posted on September 5, 2000 10:19:54 AM Forbes.com: 9/5/00 - News: UnhappyEBay Vendors Are Going, Going, Gone
"If the San Jose, Calif., company wants to continue growing, it needs to expand the site's services. But each time it tries, an affiliated group of buyers or sellers goes bonkers. "
posted on September 5, 2000 10:23:45 AM
"EBay's current sellers insist their opinions should be a key factor in business decisions. But groups like The Online Auction Users Association are a contentious bunch."
posted on September 5, 2000 10:45:05 AM
I think the most interesting point made in this article is this...
"Ebay is bombarded with confusing feedback from agitated users about nearly every decision it makes."
"It's really difficult to read the boards and react because you are seeing responses from passionate groups of folks who may or may not represent the majority."
I haven't seen you in ages! Aren't you the individual who brought to my attention the use of the word "execution" by Meg Whitman in her last quarterly letter to the community?
Well....I thought of you a few weeks ago, during my hazy waking moments early one morning, it occured to me that I could do some executions, too --- "I'm gonna git on uP & do some serious business around here and execute some DUST MITES today!" LOL
I'll tell ya that biz-term, execute, simply ignites the motivation even for the boring & ordinary!
posted on September 5, 2000 11:54:07 AM
True... but....
I don't know about the OAI messageboards, because I'm not there, but from reading (and occasionally responding -- as a buyer) the threads in AW, I can see exactly what the Forbes article and Amy are pointing out, but feel the sheer volume of agitation, and the level of anger and pessimism, and some of the well-written notes that discuss why they're concerned (or angry or pessimistic) should have been a warning sign about things to very seriously consider. OTOH, I'm sure they did very seriously consider these things before and during, but even then, probably not from an extensive "let's pretend to be in the trenches" viewpoint, focus groups or whatever or not (but that's just guessing on my part).
One other thing to realize is that the "may or may not represent the majority" thing actually cuts both ways. The other way is in the "tip of the iceberg" way: if a lot of users feel like coming to AW or other boards -- again or for the first time -- to talk and/or vent about what they see as major problems, there are probably 10-1000+ times more who feel the same but who aren't writing in boards like these. This would seem especially true when virtually all of the posted responses are negative or (at best) devil's advocate-style posts, even if boards often are a "venting" resource.
Even as "just" a buyer, I'm disgusted with essentially everything eBay has done in the past two months. DoubleClick is the biggest abomination here in my eyes, but that's followed by the other bugs (both of the "spy" kind and the crash kind), eBay's seeming attempts to disable people's AdSubtract software, how out of control the VERO program seems to be at times, and seeing how eBay seems to be fawning over DC and the other partners to what feels like the exclusion of buyers and sellers, while still not shutting down true problem sellers. Peeking at eBay Motors a couple months back didn't help, because the layout looked stupendously bizarre and virtually unusable. Not that I needed a car or parts through auction, but if I ever did, eBay would be low on the list of places to look, because I now know what a mess that looks like.
Plus, whether related to eBay or any of the above, or not, I started receiving lots of spam that's sort of auction related (get your merchant account, this CD was banned from eBay! etc), and the timing is suspect (but far from conclusive).
Even aside from the spam which eBay is probably blameless in, I've essentially had it with eBay. I've bid only once in the last two months, and while I might bid again, the draw is no longer there, in the sense that while the items are still more numerous than ever, I no longer trust the "venue" to do the right thing by its customers, direct or indirect, and I do little or no business with companies like that. I realize that's a perceptual thing, and filled with shades of grey, but I have yet to get significantly screwed in a transaction, with eBay sellers or anywhere offline, so I'd have to guess that means I must be doing something right (or I've been real lucky).
I'm starting to keep an eye on Yahoo auctions now, and even as a buyer, will be consciously de-emphasizing my checking out eBay auctions, in addition to my already ongoing severe decline in interest.
I'm not surprised a media company the size of Forbes picked up on the issue, and while I completely agree it is hard to tell whether online commentary/complaints are representative, and unentangling the influence of potentially unrelated issues (e.g. the regular summer slowdown that gets mentioned around AW) is difficult at best, I feel there is a definite problem.
Of course, that's still just my opinion.
----
What's being done in the name of direct marketing nowadays is crazy.
The above are all just my opinions, except where I cite facts as such.
Oh, I am not dc9a320 anywhere except AW. Any others are not me.
