR OR SO...THEN THERE IS SERIOUS
DIVERGENCE. THE GFDL...GFDN...ECMWF...AND BAMS TURN THE CYCLONE
WESTWARD ACROSS THE FLORIDA PENINSULA INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO. THE
GFS...UKMET...NOGAPS...CANADIAN...AND BAMD TURN IT NORTHWARD AND
EVEN NORTHEASTWARD OFFSHORE OF THE SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES. THE
MODELS ARE SIMILAR IN THE OVERALL PATTERN...WITH THE CYCLONE
BETWEEN TWO SEGMENTS OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE AS A STRONG
DEEP-LAYER TROUGH MOVES OFF THE U.S. EAST COAST. THE DIFFERENT
TRACKS RESULT MAINLY FROM WHICH SEGMENT OF THE RIDGE WILL BE
STRONGER...AND IT IS NOT APPARENT AT THIS TIME WHICH CLUSTER OF
GUIDANCE WILL BE CORRECT. THEREFORE...THE FORECAST TRACK WILL
SPLIT THE DIFFERENCE BETWEEN THE TWO EXTREMES AND CALL FOR A SLOW
NORTHWESTWARD MOTION AFTER 72 HR. THIS IS A LOW-CONFIDENCE TRACK
FORECAST>>
A $75.00 solid state device will always blow first to protect a 25 cent fuse ~ Murphy's Law
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vintagepostcardsdotorg
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posted on September 6, 2005 09:51:31 PM new
i'm glad you posted this...even though it's not especially cheery that - at this point - they don't know what the h is going to happen, sigh...
http://stores.ebay.com/postcards-postcards?refid=store
http://www.vintagepostcards.org
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sparkz
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posted on September 6, 2005 10:35:58 PM new
What is really scarey, is that this system is at almost exactly the same spot where TD12(aka Katrina) developed.
A $75.00 solid state device will always blow first to protect a 25 cent fuse ~ Murphy's Law
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estatesalestuff
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posted on September 7, 2005 03:02:24 AM new
Thank God, it looks like Nate AND Ophelia are doing a do-si-do, heading on out.
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niel35
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posted on September 7, 2005 04:55:05 AM new
Its almost 8AM here in Miami and the sun is out. I am going to the exercise class at the pool.
Ralphy - looks like "Ophelia" is coming your way with lots of rain and wind. Still a TD.
We could use some of that rain here.
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niel35
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posted on September 7, 2005 04:58:25 AM new
8AM Advisory. Winds are 45 MPH and moving NNW
Its off Cape Canaveral now.
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sparkz
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posted on September 7, 2005 09:21:14 AM new
Nate is now a hurricane, but confidence is high it will turn out to the open Atlantic. TD16 is now Tropical Storm Ophelia. No telling which direction it will go. It will probably spin around off the coast of Florida for the next three to five days before it decides to make a significant move.During this time, the northern coast of Florida and the southern coast of Georgia will get a good soaking from the outer bands of the system.
A $75.00 solid state device will always blow first to protect a 25 cent fuse ~ Murphy's Law
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sparkz
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posted on September 7, 2005 02:21:44 PM new
Ophelia is becoming a cliffhanger. They still have no idea where it's going to go. Here's a portion of the NHC's official forecast discussion as of a few minutes ago:
<<MODELS CONTINUE IN GREAT DISAGREEMENT WITH REGARDS TO THE TRACK. THE
GFS WHICH LOOPED THE CYCLONE BACK TO THE WEST IN THE PREVIOUS
RUN...IS NOW SHOWING A TRACK TO THE NORTHEAST. THE NOGAPS WHICH
EARLIER TURN OPHELIA TO THE NORTHEAST AWAY FROM FLORIDA IS BRINGING
THE CYCLONE BACK TO THE U.S. COAST. THE GFDL STUBBORNLY INSISTS ON
A TRACK TO THE WEST-NORTHWEST TOWARD FLORIDA...AND THE STORY GOES
ON AND ON. SINCE THE OFFICIAL FORECAST DOES NOT HAVE THE LUXURY OF
MAKING SUCH LARGE CHANGES IN TRACK EVERY SIX HOUR...THE BEST OPTION
FOR WEAK STEERING CURRENT SCENARIOS IS TO MAINTAIN THE CYCLONE
NEARLY STATIONARY. THIS IS BASICALLY THE SOLUTION OF THE
CONSENSUS.
ALL INTERESTS IN NORTH FLORIDA AND SOUTHEASTERN GEORGIA SHOULD
MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS DEVELOPING CYCLONE.
