posted on December 20, 2002 07:25:44 AM
Lower wages. Don't see this trend changing. Would very much be interested in reading your thoughts on this subject.
posted on December 20, 2002 07:48:03 AM
Morning twelvepole - But NAFTA only applies to Canada and Mexico, right?
American jobs are going all over the world.
posted on December 20, 2002 08:54:00 AM
Of course, there are those who think that getting rid of the minimum wage laws will allow wages to go up basd upon merit.
posted on December 20, 2002 11:04:05 AM
As long as there are huge differences between the standard of living in seperate countries there will never be a stable global economy.
The only thing that would stabize the value of labor wordwide in the short term would be a pandemic or a world war so bad it removed the surplus labor pool and leveled the playing fiels for everyone.
Otherwise I see no significant uniformity until there is a space based ecomony and ALL the markets at the bottom of the gravity well are inferior to the markets and production in a space based economy with cheap energy and materials.
posted on December 20, 2002 11:34:02 AM
The jobs will come home when people quit buying items made in china, mexico, and other sweatshop countries. Take wal-mart for example. Nothing but imports, and what happened to the buy American campaign?
We have a small family owned dept. store in our town, and since 9/11 they tell me their sales are way up. They are stocking all the USA made goods they can get and advertise them. From USA made flags, to plastic silverware, to electronics. I wanted to buy a roaster for a friend and all wal-mart, k-mart, and target had was rival brand. The Dept. store had nesco which is USA made for the same price!
posted on December 20, 2002 11:46:47 AM
blairwitch,Exactly! The only way to get "their" attention,Is to not buy or use "their" services.I think these Co.s are un-American,and should be treated as such.
Lower the wages,That has to be done in this economy,But"Keep the jobs here!
posted on December 20, 2002 05:04:07 PM
The department store in our town stocks USA made shoes, shirts, pants, etc. A few weeks ago I was looking for a flashlight and the only USA made brand I could find was found at the department store. There are many American companies out there, but the mass merchants cant turn away that cheap sweatshop labor in China. The lady at the store told me USA made toys are the hardest products to find, but they have a nice selection. If the jobs keep leaving maybe people will wise up, and buy American!
posted on December 20, 2002 09:54:10 PM
As a systems analyst for a large insurance company that has started moving their IT operations to India, I found this article very interesting. The rumor mills at work have been saying the same thing.
Here's one interesting point that is never mentioned. Yes, overseas programmers are cheaper. But that's not the end of the story.
The first department in our company that transferred their operations originally had 7 people (Americans working here in the US). It now has 3 Americans and 3 foreign workers here in the US and 9 foreign workers overseas. That's 15 people to cover the same work originally carried by 7.
Also, we're now sending all sorts of sensitive information around the world. Salaries, social security numbers, credit card information - guess where it's going. Overseas. I find the whole situation very scary - not just in terms of my losing my jobs but hundreds of thousands (or millions) of Americans losing their jobs. We'll all end up flipping burgers and will only be able to afford to buy at Wal-Mart (if that).
posted on December 21, 2002 09:13:30 AM
This whole "free trade" melange was supported by the intelligencia based on the premise that American workers would move into high skilled service and IT jobs as high paid manfacturing jobs disappeared.
What has happened no one expected. When the actual "skills" were transferred to the machines, all jobs became exportable.
I had a chance to see a state of the art 3d CAdCAm metal lathe work. It was remarkable to watch. The "operator" merely chucked the pieces in and out of the machine. The lathe had multiple bits that came in and re-shaped the peice of metal into whatever the software told it to.
This software that runs the machine is where the "skill" is at and its use is exponential. The software can also be written anywhere in the world and the lathe can be set up anywhere in the world that has electricity and a person to chuck the metal in and out.
With few exceptions, the High tech and service jobs that were supposed to replace the high wage manufacturing jobs have proved to be more vulnerable to export than imagined.
No one 20 years ago thought that India would have a huge surplus of PhDs than anyone knew what to do with - and no one thought that high tech work would be going to India at pennies on the dollar.
Free trade is not spreading wealth, it is spreading poverty. There already was a wealthy ruling class in India, Mexico, and China. What free trade is doing is "leveling" the poverty among countries.
What this means for the US is poverty rates that will be like nothing ever seen in this country. Poverty will not mean no job and no prospects, and/or an income level below a certain level. It will be abject poverty. It will be third world poverty right here in the US.
