posted on April 15, 2001 10:41:33 AM
priest ...
You post this as if it's some sort of news, and has some dire significance.
FYI, auctions counts decline a bit EVERY Sunday as the 7 and 10-day counts are often started on a day that will make them end on Sunday. See http://www.medved.net/cgi-bin/cal.exe?ESHMm032001 for a graph of the "weekly wiggle".
And http://www.medved.net/cgi-bin/cal.exe?ESHYy2001 shows it for the ebntire year. http://www.medved.net/cgi-bin/cal.exe?ESHAall shows the whole history!
A "decline" 0f 400,000 when the totals are around 5,500,000 is less than a 10% wiggle in the totals, not a "plunge". Yeah, it looks dramatic on that graph, but just check where the baseline is.
posted on April 15, 2001 12:28:05 PM
Um...you might not have noticed but we are in a holiday weekend as well as just ending a week that's spring break for most kids.
Probably a number of sellers who are parents were busy taking care of their kids who are at home this week, when they would normally have time to themselves while the kids are at school.
Large numbers of people regard this past week and weekend as the holiest week of the year. Just speaking for myself, this week is a LOT more important than Christmas, in terms of religion. It doesn't mean I stopped listing but I got too busy to list much.
Many people are involved with things outside ebay this week, so it's natural the counts would plunge.
posted on April 15, 2001 12:50:21 PM
I check these numbers regularly, not because they have any direct effect on my listings, as relaxation reading like others might read the baseball stats or the going ons of the entertainment community.
They might provide some insights but, so many variables exist and important information like average closing ratio plus average selling price is not available, they at best show some long term trends.
The trend since early March has been for less auctions to be posted each week. The greatest number at any time during the week has been progressivly lower and the same for the lowest number at any time of the week.
The drop has averaged about 1% per week for six weeks on a base number that reached almost 6 million.
Certain assumptions and corrections are made by the people who provide these charts, so the number may not be an exact count, but as long as they use the same formula each week, the trends are valid.
Look at the graphs for any day, week or month and you will see wide swings that reflect all sorts of short term factors but the yearly charts most clearly show important trends.
The trend at this time last year was growth in these numbers which then evened off during the traditionally slower summer selling period.
Several changes this year cause an under report of these numbers, such as BIN and shortening to 7 day listings as a result of the 10 cent fee, while double category listing increases the number.
Because these options have been available for sometime I don't believe they are the full cause of the recent downward trend.
Given all this number trivia I am the first to admit I have no idea what it all means.
No more than a warmer or colder short period of weather in my area is any proof of longterm, worldwide weather patterns.
Given the state of the economy you could say sales are falling. I lose some enthusiasm for posting when sales slow down.
But reasonable people could make nine or ten other conclusions and it may be the accumulation of a number of factors.
And it should be mentioned that total sales and/or profits may be steady or climbing for eBay or sellers even with a small fall-off of total listings.
They're just some numbers, may be worth watching over the coming weeks or months and don't of themselves prove anything.
Anyone who read this far likely now knows more useless information than they ever wanted and still faces the real question "Should I post auctions over the next few days in light of the major site changes that eBay has announced for later in the week?)
Now if someone can provide some short term useful information then that might actually be helpful for myself and other readers.
posted on April 15, 2001 03:42:29 PM
Since January, it's definitely a downward trend with normal upward spikes. When you look at the charts, pull up monthly or yearly charts instead of daily or weekly; consequently, the picture is more informative.
