posted on September 24, 2000 04:27:31 AM
Val bought three identical, HTF "military widgets" in August at a garage sale for $4 each. These are weird, collector items and not the sort of thing you can actually use in everyday life unless you fly an F-18 (or occasionally like to get dressed up weird with the Missus); in fact, you have to be attached to a fighter plane to get this widget to work. They are not "seasonal" items. A similar number of competing items was listed during each auction period. The same listing, category, and description was used with all three; the photos were of the different items but were virtually identical (all taken in the same place at the same time from the same angle). Same opening bid and TOS.
Fist one got 207 hits, sold 8/15 for $18.
Second one got 208 hits, sold 8/24 for $36.
Third one got 157 hits, sold 9/23 for $80.
Weird. Auctions #1 and 2 got virtually the same hits, but high bid on auction #2 was double that of #1; auction #3 got only 75% the hits as the first two, but more than doubled the high bid of #2.
Anybody care to hypothesize as to why?
[ edited by HartCottageQuilts on Sep 24, 2000 04:31 AM ]
posted on September 24, 2000 04:50:40 AM
Did auction#3 get up to a high amount fairly early? Maybe less people were looking at it after it got out of their price range.
The F18 is still fully operational, and I cannot believe that the USAF would be selling ANY items relating to this aircraft.
Sort of like the classified tapes that would up at a yard sale, these could be stolen Miliary property. Worse, your widget could be classified material.
If, on the odd chance that this item is legit, the USAF is required to mark the item with a permanent marking stating that it was released. Is your widget marked as surplus?
This should be reported to the USAF immediately. Too many stolen classified military items are finding their way into the wrong hands.
posted on September 24, 2000 07:27:02 AM
I've decided that it's really a matter of "hit and miss". In this case, apparently the two bidders willing to pay the most for the widget found #3 and had a bidding war. They probably didn't notice that there were 2 other identical widgets up for auction at a lower price. Probably has something to do with who had which auctions on their watch list and actually went back and tried to snipe them, too.
posted on September 24, 2000 08:21:58 AM
No, it proves nothing, IMO.
This business is too unpredictable. If I try to predict what an item will bring I guess wrong half of the time. Sometimes I guess too low, which is nice.
Case in point: Widget of mine brought 21.50 with 6 bids first time. Bidder chose to forget about it and not pay. Second time around it's bringing around 145.00 and has had 35 bids. No way to predict that. The most likely explanations are that it closed in late August the first time, when things were slow, ebay was having problems, etc...and/or...this time it's going for far more than it's worth.
Edited to add: This thing has been on for 6 full days and has still has only 52 hits, but 35 bids with only 4 bidders. One guy must have bid abot 30 times trying to get the high bid. Go figure.
[ edited by loosecannon on Sep 24, 2000 08:29 AM ]
posted on September 24, 2000 10:38:44 AM
I have seen one item going for anywhere between $1 and $16 on eBay. Part of this is definitely timing and placement. However, I would never use an eBay closing bid to figure a value.
One of the reasons I don't try an judge based on eBay is that most bidders really do not think about value--they get cheap on their bids or they go in the other direction and bid with their hormones. I think the former is the operative norm on eBay.
Since these did better just get out the champagne!
posted on September 24, 2000 12:11:59 PM
Hi, RayGomez makes a very important point. I do not recommend selling military items that might even possibly be classified or sensitive. I have a recent book on U.S. Marine Corp. anti-terrorist practices. Bought it at a flea market. No way that book is going on eBay. Maybe in 50 years I'll turn it into a computer game.
This is a general suggestion since I don't know what the item in question is.
posted on September 24, 2000 12:16:20 PM
Hi, HCQ -
This aspect of eBay has always amazed me too, and believe me, I've studied long and hard on it.
If you want THEORIES, mine is that many (perhaps most?) bidders are not as slavishly devoted to their eBay buying as we might like to hope they are.
Just out of curiosity, did any of your losing bidders on auctions one and two bid on auctions two or three? My guess is they probably did not - or at least, that has been my experience. I can have two or more bidders battling it out over an item....then list an identical item, and attract a totally different set of bidders....or none at all! This works in reverse too, as in something that didn't even get a bid when first listed becomes very desirable the second time.
Many here may suggest that the back-up bidders won a like item in another auction, and while I am sure this is sometimes the case, my personal follow-ups do not bear this out.