The middle class will be doctors, lawyers, and others with special advanced education doing jobs that can't be exported. As wages drop for US workers, income will drop for what were the top income earners among workers. Doctors and lawyers simply will not be able to charge what they are now because fewer and fewer people can afford the fees.
Free trade as currently construed merely exports our wealth and imports third world poverty.
posted on December 21, 2002 01:40:26 PM
"Free trade as currently construed merely exports our wealth and imports third world poverty. "
Is this such a bad thing? I mean, sure, if you lose your job and don't have the ability to adapt things are not going to be good.
But what about the benefits to wherever this job has gone? What about the family that is raising itself from poverty in another country and now has the ability to buy goods? Some even from the US?
Eventually the evening out process should mean that wages even out all over the world to some degree, goods price out evenly. The wealth is shared.
Of course if you're in say the position of the New York Yankees in Baseball, you're happy and don't understand why it's important that the Tampa Bay team do well or survive.
I've been noticing that history seems to be repeating itself.
At the turn of the last century it was one of the biggest periods of freedom ever in the world in that you could go from one country to another with great ease. Business and trade between countries was very open too.
Then WW1 came along and borders really started to go up and the world started it's path to becoming a much smaller and restrictive place.
Could this mean that we are heading towards another big war? Since September 11th, it just isn't fun to travel anymore.
Is this war to be followed by a large depression? War takes a big bite out of any economy and with todays weapons of Mass Destruction there could be a need for whole cities to be rebuilt, if they could be rebuilt.
posted on December 21, 2002 02:41:28 PM
This great levening effect of free trade can only bring US wages down and it also exports high wage jobs. It is a recipe for economic trouble.
The next shoe to drop will be asset depreciation. It must happen as wages are continually going down. Those wages were supporting asset prices.
That $100,000 home that the factory worker once could purchase will have to come down in price to $75 or $50 thousand or it will sit on the market with no buyers.
There is absolutely NOTHING magical about "free trade" that can stop these events from happening.
Economic problems presage wars, not the other way around.
posted on December 21, 2002 03:06:50 PM
Well Reamond, using your rationale there are an awful lot of people in other countries suffering economically, some may even say, at the expense of the US and it's citizens?
Maybe they simply want one of those lower value homes that while your example would be unhappy with they would consider extreme luxury?
posted on December 21, 2002 05:11:52 PM
If the world did live at US consumption levels it will be a disaster. China is just begining to feel the effects of the automoblie as more and more are sold there.
No one has figured out yet how to handle all the pollution from Chinese driving cars and using electricity.
Measuring success values or the "wants" of the third world by US standards is unwise and pretentious.
While we seem to be spreading the American consumer dream to the third world, it is in fact a situation wherein if everyone does it it is an ecological disaster, but if a few do it it is OK. But, there simply is not and never can be enough wealth to allow everyone to live at our standards.
posted on December 21, 2002 06:58:58 PM
Reamond, one you seem to be contradicting yourself, and two, don't these people have every right to abuse the planet as much as we do?
And if by them doing so would cause disaster perhaps we shouldn't be living the way we do?
posted on December 21, 2002 07:09:53 PM
Reamond I enjoyed your posts, and they are dead on.
I think there is going to be a breaking point in America when people will wake up and say they are tired of working for nothing. People are growing tired already of big corporations screwing their employees(wal-mart was found guilty the other day). More and more are losing health care, the stock market is stagnant, interest rates are at an all time low, but still the economy is weakening. There just isnt no money anymore. People cant afford vacations, so the airlines are going bankrupt, companies stole employees 401k's and other benefits. If Americans stuck together the jobs would quickly come home. Its going to happen or we are in big trouble.
posted on December 22, 2002 06:17:46 AM
Actually Reamond they do, and some of "our" jobs are actually theirs if you really think about it.
Also, as long as we take their Doctors, nurses, skilled workers, etc we STEAL the ability of these countries to help themselves.
"I think there is going to be a breaking point in America when people will wake up and say they are tired of working for nothing."
I think that point has crossed in many other countries too.
I think that many people feel that they have been supporting a "US" way of life with their cheap labor.
Most people support fair wages in the US and even are willing to pay a bit more for US made goods.
Well people in other countries, especially developing countries want fair wages too, and many of their employers are US companies with US stock holders who may be holding down their wages, wages that no US citizen would stand for, never mind working conditions, so that US citizens can have cheap goods that create profits for those same US companies and their US shareholders.
It's all about perspective.
Why is OIL about half the price in the US compared to say, Europe? Certainly it's less distance to ship oil to Europe than to the US?