Is eBay is changing from a world bazaar into a bizarre world?
posted on September 5, 2000 12:01:19 PM
Maybe our sentiments are in the majority, maybe not. Shouldn't the issue simply be "will our business policies wreck the only way we've been making money thus far -- through person-to-person trading -- or not?"
What's the difference if we are a tiny minority? -- investigate if our concerns are valid. If they are, it matters not how many are complaining. We make you (ebay managment) aware of the issues, that's all. The silence of others may indicate happiness with these policies but it may just indicate apathy. It may not indicate anything at all.
James.
posted on September 5, 2000 12:22:19 PM
Jamesoblivion...if that tiny minority does not represent the vast majority's interest then it can matter.
The tiny minority's agenda could adversely affect the majority if it were acted on by ebay to the satisfaction of the minority.
As for those who don't say anything possibly being apathetic..not necessarily so.
A very small percentage of the ebay users even look at the boards (off or on ebay) much less post. Therefore, many are not even aware of the complaints that can be found on the boards. the fact that those who are happy with ebay don't present a counterpoint could be because they don't know about other's complaints.
Normally it is the unhappy camper who decides to speak up, not the happy camper. The guy who buys a lemon from Ford will complain to Ford, the person who is pleased with their Ford normally won't communicate with Ford how happy they are.
I do agree that all opinions by ebay users should be listened to and considered...but there is a problem if it is assumed that the minority who post to the boards or email ebay represent the opinions of ALL ebay users..or even a majority. In my opinion it is just as likely that those who are not speaking up are satisfied with things the way they are.
posted on September 5, 2000 12:41:58 PM
You can't do that Amy. Essentially you're postulating that only the dissatisfied post in boards and that those who are happy do not because they are unaware of the complaints of the dissatisfied.
You can't deny that there may be an even larger segment of the population who are dissatisfied and do not post.
If a sampling model were to be used it would have to conclude that the posting populace is a representative sampling of the populace at large.
posted on September 5, 2000 12:59:01 PMdc9a320: What a nice post, thank you for articulating alla your concerns as "just a bidder."
I was reading an article the other day where it was pointed out that in the RW, if ya get disgusted with a particular store, you're likely to still make the purchase -- as opposed to traveling across town to a different merchant, and how this is not true online, and that eBiz had better understand this loud and clear.
However, enough sellers have learned how to generate large amounts of sales on eBay and they are not likely to be leaving, as obviously eBay is far and away the best online auction house.
Soon there will be a huge influx of new bidders -- and this will, more importantly continue, well after the holiday season, as eBay is inaugerating an offline Ad Blitzkrieg and I'm certain not only that it will be "guderian-effective in 'execution'", lol, but that alotta currently never-been-to-eBay folks -- specifically those Upscale consumers, who happen to have large disposable incomes -- they are gonna be very impressed when they learn that eBay is not a cybergarage sale, much less an online "flea" market -- but rather eBay is the premier online ecommerce website to purchase virtually *anything*, and also, wonders!, have dozens upon dozens of choices for the particular item you're interested in.
posted on September 5, 2000 01:06:36 PMKRS says: If a sampling model were to be used it would have to conclude that the posting populace is a representative sampling of the populace at large.
Why is this? On what do you base the assertion that the posters to this board are a representative cross section of eBay users? It seems to me that based on that premise, and reading posts on AW for the last few weeks, that a high percentage of eBay users must be NARU.
posted on September 5, 2000 01:07:14 PM
KRS posits, "If a sampling model were to be used it would have to conclude that the posting populace is a representative sampling of the populace at large."
~ ~ ~
I do not think that that statement is accurate.
Indeed, the professionals at eBay who have advanced degrees in marketing and economics and experience in the real world of major bricks & mortar corporations --- they are all very familiar with the statistical analysis necessary to interpret polling results, as well as how to produce an ACCURATE random sampling.
Less that a percent of all eBay users EVER participate at any messageboard, not even lurking.
Although we provide interesting feedback to TPTB, there is NO way that we could possibly represent a true demographic sampling of eBay users.
I'm much more concerned, however, that eBay do its R&D with the ACTIVE BIDDER in mind, than try to make sense outta the OAI (= Online Auction Industry) Messageboards.
posted on September 5, 2000 01:43:10 PM
Oh, so OAI is a more general term, which would include AW. I thought it was a particular organization. Thanks for pointing that out, radh.
