posted on October 8, 2004 06:53:47 PM
Jobs and snow jobs: Part II
Our current unemployment rate -- 5.4 percent -- is one of the lowest in the world and one of the lowest in our own history. Why then the hysteria about jobs? Because this is an election year and Senator Kerry is desperate for some issue that will rescue his faltering campaign.
According to the Kerry campaign, President Bush has "lost" over a million jobs since taking office. This of course assumes that jobs are Presidents' to win or lose.
Both in political rhetoric and media hype, Presidents are credited or blamed for all sorts of economic developments that they have had little or nothing to do with. Back in the 1980s, it was "the Reagan deficit" and in the 1990s it was "the Clinton surplus."
In both these administrations, as in all other administrations in the history of the United States, all spending bills originated in the House of Representatives. Both Reagan and Clinton faced a House of Representatives controlled by the opposite party.
Neither President could create a deficit or a surplus.
Even further back, President Herbert Hoover was blamed for the Great Depression of the 1930s and President Franklin D. Roosevelt was credited with getting us out of the Depression. Virtually no recognized economist believes that today.
Some of Hoover's policies may have made matters worse and FDR carried those policies even further, making things much worse. But there is little that is positive that any President can do, except recognize how little he can do -- and therefore not get in the way of the market's natural tendency to rebound.
President George W. Bush came into office inheriting an economic downturn that began at the end of the Clinton administration. Then the September 11th attacks and the reactions to them disrupted the economy.
Have we forgotten about the drastic reduction in travel after 9/11, which plunged the airline industry into huge losses and dealt a blow to hotels and vacation resorts across the country? Jobs decline when the economy declines.
President Bush's tax cuts have been blamed for our economic woes by those who believe in high taxes. But the economy's decline began before taxes were cut and we now have a strong recovery without the tax rates being raised.
Few things have been more grossly distorted than tax cuts. Liberals in politics and the media seem to think that what matters is what happens to the money. In reality, what matters is how the cut in tax rates affects people's behavior.
Time and again, lower tax rates have led to higher tax revenues. That is because lower tax rates make it profitable to take money out of tax shelters like municipal bonds and put it into something that is more productive, now that taxes are no longer taking such a big bite.
When more money is invested in more productive economic activities, more output results -- and more jobs are created while generating that increased output. That is the whole point.
People who hate to see tax cuts picture an entirely different scenario. Such people see "tax cuts for the rich" being done because of some theory that the money received by the rich will eventually "trickle down" to the poor.
No economist in the entire history of economics has ever had any such "trickle-down" theory. It is a complete straw man.
If you want to argue about the effects of any given cut in tax rates, that is fine. But those who dream up a "trickle-down theory" obviously do not want to confront the real arguments for tax cuts or the actual effects of these cuts.
Evading issues instead of debating them has become the hallmark of an election campaign that has degenerated into a raucous dispute about what two young lieutenants did or didn't do more than 30 years ago.
Senator Kerry's making his Vietnam war record the central theme of his campaign was itself an evasion of the record of his decades in politics since then. Senator Zell Miller's devastating criticism of that record has likewise been evaded by talking about Senator Miller's tone or emotions, instead of the substance.
Jobs hysteria is only the latest in a series of evasions and distractions.
"War is an ugly thing, but not the ugliest of things. The person who has nothing for which he is willing
to fight, nothing which is more important than his own personal safety, is a miserable creature and has no chance of being free unless made and kept so by the exertions of better men than himself."
--John Stuart Mill
posted on October 8, 2004 07:01:41 PM
DNC Ad Uses Misleading Information on Job Losses, Report States
By Randy Hall
CNSNews.com Editor
August 12, 2004
(CNSNews.com) - An ad from the Democratic National Committee indicates that 2.7 million manufacturing jobs have been lost since George W. Bush became president. That's true, but the statement ignores the fact that manufacturing jobs started their decline three years before Bush took office, according to a report at factcheck.org.
In the ad, which was released on Aug. 6, the announcer says "millions of good jobs lost to plant closures and outsourcing" as the video shows the words "2.7 million manufacturing jobs lost."
The Bureau of Labor Statistics reports that payroll jobs in the manufacturing sector went from nearly 17.1 million at the time Bush took office to just over 14.4 million in June, a decline of nearly 2.7 million.