Pay periods and charge card billing cycles may be factors for some, if not for all.
I know most of the posters here don't like 10-day auctions, but I prefer them IF I can get my listings on so they cover 2 weekends.
My experience in the shop has taught me that the majority of people are not 'out looking' two week-ends in a row; it's either/or. If this is applicable to eBay as well, and I don't KNOW that it is, then this week-end Group A has weddings, visits to parents (or children), baseball games, or the company picnic...but NEXT week-end they will stay close to home and cut the grass, clean house, and maybe surf eBay - while Group B, who stayed home last week-end doing these things, has the busier agenda.
posted on September 24, 2000 02:09:37 PM
Nope - definitely not classified, just not the kind of garment you can wear to mow the lawn.
sg52, like you I see NO pattern whatsoever. None of the losing bidders on #1 bid on 2 or 3, and none of #2 bid on #3 - you get the idea. Whole new pool of folks.
It was actually kinda cute. The $36 bidder was really, really excited He'd wanted to be a fighter pilot but found out in training he was deaf in one ear - so he became a fireman instead (he's now the fire chief). This item was the last he needed for full F-18 regalia, and he was thrilled.
Funny thing is, I bet there's at least one fighter pilot out there who collects firemen's stuff We all want what we don't have, I guess.
Oh - I didn't note the # of bids on each auction. #1 - 3 bidders; #2 - 4 (with the most hits); #3 - 10 (double the bids with fewer hits!).
posted on September 24, 2000 02:18:29 PM
LOL,
I've had a lot of items (one of kind art items) that will get no bids the first time, I cut the price down a bit, and the next week they go for double the starting bid the first time.
But I agree, - it depends on whether people feel rich (just got paid, haven't paid the bills yet), what day of the week it is and what the weather is like, whether it's a holiday weekend or not (nobody bids on the holidays hardly) - and whether they are just about to have to pay for something (like school clothes). It also depends on whether the auction ends out when people are bored. Auctions that end in the middle of the night don't do as well.
posted on September 24, 2000 03:23:43 PM
Keziak, the book wasn't "published" to the general public, it is a softcover training manual for the U.S. Marine Corp., probably a special anti-terrorist unit. It's not the kind of item I'd want to see on eBay.
posted on September 24, 2000 03:47:32 PM
"The F18 is still fully operational, and I cannot believe that the USAF would be selling
ANY items relating to this aircraft."
Not true. There is surplus/decommissioned/expired equipment related to this aircraft available on the surplus market.
"If, on the odd chance that this item is legit, the USAF is required to mark the item with a permanent marking stating that it was released. Is your widget marked as surplus?"
Again, not true. They are not required to mark it.
"This should be reported to the USAF immediately. Too many stolen classified military items are finding their way into the wrong hands."
Don't bother calling unless you suspect it *actually* is stolen.
(I have been a buyer and reseller through the GSA and DRMS - Defense Reutilization Marketing Services - until they made it too difficult for the wee folk to get a piece of the pie.)
posted on September 25, 2000 11:54:49 AM
HCQ asked, "Does this prove anything?"
~ ~ ~ ~ ~
Yeah, I'd say it "proves" quite a bit.
First, it proves that if one chooses to participate in online auctions for their livlihood, that they'd better understand the intrinsically permanent FLUCTUATING nature of bidding activity - and that, without using reserves, it is impossible to accurately forecast future sales.
Secondly, it proves, in my estimation, that FLEXIBILITY is a trait that will assist an individual to be successful in this marketplace - as, truly, there are SO very few variables in online auctioneering that one has ANY control, whatsoever, over.
posted on September 25, 2000 02:46:16 PM
Well, since I've been up north and off the internet for 3 weeks and now have a zillion things to put on, I HOPE it means the browsing season is over and the buying season has begun !!!
posted on September 25, 2000 04:19:49 PM
HCQ...no rhyme, no reason...no logic to it at all!
That's part of what makes this so much fun, the total randomness of it.
It's gambling without the drawbacks of going to Vegas. In Vegas the house always wins in the end...on ebay the odds are in OUR favor. We win more often than we lose...and sometimes we hit the jackpot!
He'd wanted to be a fighter pilot but found out in training he was deaf in one ear - so he became a fireman instead (he's now the fire chief). This item was the last he needed for full F-18 regalia, and he was thrilled.