posted on May 19, 2002 06:48:10 AM
From the May 20, 2002 "Antique Week"
"Of the collectibles studied in AuctionBytes.com annual Collectibles Price Index, 80% averaged lower prices in the last 12 months compared to the previous year-the average fall set at around 11% and 25% down from 2000"
"The average sell through rate for the collectibles surveyed on eBay was 55% in 2002, compared to 72% in 2000 according to AuctionBytes.com"
I wonder if eBay knew this before their latest rate hike? Or would they have even cared.
posted on May 19, 2002 07:52:18 AM
One thing to consider is that there have been nearly that many new people sign up as sellers at ebay. This has to be considered as one of the reasons that so many more items have been posted. And with volume and competition, prices get driven down. Also when there are more items to choose from, the chances of something not seller increase. It used to be the antique dealers could set prices to almost anything they wanted. Now, that has changed. The will have to adjust. The rules have changed and we all have to adjust or move out of the way.
As far as the price hike on ebay fees, you can bet they knew this. That is why they raised the fees so they could keep their revenues up. They knew the sell through rate was dropping so they compensated by raising fees.
posted on May 19, 2002 08:16:40 AM
Simply 'Supply & Demand' equation at work. More supply than demand means falling prices. It will probably continue with this trend.
posted on May 19, 2002 08:59:05 AM
unlike other auction sites,ebay uses the listing fee to discourage junks ,if you are not sure the item will sell,then dont list it,else you will be wasting your listing fee.unfortunately,ebay is becoming a clearing house,if you need cash fast and dont care to make a good profit,clear on ebay.
many brick and mortar stores with nice pieces have tried to sell on ebay with a reserve price and the bill adds up each month,they are now letting the items sit on their store shelfs,stores cannot afford to keep wasting a hundred dollar or more each month just to see reserves not met.
so low end and high end items do not sell well on ebay,what most bidders want is your great aunt heirloom which you will list at 9.99 becasue you dont know any better or great aunt is so kind and ignorant she wants to do charity on ebay
posted on May 19, 2002 09:58:35 AM
I'm not sure I agree about the supply and demand aspect. If supply were so much greater than it was a year ago, I'd be seeing a lot more listings in the categories I shop in. But I'm not.
But I agree that prices realized are lower now. I pulled out a box of my own cherished antiques to raise some quick cash. Results were mixed. An extremely valuable piece got almost no bids. A few lesser pieces went for much more than I'd paid for them. And there are some items I won't even bother listing because I can see there are a few identical items that aren't getting any bids.
Case in point: Candlewick punch bowl set with 12 cups. I paid $50 for it, but I'd be lucky to get $100 today. Heck with that; I'll wait for Christmas.
Another case: Avidly-collected silversmithed piece from the early 1800. I could sell this in the U.K. in a heartbeat. In USA-dominated eBay, no bids.
Another: Antique tea strainer by America's foremost silver retailer, ebony handle, wonderful repousse design, bidding only goes to 1/3 of what it ought. I'll hang onto it.
posted on May 19, 2002 10:53:09 AM
I sell mostly Collectible Tools and prices are way down for me. Some down 50% or more. My sell through rate is still good because I research every item before putting it on. It takes a few minutes to research but that is better than paying eBay to find out it does not sell or that there are 25 of them running and bringing less than I will sell mine for.
I think the supply of tools is much greater than a few years ago. The problem I see is that most of them are not in good condition and a lot of the people selling them do not know what they are or how to describe them. It has flooded eBay with junk tools and makes it very hard for the buyers to spend the time to look through it all to find some good items.
posted on May 19, 2002 11:04:25 AM
I think that for many antiques there is a slowdown right now.
It seems as though everyone is an "antiques dealer" - whether in a mall or online. Both of these allow people to indulge in the business on a small scale. Having these dealers keeps a lot of stuff "in float" - selling from dealer to dealer, or just sitting on the shelf, waiting for "the right person to come along".
With on-line auctions, it becomes more readily apparent that there are not enough end collectors to support the prices asked for most of these "antiques" or "vintage" or whatever.
Ebay is not to blame (I think there are a number of reasons for the decline in business), it is only helping people hit the brick wall faster since it is such a direct selling mechanism. Ebay is still a good way to get top prices for certain categories of items that are both scarce and desirable - anything else will be a crap shoot.
