posted on December 8, 2002 07:54:15 PM new
eBay set a record of 10,410,000 Listing on 12/06/02, with the help of the March 3 to 5, 2002, free listing day for eBay stores. It reached that goal at a price. There is more sellers than buyers now, it is surprising to see that most of the items on page one of "Closing Auctions," do not have bids, regardless of the starting price or category, and the one's that have bids, only have one or maybe two.
eBay has reached that goal at a very high price, there is no fee on the free listing (LF) and there is no fee on the closing fees (FVF). So to reach the goal of 10.4 million listing has cost a pretty penny to the shareholders. The harm does not stop there, the seller also suffer, since with too many items for sale, it is a buyer's paradise. If you need anything, you just need to surf to see how cheaply you can buy that item, since the supply exceeds the demand.
I have seen "view seller's other items" pages with no bids or just very few. It is just me that noticed that, or is that the case. To night, I spoke with a Power Seller that has not received a bid since Friday.
The price of the free listing day, seller will not get a decent price for their merchandise during that free listing period.
posted on December 8, 2002 08:06:28 PM new
It's been that way for the last three or four years at ebay. For every active buyer there it seems like there are at least three active sellers. Yet ebay tries as hard as it can to get more sellers to the site.
Any sellers that were lucky enough to be selling on ebay five years ago know that the current ebay and that old ebay are two very different animals. Five years ago ebay was a total Heaven on Earth for sellers but now ebay is a total Heaven on Earth for buyers. Any ebay seller that does very well now in the current ebay environment is a great seller in my book.
posted on December 8, 2002 08:22:23 PM new
Hey, USMarines. LTNS!
To stimulate sales, I recently cut my minimum opening bid in half. Sales did pick up considerably. It just means I'm working harder now. I still make more money per hour from eBay than my RL job. (Which is a good thing because the job barely covers rent.)
I expect we'll see some seller attrition soon. Not everyone can cut their prices in half.
Sun Microsystems may be doing well on eBay, but otherwise their sales are dragging and they are laying off a large percentage of their workforce. A company like Sun can't survive on liquidations alone.
I don't see eBay becoming an online retail store any time soon. eBay is doing right in moving away from collectibles into more mainstream items. But they should not abandon the virtual flea market aspect of auctions. As always, eBay buyers are looking for bargains.
posted on December 8, 2002 08:37:57 PM new
I think success on ebay is tied to what you sell - and a willingness/ability to change if and when conditions or competition warrants.
I used to sell a lot of used Kitchenaid Mixers on ebay- but the market for them has
gone to hell because of the influx of dealers listing and SELLING 50-60 NEW ones per week for only slightly more than I used to get for used ones, so I moved on. These dealers are listing at 10-15 over their cost but I suppose are making more because of the "handling" charges combined with the low rates they get from UPS.
If you're locked into a product line that has been "discovered" and can't/won't change you ARE in trouble.
posted on December 9, 2002 06:52:43 AM new
Lucy - I don't have anything anymore- but you might try Ed Herbert, ebay username eherbert - he deals in a lot of vintage stuff.
posted on December 9, 2002 05:41:26 PM new
I don't think there are more sellers than buyers, if that were the case there'd be 50 million items for sale.
Demand is definitely lower, but that seems to be the case at most retailers because mail volume at the PO is pathetic.
I am suferring from the "one biditis." It may mean the spenders are broke and the scavengers are the only one's left.
posted on December 9, 2002 05:43:13 PM new
how about bidders getting fed up with the stuff they are getting?
i bidded on ivory items -many do not know or claim they are just misinformed of bone vs ivory,or even plastic versus ivory,now why should they list an item as antique ivory when it is plastic or bone??
this is what keeps the bidders AWAY FROM BIDDING or JUST BID LOW.
posted on December 9, 2002 06:43:18 PM new
Quickdraw:
My catagory does well, rubber stamps, I usually sell all I list, it has slowed down a little for the holidays though.
Almost anything to do with a hobby is easy to sell on eBay.
posted on December 9, 2002 07:04:39 PM new
This is my second holiday season selling on eBay. I sell sheets of Christmas Seals. Last year I only had 11 different years of sheets to sell and was very busy. This year I am selling 80 different years of seals and I do half the business. I do notice that there are more sellers in my category, and that the quality of the items has decreased along with the price. Also, the bids are not there. All my items "sell" at the last moment. There has been a gradual decline of sales during the year, along with the steady increase of sellers.