However, U.S. manufacturing employment declined by 544,000 between the peak reached in March of 1998 and when President Bill Clinton left office, even as the economy added nearly 7.8 million jobs in all categories during the end of an economic boom that ended a few weeks after Bush was sworn in.
In fact, 238,000 of those manufacturing jobs were lost during Clinton's last six months in office, showing that the decline was well established even before Bush spent a day in the Oval Office.
Furthermore, by choosing to highlight only manufacturing jobs, the DNC ad ignores offsetting gains in other sectors that have been growing.
A look at the bigger picture -- total payroll jobs -- shows a much less severe decline of just over 1.1 million jobs since Bush took office, the report indicates. The decline in manufacturing payrolls has been mostly offset by gains in such industries as health care, construction and government (such as teachers and firemen).
It now seems unlikely that even total employment will return to the level of January 2001 by the time Bush's full four-year term ends. As Democrats like to point out, that would indeed make him the first president since Herbert Hoover to experience a net job loss over a full term.
However, it is also true that as of June, the economy had regained nearly 1.5 million jobs since the worst point in the job slump in August 2003. Even manufacturing jobs are growing: 91,000 have been added since January.
The ad says Bush "protects tax breaks favoring corporations that move their headquarters overseas." It's true that administration tax-policy experts testified against a Democratic proposal aimed at stopping U.S. companies from moving their headquarters overseas, but that proposal was actually aimed at stopping corporate tax avoidance, not job loss.
The administration favored a different approach, arguing that the Democratic approach would be "unlikely to work and likely to have harmful effects the U.S. economy," according to House testimony in June 2002 by Pamela Olson, who was then the Treasury Department's acting chief of tax policy.
Olson argued that the Democratic approach would discourage businesses already headquartered overseas from doing business in the U.S., hurting rather then helping American employment.
"War is an ugly thing, but not the ugliest of things. The person who has nothing for which he is willing
to fight, nothing which is more important than his own personal safety, is a miserable creature and has no chance of being free unless made and kept so by the exertions of better men than himself."
--John Stuart Mill
posted on October 8, 2004 07:48:51 PMOur current unemployment rate -- 5.4 percent
5.4% only measures the percent collecting unemployment benefits. It does not count the hundreds of thousands whose benefits have run and do not have a job.
posted on October 8, 2004 07:58:33 PMOur current unemployment rate -- 5.4 percent -- is one of the lowest in the world and one of the lowest in our own history.
I mentioned that, giving the unemployment rates for Canada and Germany.....and then someone gets all blown out of shape....like I'm not supposed to compare how well our country is doing compared to others. Truth hurts I guess. It's a fact that many countries economies had turned down...and ours has improved so much that we are in better shape than they are.
Two great articles, bear, thanks.
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"I will never submit America's national security to an international test. The use of troops to defend America must never be subject to a veto by countries like France. The President's job is not to take an international poll -- the President's job is to defend America." --President George W. Bush
~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ Re-elect President Bush
posted on October 8, 2004 08:18:06 PM
The reason the Clinton administation had all that surplus money was because he got rid of our Military. When Bush took office we didn't HAVE any military to fight anything.Yet Kerry is going to double what we now have,while complaining about what Bush spent. Isn't doubling it going to cost anything? But at least Kerry is going to give us more tax cuts,except for those earning over $200,000 which they will receive special incentives....BULL.
posted on October 8, 2004 08:37:46 PMI mentioned that, giving the unemployment rates for Canada and Germany.....and then someone gets all blown out of shape....like I'm not supposed to compare how well our country is doing compared to others.
Linda_k, I didn't get blown out of shape, I stated facts in my usual calm way ...... so quit your lying. I don't see your need to spout wrong information here when the more intelligent can find the true facts quite easily. Once again, you are playing to your own little uninformed band who buy anything you say without looking further.
From today:
Oct. 8 (Bloomberg) -- The Canadian dollar rose, reaching 80 U.S. cents for the first time in more than a decade, after a government report showed employers hired twice as many workers as expected and job growth in the U.S. slowed.
Exceeding the U.S.
In the second quarter, Canadian gross domestic product advanced 4.3 percent, compared with 3.3 percent in the U.S. It was the first time since the three months ended March 2003 that Canadian growth exceeded that of the U.S. Exports to the U.S. comprise about a third of Canada's GDP.