I plan to start listing again over the next few weeks, but very selectively.
posted on May 19, 2002 03:00:20 PMCandlewick punch bowl set with 12 cups. I paid $50 for it, but I'd be lucky to get $100 today
Grrrr......
You got a great deal.
Personally I think that the reason eBay is raising fees is BECAUSE of the fact that less items are selling.
Less FVF's = Less $ for eBay.
I would expect another rate hike before the end of the year, and amount of items listed on eBay will taper off within a year. Most of the bidders who were looking for that "one of a kind" item have already found it. Those who were looking for the latest in electronics have found them elsewhere on the web, and they came with a warranty (unlike most items sold on eBay).
However, I will give eBay credit. Their Live Auctions seem to be picking up. While there were only about 12-15 live auctions scheduled at any given time about 2 months ago, now there are 30.
And, of course, live auctions have a 100% sell through rate.
posted on May 19, 2002 06:19:49 PM
Listings are up from over a year ago. Some categories may be seeing less items while others get more. Look at chart:
http://www.medved.net/cgi-bin/cal.exe?ESHAall
[ edited by quickdraw29 on May 19, 2002 06:26 PM ]
posted on May 19, 2002 06:45:21 PMListings are up from over a year ago. Some categories may be seeing less items while others get more.
While it is true that listings are up, SALES (which is what is important) are down. This means that while eBay is generating more revenue from listing fees, they are generating less revenue from FVF's, which is the main source of their income from fees. This is why they keep raising fees - to offset the fall in FVF's they are receiving.
Look at the USPS. They were doing really well, then things went south. They raised rates - many people left for UPS. They generated less income than before (due to less people sending packages with them), and raised rates again. More people left. Now they are raising rates again, and virtually eliminating any reason to keep shipping with them. They are slowly driving themselves out of business.
Unless eBay comes up with a major money-maker soon, they will go down the same path.
posted on May 19, 2002 07:22:58 PM
The problem with eBay is too many sellers selling too many items for the number of buyers. That's why 3 or 4 years ago on eBay the prices the auctions got where so high as compared to the current poor situation. If eBay would make a steep increase in fees that would drive many sellers from the site and the balance of sellers to buyers would get favorable again and the prices that the auction go for would rise.
Like the earth's ecology the balance of sellers to buyers is very delicate.
This post is sure to ruffle a few feathers.
posted on May 19, 2002 11:35:10 PM
While ebay gets less FVF due to sales decline, they do get some of it back from relists that aren't selling. Some sellers may even be doing three or four relists, or they may wait and do relists later.
posted on May 20, 2002 04:29:54 AM
REAMOND - I believe the "metrics" have been carefully altered in the face of a changing economy to reflect what de gubbament wan' dem to say....
posted on May 20, 2002 10:46:54 AM
I just got back from a big flea market we have on Monday morning and ran into 2 dealers I have not seen in a long time. Both were selling on eBay and have decided to start selling at the flea market again due to no sales on eBay.
They were both selling a lot of stuff to other dealers that are headed home right now to put those items on eBay to sell. Needless to say those items have been tried and failed on eBay
Looks to me like the only one making money is eBay on all those insertion fees.
posted on May 20, 2002 11:04:54 AM
"While ebay gets less FVF due to sales decline, they do get some of it back from relists that aren't selling."
Actually, if the numbers in this article are indicitive of the collectibles market across ebay, they are in fact making up for lost FVFs in sheer volume. Here's some numbers from the article:
For the "lava lamp" category, the sell-trough rate dropped from 81% in 2000 to 49% in 2002. Average sale price dropped from $41.55 to $23.42. But the total listings rose from 248 to 2,000. Do the math - price drops, sell through drops, but total volume increases almost ten times so ebay is actually taking in more total FVFs.
Here's stats from their GI Joe category:
2000 - 1500 Auctions; Average Price $83.52; Sell-through rate not mentioned
2001 - 14,000 Auctions; Average Price $50.49; Sell-through rate 35.7%
2002 - 29,000 Auctions; Average Price $41.80; Sell-through rate 38.4% (increased)
Again, ebay's total take on FVFs shot through the roof, not to mention the listing fees.
If the problem, as posed by the original poster, is that ebay continues to increase rates despite the lower sell through and lower realized prices - I have to say, just look at these numbers, do the math, and see that from ebay's standpoint, there's no reason to discontinue rate increases in the forseeable future. These declines are definitely of concern to the individual seller, but with increased listings like that, there's no "message" being sent to ebay.