I am adding other items in an attempt to offset the declining sales. This has helped somewhat. I also have an eBay store (dud) and an AW store (bigger dud). Something has to work as I have a ton of money invested in inventory. At least the value is there - collection wise.
posted on December 9, 2002 07:10:40 PM new
If eBay wants to attract more buyers, then
they need to lower seller's fees. I would
suggest $0.05 or $0.10 to list anything and
a 10% FVF. Simple is better. Seller's
would be happy to pay a higher FVF to ensure
more sales! More sellers will be stimulated
to lower their opening bids, which will mean
more bids, which will mean more sales, which
will mean more profit for eBay. They won't
do that though, because they are stupid and
greedy. They aren't known as FeeBay for
nothing. Just like cutting taxes stimulates
an economy, this WOULD stimulate eBay!
---
"Cannot say. Saying, I would know. Do not
know, so cannot say". -- Zathras (Babylon 5)
posted on December 9, 2002 09:09:53 PM new
From what I hear, it is not only e-Bay where sales are way down. I hear flea market and antique sellers complaining all the time about how rotten things are. And why did Ford and GM have no interest loans and why would retailers be discounting so greatly to stimulate Christmas sales? Even Bush made some cabinet changes because Clinton's statement about his defeat of Dad was " It's the economy, Stupid" applies today. Unemployment is quite high and even people employed are cocerned about the near future
posted on December 10, 2002 12:55:32 AM new
I doubt eliminating listing fees and raising final value fees would stimulate sellers to lower their opening bids. I imagine instead it would cause many sellers to list garbage at a very high opening bid.
If eBay raised fees 20% last year, but there are now twice as many sellers, that would seem to be further evidence that listing fees are not an issue for many sellers. Raising fees slightly might have the effect of reducing some low-price/profit items, but eBay can't afford to alienate sellers and by extension our customers. It seems eBay is maintaining a good balance (that is, a profitable balance for eBay).
And while a poor economy may be discouraging sales of luxury items such as collectibles and antiques, it may actually be increasing business on eBay overall. I've seen a big increase in the number of cheap liquidation/refurbished electronics, for example.
IMO, the single most damaging factor to eBay sales is sellers themselves. Not professionals, or mom and pops, but unscrupulous and unprofessional sellers offering bogus items such as fat burning pills, bootlegged software, fake designer fashions, get rich quick schemes, those who charge grossly inflated shipping and handling, and outright cons and frauds.
Those are the sellers who maintain eBay's image of a grand shill game. As more sharks are moving in, the buyers are moving away. It is the decay of the eBay "community."
posted on December 10, 2002 12:47:28 PM new
zathras11
you want a 10 % FVF?
I assume you sell reallllly cheap stuff.
it's al;ready hard with the 5.25 % FVF!
posted on December 10, 2002 03:01:44 PM new
It's Yahoo Auctions that needs to have zero listing fees and a fat FVF like 10% or even 15%. On ebay many sellers get eaten alive with the hefty 30 cent minimum listing fee for 7 days on lower value items or slow-to-sell items. Many quality items like books or postcards take a while to find that right buyer for the item. Listing on Half for free is a joke as most books are down to the minimum 75 cents.
If Yahoo Auctions would start a no listing fee with a hefty FVF they would make an incredible amount of money. Instead they go with a stupid 5 cents for 10 days and an ebay-like FVF structure. Even a nickel a listing will eat you alive if you try to list a thousand postcards or books.
posted on December 10, 2002 05:30:19 PM new
10% FVF? Fuggedaboudit. That would wreck sellers of low cost items like me. When I add up all the eBay, AW and Paypal fees it makes me sweat.
posted on December 10, 2002 08:52:31 PM new
I wish there was a way to get accurate sell through rates from eBay. eBay has the info but won't release it.
I think listing will continue to climb for a while longer as large companies decide they have to have a presence on eBay.
posted on December 10, 2002 10:27:44 PM new
Hi everyone:
Thank you for all your opinions. Yes, someone on the past had published Sell-Thru-Rates for eBay and Yahoo for some specific categories. I remember seeing them about two years ago, I know that it can be done.
As far as listing items at low prices, and only get one or two bids, I was told that if the listing is for $0.99 for a heavy item and the Priority Mail Fee $3.85 with Tracking Number $0.55, for a Grand Total of $4.30 mailing costs and you only receive one bid and accepted PayPal and launch your auctions with AuctionWatch, the costs were: $0.90 per that item, leaving the seller a net of $0.09, for their merchandise and time. Calculated as follows: eBay Listing Fee $0.30, FVF $0.05, AW fee $0.10, PayPal fee $0.45. The seller accepted $5.29 as the Final Value (Bid $0.99 plus shipping costs $4.30.)
I had no idea that the fees were so high for low cost items. There was a website that had the listing costs at eBay with the present fee structure at that time.