China's increased demand for Canadian commodities such as copper and lumber will offset the effect of slower U.S. growth and is ``important for Canadian dollar strength,'' wrote Peter Frank, a Chicago-based currency strategist at ABN Amro Holding NV, the biggest Dutch bank by assets, in an e-mail.
September job growth in Canada was more than twice the 20,300 median forecast of 22 economists surveyed by Bloomberg. The jobless rate fell to 7.1 percent, the lowest since July 2001.
The U.S. added 96,000 payrolls last month, while economists surveyed predicted 148,000, based on the median of 74 estimates.
``There's an overall perception of health in the Canadian economy, versus a relatively negative signal for the U.S. economy,'' said Levesque of TD Securities.
posted on October 8, 2004 08:45:02 PM
::The reason the Clinton administation had all that surplus money was because he got rid of our Military. When Bush took office we didn't HAVE any military to fight anything.::
So who were all those guys in tanks blowing up targets and repelling from helicopters along the 5 whenever I drove thru Pendleton on my way to Tijuana?
~~~ • ~~~ • ~~~ • ~~~ • ~~~
If it's really "common" sense, why do so few people actually have it?
posted on October 8, 2004 08:55:26 PM
MAH - Don't expect the lefties to think cutting the military is a bad thing....some would even like to see it totally eliminated I sometimes think.
Yet Kerry is going to double what we now have,while complaining about what Bush spent. Isn't doubling it going to cost anything.
So far each time I've mention some new program kerry's said he's going to give every group who supports him, I mention the cost...how's he going to pay for this? So far EVERYTHING he's promised is going to be paid for by taxing the 'rich'. Dems and Bush's estimate of what that would bring in isn't anywhere NEAR enough to pay for almost $2 trillion dollars worth of spending.
He'll either be raising ALL our taxes or our deficit will go much higher. But the dems here never seem to want to discuss how it's all going to be paid for. And I understand....because they can't explain where it's all going to come from.
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"I will never submit America's national security to an international test. The use of troops to defend America must never be subject to a veto by countries like France. The President's job is not to take an international poll -- the President's job is to defend America." --President George W. Bush
~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~
Re-elect President Bush
[ edited by Linda_K on Oct 8, 2004 09:03 PM ]
posted on October 8, 2004 09:03:47 PMOur current unemployment rate -- 5.4 percent -- is one of the lowest in the world and one of the lowest in our own history.
There is no way to compare our rate with other industrial countries. They don't use the same statistical methods we do to comput the stats.
And there is no way to say that out current level of unemployment is our lowest in history since we have not used the same computational methods throughout our history.
bottom line-- Bush has screwed up the economy as bad as he has screwed up everything else.
posted on October 8, 2004 09:12:15 PM
reamond - ONE of the lowest. And the Dept. of Labor has been keeping records since before I was born. That's far enough back to make a comparison.
Canada's previous two months had *stagnant* growth....then one month goes from 7.2 down to 7.1. WOW!! So all those jobs took THREE months to come about.
And we've always used other countries unemployment rates to compare ours too. Who are you kidding. Even though they might have slight variations....they've ALWAYS been used to compare when how other countries are doing in comparison to ours with discussing world economics.
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
"I will never submit America's national security to an international test. The use of troops to defend America must never be subject to a veto by countries like France. The President's job is not to take an international poll -- the President's job is to defend America." --President George W. Bush
~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ Re-elect President Bush
posted on October 8, 2004 09:24:06 PMreamond - ONE of the lowest.
You and Bush must have mystic powers to be able to compare statistical data that was put together with different methodology and about different systems. Are you aware that some industrial countries allow their workers to be on unemployment benefits much longer ? And some allow them to draw benefits until they find a job ? This would automatically make their rates higher than ours.
And the Dept. of Labor has been keeping records since before I was born. That's far enough back to make a comparison.
How far back it goes is irrelevant to the issue.
How do you compare the present rate to the periods under Carter and Reagan when unemployment rates were extended ?
Under the present stats, hundreds of thousands of unemployed are not counted because their benefits have run out.
How about when the unemployment rate counted those unemployed regardless if their benefits had run out ?
Is it that hard to understand ?