Actually, there is one thing that both ebay and its sellers need to be concerned about - the impact of the USPS rate hikes and Priority Mail zoning. I'm willing to bet that ebay won't increase their own rates until after the fallout from the USPS price hike is known. Ebay's huge pool of bidders is their biggest asset. When the cost to ship relatively small items across country doubles in price overnight, I think that's going to impact the bidders, which will impact the sellers, which will impact ebay's bottom line.
posted on May 20, 2002 03:50:52 PM
To say eBay makes most of it's money on insertion or listing and relisting fees from items that do not sell does not make sense. Certianly eBay makes a lot of money off those fees but does so because sellers are willing to gamble with the fees because they do sell items often. If nobody sold anything or lost more money then made money then eBay would slowly go down in listing numbers. Those listed items numbers have been rising ever since eBay started.
posted on May 20, 2002 04:33:26 PM
The quality of items in Antiques and Collectibles has declined enormously. The Glass category is becoming over run with reproductions and well,(no way to put it nicely) crap.
I believe there are not as many buyers for the items offered. So yes, it boils down to "supply and demand". Why the amount of buyers has declined is a subject for a whole other thread. But part of the reason is the decline in quality.
posted on May 20, 2002 05:43:51 PM
The number of bidders has increased but not enough to keep up with the greater increase in the number of sellers.
There seems to be a reverse trend where a few years ago many items were bought at flea markets for selling on eBay and now many eBay items are bought for selling at flea markets. Sometimes the buyers at flea markets are not quite as astute as the veteran eBay buyers.
posted on May 21, 2002 08:40:55 AM
At Flea Markets the buyer doesn't have the ability to do a nationwide if not a worldwide search for similar items and compare prices with a few mouse clicks. This type of pricing competition is why many B&M retailers are hesitant to sell online.
The Flea markets also have the impulse buy. Seasoned eBay buyers now know to look around before they buy.
posted on May 21, 2002 12:43:27 PM
Some things are up and some or down I found in the summer you have to roll with the flow.
it is the same with a B/M Store also. Some of my items are moveing real good some are not. We just have to find more of the items to sell that are moving.
posted on May 21, 2002 12:55:15 PM
Interesting comments.
I don't know a lot about antiques or their market, but I do see a lot more of this stuff being sold in stores, malls and garage sales. I'm wondering if the apparent increase in items being sold person-to-person is the result of an increased awareness of the value of some of these things? I suspect many more folks are digging around in Granny's attic and Uncle Fred's old barn looking for stuff they can sell.
Personally, if I *was* into antiques, I'm not sure I would buy from eBay sellers based on the number of horror stories I read about fakes and rip offs.
posted on May 21, 2002 07:04:28 PM
Shortly after Auctionbytes.com released their numbers, we released our data at TIAS. Here is the press release.
-----------------------------
eBay sales continue to drop for antiques & collectibles.
The following is the updated sales data for antiques and collectibles
sold on eBay for Jan - May 2002.
This aggregate data is based on the sale of 23,000 antiques and
collectibles sold by TIAS and AntiqueArts merchants on eBay.
--
From Jan - May of 2002 the average ticket price of an item sold on
eBay by a TIAS dealer was $41.80. This is down from $50.49
for Jan - May of 2001, which was down from $83.52 for
Jan - May of 2000.
--
From Jan - May of 2001 35.7% of items listed on eBay by TIAS dealers
were sold on eBay.
From Jan - May of 2002 38.4% of items listed on eBay by TIAS dealers
were sold on eBay.
--
The average price for antiques and collectibles sold on eBay has
dropped by 17%, but 2.7% more of the items that are listed on
eBay are selling.
"It's simple market economics. eBay is a very efficient market.
The market is flooded with goods. Prices are being driven down."
said Phillip Davies president of tias.com "I think the 2.7% increase
in the number of items that are selling on eBay is because merchants
are becoming much more conservative about what they list on eBay.
They can't afford to spend time and money listing items that don't sell."
-----------------------------
What I find really interesting is that I think both the Auctionbytes and TIAS data are showing that the market is about to level off. I'd estimate this will happen some time next year. When it levels off, the average ticket price will probably be in the mid $30 range.
After that happens, where does the market go? How many dealers will list at those prices? If dealers start to pull out, prices will probably start to rise again.
posted on May 22, 2002 05:52:04 AM
A major problem with these statistics is that, well, to put it politely, many sellers have "creative thinking" about what constitutes antique or collectible.