Like I said or at least implied before, it is essentially impossible to unentangle all the various causes and effects, whether they are the things AW posters haven't been liking lately, or other things, so for all I know, the "ad blitzkrieg" could come and draw in tons of new bidders (and more sellers).
The trouble with statistics is not the statistical analysis itself, but rather how information is fed into the process and how the post-analysis results are used.
Marketing surveys can be great, but not so much when their questions have inherent biases or other flaws, the sample size is to small, or if the results are misinterpreted afterwards.
Companies, even "experts," can still fool themselves into a course, or let a juandiced survey or interpretation convince them of a trend that is not there or will not be as strong as expected.
Plenty of businesses fail. Companies that have a better handle on statistical analysis will be better off, but not immune from misinterpretation or mishandled prioritization.
I don't pretend to imply that AW and other OAI boards are truly representative sample, and I would even take it as a given that it is not a random sample. Yet, it might be representative "enough," if for no other reason than the tip of the iceberg idea.
Online commentary can be the first warning signs of an unanticipated or underestimate response, or they can be just be an outlet for chronic complainers. Actually, I think they're both, with all of the in-between stuff too. I lurked on AW for awhile, and while people have always complained about eBay, it seems much worse as of late, which I treat as a potential warning sign, nothing more, nothing less.
Of course, I'm not working for eBay, so that's just my own opinion.
radh: true, eBay is probably angling to become another online "superstore" or whatever, and they are probably quite aware they are offending or even losing a certain amount of money over it, and perhaps expected this and made some educated guesses on what that cost would be, and where to draw the "I can live with that to build the glorious new future"-vs.-"Whoops, we're losing too many" line. Hmmm, I don't know if that made any sense, but I wonder.
P.S. The "just" a buyer bit doesn't really mean anything, except that as a customer of eBay's customers, rather than a customer of eBay itself, I feel like I'm a smaller cog in eBay's perception. Oddly, except for the Watch feature (which I have no interest in), I don't feel eBay's changes have done anything for buyers, and I don't see any of the changes as having been helpful for sellers. If so, that leaves only eBay and its new partners for possible short-term beneficiaries, which I suppose was the whole point.
P.P.S. Despite my perhaps fancy theoretical talk, I am not a statistician or economic expert, so take that as you will.
----
What's being done in the name of direct marketing nowadays is crazy.
The above are all just my opinions, except where I cite facts as such.
Oh, I am not dc9a320 anywhere except AW. Any others are not me.
Is eBay is changing from a world bazaar into a bizarre world?
posted on September 5, 2000 03:34:56 PM
Radh, Dr. Beetle,
You ask how can the posting populace be a representative sampling to which I would ask, how is it not that?
As in all such surveys or polls only the participating can be used for data. Amy is of the opinion that there are more happy campers than unhappy obes because they do not post (or complain to Ford), but the lack of voiced complaint is no more an accurate measure of happy ebayers than the measurable voiced complaint.
Those nonposting numbers cannot be added to either side of an argument any more reliably than the Neilsen Bros. can determine that you like "All in the Family" because you are silent on the subject.
posted on September 5, 2000 03:46:19 PM
radh- did not mean to call you a name, I was characterizing you, since I am still whiplashed from when you used to be an Ebay BEAR! I am sorry if it was offensive.
Reason is came out of me, I read UNSTOPPABLE and the image of a charging bull popped into my psyche, but it did not jibe with the article you linked which starts out by saying ebay is in fact "stopped" so I was wondering if you had some insight into why that was.
posted on September 5, 2000 04:09:01 PM
VeryModern: nah, NO - no! NO apology needed -- I am simply rotflol to be called an "eBay bull" -- I simply was TEASING you, in remembrance of the coke/pepsi marketing enlightenment you gave mE on the RC Cola, LOL.
I was actually ""*pretending*"" to not know what U meant, but that kinda stuff doesn't work so well on a messageboard, guess it requires RL.
I am currently laughing so hard about alla the posts over at the DNF board, that I cannot concentrate enuff to answer your query at this time.
please, excuse me until lateR. I have a bad case of the giggles...
posted on September 5, 2000 09:32:14 PM
For another point of view I would request you consider the recent Firestone tire issue.
I expect that 90 days ago most people in the United states that used or had ever used Firestone tires were generally satisfied with the product and had a positive opinion of the company. There were exceptions and information was available from other countries as well as US law suits but awareness was limited.