FORECASTER AVILA>>
I guess the only thing they can agree on is that everyone west of Las Vegas Nevada will be safe from this one.
A $75.00 solid state device will always blow first to protect a 25 cent fuse ~ Murphy's Law
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dacreson
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posted on September 7, 2005 04:39:32 PM new
Yawn..oLD Home week here in Florida
(Still thinking about getting out of Dodge. Where is Dodge?)
Davis
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neglus
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posted on September 7, 2005 05:18:34 PM new
Dodge is in Kansas Dave...I think that you can get there by putting on your ruby slippers, clicking your heels three times and chanting: "There's no place like home..." 
-------------------------------------
http://stores.ebay.com/Moody-Mommys-Marvelous-Postcards?refid=store
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sparkz
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posted on September 7, 2005 09:24:50 PM new
They still can't pin this one down. Here's part of the official statement issued a little over an hour ago.
<<THE INITIAL MOTION IS STATIONARY. OPHELIA IS SOUTH OF A STRONG
LOW-LEVEL RIDGE...AND BETWEEN SEGMENTS OF THE MID-LEVEL SUBTROPICAL
RIDGE. THIS IS PRODUCING A WEAK STEERING ENVIRONMENT. THE GFS...
UKMET...AND CANADIAN MODELS FORECAST THE WESTERLIES TO SINK
SOUTHWARD AND STEER OPHELIA TO THE NORTHEAST AND EAST...WHILE THE
ECMWF CONTINUES TO CALL FOR A WESTWARD MOTION ACROSS THE FLORIDA
PENINSULA INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO. THE NOGAPS...GFDL...AND GFDN
FORECAST SLOW AND LOOPING MOTION JUST OFF THE NORTHEAST FLORIDA AND
GEORGIA COASTS FOR THE NEXT 5 DAYS. GIVEN THE MODEL SPREAD...THE
FORECAST WILL CONTINUE TO CALL FOR A SLOW MOTION...WITH THE NEW
TRACK SIMILAR TO AND JUST A LITTLE EAST OF THE PREVIOUS TRACK. THE
TRACK FORECAST REMAINS LOW CONFIDENCE.
THE INTENSITY FORECAST REMAINS PROBLEMATIC. SOME SOUTHEASTERLY
SHEAR CONTINUES...AND THE SHIPS MODEL FORECAST THAT MODERATE SHEAR
WILL PERSIST FOR MUCH OF THE NEXT 5 DAYS. INDEED...IF THE STORM
GETS NORTH OF 30N THE SHEAR IS LIKELY TO SIGNIFICANTLY INCREASE. IN
ADDITION...WATER VAPOR SHOWS MID/UPPER-LEVEL DRY AIR IMPINGING ON
THE STORM FROM THE NORTHWEST AND SOUTHEAST. THE GFDL BRINGS
OPHELIA TO 84 KT...WHILE THE SHIPS MODEL IS MORE CONSERVATIVE AT 64
KT. THE INTENSITY FORECAST WILL BE SLIGHTLY ABOVE THE SHIPS MODEL
AND BRING OPHELIA TO HURRICANE STRENGTH IN 48 HR. THIS IS ALSO A
LOW CONFIDENCE FORECAST.
It's interesting to note, Accuweather forecasts this storm to hit the central Florida coast as a Cat1 hurricane as early as this weekend and exit into the gulf. Hope the're dead wrong about that one.
A $75.00 solid state device will always blow first to protect a 25 cent fuse ~ Murphy's Law
[ edited by sparkz on Sep 7, 2005 09:27 PM ]
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sparkz
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posted on September 8, 2005 02:17:44 PM new
Tropical storm Ophelia has just been upgraded to a Category one hurricane with max sustained winds of 75 mph. It is expected to intensify further before landfall.