We all live on one planet. There has to be a certain amount of give and take and a certain amount of understanding and working together if we are all to survive.
posted on December 22, 2002 11:07:29 AM
I think that what we are seeing is the world wide economic field being leveled for the first time in recorded history.
All advanced industrialized nations of the world are also having the economic feet kicked out from underneath them and are having the same things happen to them that is going on with us.
Think of each and every country in the world with a certain economic rating based upon the strength of their economy - including wages. Then, like basketball scores, add them altogether and then get the average. Do that with the scores for each nation on earth and then you'll see what is happening.
We no longer really have geo-political national boundaries, but economic trading zones. You can wave your flag all that you want to, but it is a sham. It only exists in our popular culture.
I really don't care about religious predications about the so-called ending of the world, except where believers direct national policy. So, I have long believed in one-worldism: one Law, one Language, one Monetary system. Just those three should be universal, IMO.
I would easily and gladly give up the dollar bill for a World currency that could be spent in any country on the planet.
One universal language set aside to be the World language would also be a great advantage. I don't mind having to learn Esperanto. Kids throughout the world would be taught their regional dialect and Esperanto. That way, no matter where you go, you can esily communicate with someone else.
One Law is a sweet idea, but hard to implement. After all, we here in the Western world want MORE liberties, not less! In the East, they probably want a lot more restrictive control on people's behavior than we'd ever tolerate. But certainly, they has to be an expansion of International laws to lessen the sovereignty of nations to stop abuses by governments against citizens. I suggest a very s-l-o-w approach to doing this; implementing only a simple handful of regulations per year, seeing how they work out as they reach every corner of the globe. We have time.
posted on December 24, 2002 10:06:18 AM
And then people wonder why the economy sucks, and they cant find a job. Keep buying those sweatshop chinese goods.
posted on December 24, 2002 10:24:30 AM
Those working conditions experienced by Chinese toy workers is exactly what our corporations want to get us back into. Observe how they've been repealing regulations for worker and workplace safety. It's a return to the Bad Old Days when Marxism and Communism looked like really good deals to the working masses.
posted on December 24, 2002 01:24:18 PM
They have been working on it since 1980 when Reagan tried to break all the unions. Now we have wal-mart moving into small towns running good paying jobs out, and bringing in $5.15 an hour jobs. Add to this their anti-American buying campaign. You cant find a USA made flag at any wal-mart. Here in Pennsylvania wal-mart is now the largest employer in the state which was once one of the biggest industrial states in the nation. Unless Americans put a stop to it things are going down fast!
posted on December 26, 2002 08:26:49 AM
That is a numbing stat that PA's largest employer is WalMart.
It would appear that the US is just a giant WalMart that sells goods from other countries.
It reminds me of what Walter Ruther once told Henry Ford. The two were touring a plant and Ford was pointing out all the new equipment that replaced workers.
After hearing enough of Ford bragging about replcing workers, Ruther took Ford over to a large window overlooking the employee parking lot. The lot was filed with Ford autos. Ruther asked Ford who was going to buy those cars once all the workers had been replaced ?
Over production by the third world and no demand from first world consumers is a recipe for a depression.
It is only a matter of time until all automobiles and auto parts are made in China.
posted on December 26, 2002 10:06:42 AM
I disagree. I know that it's the easy and emotional thing to be, protectionist, but look at Japan and other countries that try and practice this.
You end up with overpriced goods that many times are inferior.
Your analogy about looking out the window may be right, but there may be people in other countries who now can afford a Ford.
Is this simply a matter of some very rich and spoiled people not willing to share "THE WORLD's WEALTH" ?
China and other countries labor will evolve. Wages will rise especially as the desire for some of the goods they are creating become a reality.
A friend once told me that it was better to decide about things rather than to wait for them to happen.
There are many countries and areas that are going to grow and boom in the next decade.
The US is not likely to be one of them. Why not simply invest or try and go where the money is?
Ever notice communities that dry up because old technology supported it? People wring their hands and wail instead of evolve and move.
I know it's easier said than done, but there wouldn't be a United States of America if not for some folks who did just that.
posted on December 26, 2002 10:26:03 AM
Reamond NAPA has already begun stocking made in china parts. When my car needed new break pads I went to napa and saw the junk. I flat out told the clerk I dident want the junk.
Jamie you make some valid points. In time the people in these countries are going to want higher wages. Its already happening to mexico and factories are pulling out there for china.
The mass retailers are really upset over the lack of sales this season. Less wages = less money to spend. I guess they cant figure it out.
Would very much be interested in reading your thoughts on this subject.