Today if were to ask users of Firestone tire how they feel about the product and/or the company, I'm sure the number and percentage of less than satisified customers would be much larger.
Most of the increase in negativity would have resulted due to people becoming aware of facts and corporate actions that had occured over an extended period of time.
My point is that some people know more details on which they base their opinion and others are unaware of specific details and base their opinion on very limited personal experience and factors like corporate advertising.
If you asked a broad segment of eBay users how they felt towards eBay and then took the twelve top concerns expressed on chat boards and asked how many issues they were aware off in some depth, I believe the less aware would be happier and the more aware would be concerned.
If the "happy" group then read a balance history of these issues I believe a repolling would show a substancial change toward concerned.
My point? The more people know about what is happening with eBay the less likely they are to be completely happy with eBay management.
Or, as people know more they find issues which cause them serious concerns.
The users of this board are quite knowledgeable, as a group, of eBay issues.
I respect them, I recongize their eBay and general knowledge and I believe the collective opinions as expressed in a broad sampling of posts is an accurate portrayal of both valid concerns and truth.
Years ago someone taught me "When you ask someone their opinion also ask them upon what it is based".
Now that I know more I don't trust either the Firestone or eBay top management.
I've written detail explainations in other threads upon what this negative opinion of eBay top management is based. Seach messages using my ID if you care to reads my comments.
If you are pleased with eBay's top management and the programs they have implemented that effect users please share what that positive feeling is based upon.
In particular I would like to know which of and why, competative banners, reserve fees, site unstability, Mega sellers, no live service, poor email communications, the VERo program, inaccurate AB information, poor refund policy or eBay Motors are reasons to be "Happy"?
If anything, eBays management is affraid that the collective opinions of the users here gets to be known by the general eBay user base and stockholders.
And eBays top management has good reasons be to affraid. They will change or be fired.
posted on September 5, 2000 11:00:22 PMradh: Do you have a link to the relevant DNF board? The only DNF board I can find has tons of 22:22:22 or 11:11 notes that I don't understand the purpose of, and other bits that don't seem to have relevance to the new feature of concern here.
Are DNF's more chat-like in nature, or am I not finding the right board?
Thanks!
----
What's being done in the name of direct marketing nowadays is crazy.
The above are all just my opinions, except where I cite facts as such.
Oh, I am not dc9a320 anywhere except AW. Any others are not me.
Is eBay is changing from a world bazaar into a bizarre world?
posted on September 5, 2000 11:13:10 PM
DC - Some of the best of the Snipers use the DNF board to meet at late each evening.
To show-off, pratice their skills , teach and have some fun they target the eBay time of ten twenty two and twenty two seconds.
That shows as 22:22:22 on the heading of a post to record what time the message was entered.
They attempt to send in a post that gets recorded as 22:22:22. Equal to a zero time remaining in auction snipe. The best can submit 3 or more posts that all get that specific time stamp.
To pratice or continue the fun they will also call other times and post to that exact time stamp. Much like calling a pool shot. Seven ball off two rails and into the side pocket.
Look at it again with this in mind and it may make more sense. Boys and Girls having fun.
posted on September 6, 2000 11:51:36 AM
[b]reston ray wrote, "If anything, eBays management is affraid that the collective opinions of the users here gets to be known by the general eBay user base and stockholders.
And eBays top management has good reasons be to affraid. They will change or be fired."
~ ~ ~ ~
I disagree.
Wall Street is enthused by eBay, and as a Fortune Magazine article recently said at the end of an article about disgrunted sellers, something like, that Wall Street was already onto bigger issues, like what the complaints were, were a big Hohum.
Someday, in the future, there will be lotsa articles and books about eBay's stellar success and the (then finally recognized) reasons for it.
Meantime, expert journalists and financial analysts seem to be in a mass state of confusion about ecommerce, although I did note that a Goldman Sachs analyst did mention that eBay had unstoppable momentum.
As Zina once said in another messagethread, Pierre Omidyar's vision is so SIMPLE, that it is very difficult for most to understand, but I'm sure that in the future, there will finally be a "eureka!" and finally some knowledgable analysis will proceed.
Market research has shown that people who communicate with a company tend to be from two ends of the spectrum, those who are unhappy and those who are happy. The silent middle doesn't communicate (unless asked in a survey). Unless you conduct a systematic survey, you don't know how many people are happy with a service or unhappy. (and you have to make a real effort to contact those people who are difficult to find - in order to be really sure it is representative).