A $75.00 solid state device will always blow first to protect a 25 cent fuse ~ Murphy's Law
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toasted36
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posted on September 9, 2005 03:44:56 PM new
Well the new track puts it right at my front door ...groan . Lets just hope it stays a Cat1 or less
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sparkz
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posted on September 9, 2005 04:09:15 PM new
Toasted...Don't panic yet. Because of it's slow speed, it won't make land fall until 3 to 5 days from now. The track on the map is a compromise between two sets of models with widely divergent predictions. They are guessing at the timing and strength of a high pressure ridge that will build in the Atlantic coast region, which will steer this thing. Landfall is still 3-5 days away and can be anywhere from Key West To Virginia. They are having a difficult time trying to harness this storm until they can find the steering wheel. Here's an excerpt from the latest forecast discussion, by an NHC forcaster who has been quoted several times recently in the press reporting on this storm:
<<THE SHEAR MAY INCREASE A LITTLE IN THE NEXT DAY OR SO BUT A MORE
FAVORABLE UPPER-LEVEL ENVIRONMENT IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OVER
OPHELIA...ONCE THE HURRICANE BEGINS ITS WESTWARD TURN. A GRADUAL
STRENGHTENING IS INDICATED...BUT OPHELIA IS KEPT AS A CATEGORY ONE
HURRICANE. HOWEVER...TO ERR BY ONE OR TWO CATEGORIES IS NOT
IMPOSSIBLE...DUE TO OUR LACK OF SKILL IN FORECASTING RAPID
INTENSITY CHANGE.>>
A $75.00 solid state device will always blow first to protect a 25 cent fuse ~ Murphy's Law
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estatesalestuff
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posted on September 9, 2005 06:07:55 PM new
why does it have to have a westward turn? ... cannot it just turn east and go away?
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sparkz
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posted on September 9, 2005 06:53:20 PM new
One of the original options was that if this thing could move north fast enough, it could hitch a ride on a low dip in the jet stream that would send it out to sea. Unfortunately, it remained stationary too long that it missed this ride. Now, a high pressure system over N.C. or Va. will use it's clockwise winds to fetch it and bring it back to the East coast. The landfall prediction will change many times in the next few days, all the way from south Florida to Maryland. The only thing certain is, it will not hit JAX. Ralphie scared it away with his notorious BT hex.
A $75.00 solid state device will always blow first to protect a 25 cent fuse ~ Murphy's Law
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sparkz
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posted on September 9, 2005 08:41:50 PM new
Estatesalestuff...There is a faint glimmer of hope that this storm could snag the caboose of the last train out of town yet. It's a 100-1 long shot though. The northward speed has increased in the last 6 hours. Also, one major model shows the hurricane moving north and easing the threat to S.C. Here's the exact wording from NHC. Interpretate it any way you wish:
<<THE INITIAL MOTION IS A RATHER UNCERTAIN 055/8...UNCERTAIN BECAUSE
THE THE SHORT TERM MOTION SEEMS TO BE IN EXCESS OF 10 KT. THE
REASON FOR THE ACCELERATION IS NOT CLEAR...BUT MAY BE RELATED TO
UPPER-LEVEL WESTERLY FLOW. AS A TROUGH OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC
LIFTS OUT AND IS REPLACED BY RIDGING OVER THE EASTERN UNITED
STATES...OPHELIA IS EXPECTED TO SLOW AND LIKELY TURN BACK TOWARD
THE WEST OR WEST-NORTHWEST. THIS TRACK IS SUPPORTED BY ALL THE
LARGE-SCALE MODELS EXCEPT THE GFS...WHICH CALLS FOR A SLOW
NORTHWARD MOTION AFTER 24 HR.>>
If it doesn't make the connection, it will be about 4 days before anything concrete comes out of NHC. If it does make the connection, Ophelia is history.
A $75.00 solid state device will always blow first to protect a 25 cent fuse ~ Murphy's Law
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sparkz
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posted on September 10, 2005 08:20:07 PM new
Nate and Mary are history now, but Ophelia is very much alive as a category one hurricane. It has now stalled which will inhibit it's intensification. It could still reach Cat 2 before landfall, which is now projected to be around 8:00 PM EDT on Tuesday. The projected target is the coast at the S.C. - N.C. border, but agreement is still not unanimous on this and it will likely change a few more times. The general feeling is that it will hit a little further up the coast in N.C.In any event, communications with your buyers in the Carolinas may be difficult for awhile after Tuesday.
A $75.00 solid state device will always blow first to protect a 25 cent fuse ~ Murphy's Law
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niel35
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posted on September 11, 2005 06:03:36 PM new
Geez Sparky - we are having a storm like you can't believe right now. Heavy thunder and lighting and torrents of rain. My dogs are right beside me, even they are scared. Keep losing power too
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sparkz
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posted on September 11, 2005 06:24:15 PM new
Today should be a piece of cake compared to yesterday. There was a severe thunderstorm warning for Dade - Broward counties and a tornado touched down in North Miami. At least you won't have to worry about Ophelia. Those north of JAX will be uncomfortable for a few more days though.
A $75.00 solid state device will always blow first to protect a 25 cent fuse ~ Murphy's Law
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