From the few Power Sellers that I have received emails, they tell me that bidding at eBay pretty much stopped last Friday, some claimed no bids received since and others report a couple or very few.
The listings at eBay have dropped to a more realist number 9,050,000, must be because there are no bidding going on and the beginning of the ending of the "Penny Sale" reduced fees (March 3-5, 2002, I believe). I was also told that the projections are that it may drop to 7,000,000 range during the month of December based on historic long term trends and the lack of bidders, before eBay has a free listing day.
I should probable have named this thread: "BUYER'S PARADISE OR SELLER'S HELL?"
[ edited by USMarines on Dec 10, 2002 10:32 PM ]
If the listings number dips too much you can bet the ranch that ebay will have another quasi-FLD to get the number back up. It's like turning on a faucet for them.
posted on December 11, 2002 04:31:09 AM new
Thanks for all the input and opinions!
Every December the number of listing deeps below the lowest for the rest of the year, it picks up again after the FLD, but does not stay there very long, only long enough for the free listings to expire.
One of my friends email me his analysis tables. It makes sense to me. First look the Year 2001, you will notice the Red Line which indicates the sustained lows for the year.
<IMG SRC="http://www.geocities.com/donnycalvin/Year2001.jpg">
<BR>
The second table Year 2002, also has the same Red Line and the black line are the projections of what should happen later in this month, before the FLD is invocated.
<BR>
However, a FLD does not create buyers, therefore the sellers are going to suffer lower prices because of excess supply of items and realize lower prices, far beyond the $0.30, $0.55 or $1.10 they save on listing fees.
posted on December 11, 2002 05:39:02 AM new
Been selling on ebay for 5+ years. You may not believe this but the first time that TOTAL ebay listings reached the 100,000 mark (just before Christmas), I thought that would be the high water mark. That now would represent 1% of the current total. Just amazing.
posted on December 11, 2002 07:57:34 AM new
Yup, I actually took 18 months off waiting for the listing totals to come back down to "normal" when they topped 380,000 items and my sell through dropped from 100% to 90%.
Boy, I wish I hadn't done that
By time I went back to selling there were over 4,000,000 items and sell through was only 65%. What I wouldn't give for even that now!
[ edited by lindajean on Dec 11, 2002 07:59 AM ]
posted on December 11, 2002 10:02:37 AM new
Ebay has learned a new whole bag of tricks to constantly bolster the listing numbers without giving away totally free listings as in Christmases past. The reduced listing price for auction under a buck with no reserves, the penny gallery, the storefront listing sale, etc. and they are probably working on new ones.
What can the peak actually be? 11 million, 12 million? 15 million? If Half.com gets truly integrated into ebay the total may be 30 million or even 50 million.
Ebay may still be in it's early infancy.
posted on December 12, 2002 03:58:31 AM new"eBay has learned a new whole bag of tricks to constantly bolster the listing numbers without giving away totally free listings as in Christmases past. The reduced listing price for auction under a buck with no reserves, the penny gallery, the storefront listing sale, etc., and they are probably working on new ones."
No doubt, that is the case, these types of Promotions will work for eBay, for a while, as long sellers remain gullible. If sellers believe they are saving on listing fee (LF), which they are actually are. Sellers will find to their detriment, that they are also saving on Final Value Fees (FVF), since their merchandise does fetch a lower price.
The Penny Sales, under a buck promotions with no reserves are a bad deals for sellers, since over half or 60% of the auctions close with only one or two bid.
Only 40% receive more than two bids. The Sale-Thru-Rate for substantial items is still fluctuating around 40% to 50% on the average. Those figures seem to hold up regardless of the opening bid amount. There are gimmicky or what I would call junk items on which the Sales-Thru-Rate is probable 5% to 10% if the seller is lucky.
Talking about Sell-Thru-Rates, I obtained these figures from a friend of mine for the category Sunglasses, the latest figures he was willing to share with me were for 11/27/02, as follows:
Total items listed 1401
Sold 650
Sell-Thru-Rate 44.8%
Of the 650 items sold, with 1 bid 319 or 49.1%
Of the 650 items sold, with 2 bids 62 or 9.5%
Of the 650 items sold with more than 2 bids 41.4%
Let us not forget that Promotions of Discounted Listing fees for sellers, does not create or produce new buyers, because of the extremely low prices, it may increase the propensity of a buyer to bid, however, it does not create buyers. The whole principle of auctions is that if you offer an item at a low price, the potential audience of buyers, will bid because they don't want that bargain to get away from them. However, as the number of "bargains prices" increase there is less urgency for that buyer to bid, he can always wait for the next bargain.
Thanks for sharing all your opinions.
[ edited by USMarines on Dec 12, 2002 04:05 AM ]