The 5.4% IS ONLY A SNAPSHOT OF THE PERCENTAGE OF WORKERS CURRENTLY COLLECTING UNEMPLOYMENT BENEFITS.
It does not tell us how many are actually out of work. But you can get a pretty good idea by the thousands that lose their unemployment benefits each month and by the number of jobs lost by Bush's misguided economic policy.
posted on October 8, 2004 09:27:43 PM
As usual poor lonely linda has only her stats and the internet googling to keep her warm.
That's why she can defend bush's record at losing jobs.
Juggle the numbers and anything 's possible. But I know REAL human beings, unlike linda, and I know too many who have lost their jobs.
I see the real world with the real unjuggled comparisons and numbers...and the numbers are up. More people than I can remember at one time don't have jobs and can't find new ones.
Oh, excuse me, did I interrupt with real life again?
posted on October 8, 2004 09:36:51 PM
Linda_K, get your facts straight........ you are looking silly again.
I happen to be interested in both countries because I do business out of both and can live in either one. What is your sudden excessive obsession with Canada the past few months? Is it just jealousy or are you intending to move up there?
Some of us are still young enough to be working...... and just because you're old and retired and comfy, don't assume the bad economy will never affect your future.
posted on October 8, 2004 09:42:07 PM
It's a form of distraction or deflection. It is easier to deflect an argument to another country or a past president then to try to defend the here and now.
____________________
"Bad temper is its own scourge. Few things are more bitter than to feel bitter. A man's venom poisons himself more than his victim." --Charles Buxton
posted on October 8, 2004 09:50:36 PM
I don't agree it's a deflection, bunni. The unemployment rates along with the DGPs of each country are how economists make comparisons between how countries are doing in the world economy, what their growth is compared to one another.
You kerry supporters deny anything good that happens in this country...again it's the doom and gloom club. We WERE *over* 6.0 unemployed...now we're at 5.4. That IS an improvement whether the left wants to acknowledge it or not.
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
"I will never submit America's national security to an international test. The use of troops to defend America must never be subject to a veto by countries like France. The President's job is not to take an international poll -- the President's job is to defend America." --President George W. Bush
~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ Re-elect President Bush
posted on October 8, 2004 10:12:13 PM
That's strange that you always compare the US to an insignificant country like Canada, Linda_k. I think a better comparison would be China as North America is helping it become an economic wonder. Or perhaps India? Or Japan? Or does it require me moving there first. Everyone knows I'm the main reason you try to bash.... uhhh..... compare Canada. lol
posted on October 9, 2004 05:06:13 AM
What is there to defend? Unemployment is down to 5.4%... period it needs no defending.
That statistical data has been used for all presidencies... so if kerry were in the white house and it was this way, someone would be here posting the same things linda did, only saying kerry has our unemployment down... most probably kiara she is well known for her google expertise...
Data doesn't lie or tell the truth, it is just data and how you use it makes the difference....
sure people are off the unemployment rolls... you can neither prove nor disprove they are not working...
The economy is improving, wages are were they should be for the economy and not artificially inflated as was done in the last administration, President Bush is doing more for this country both here at home and abroad...
Moving over to kerry now would be a disaster, those whose money is being used for investment capital will stop, you will see the stock market take a HUGE nose dive and more jobs will be lost.
kerry claims he is going to increase the military, that would be a first for a democratic president that wasn't FDR
kerry is the wrong choice at the wrong time...
AIN'T LIFE GRAND...
Re-Elect President Bush... the only true choice.
[ edited by Twelvepole on Oct 9, 2004 06:37 AM ]
posted on October 9, 2004 06:01:22 AM
Linda, When you try to illustrate progress under the leadership of George W. Bush, it's insane that you point to the economy and the war in Iraq as something "good". Just sit in your uninformed corner and be quiet.
posted on October 9, 2004 06:54:29 AM
Unbelievable, only a neocon can can say, and be absolutely serious when they say it......
"What is there to defend? Unemployment is down to 5.4%... period it needs no defending. "
What! Their twisted logic says,
"let's ignore that it was bush who lost all those jobs but ain't he a great guy because not quite so many are lost anymore"
Then lindatwelve says,"you can neither prove nor disprove they are not working"
YES, you ignorant slut, if you had any friends or knew any humans you'd KNOW THEY ARE NOT working....
MY GAWD! THEN she says the most stupid thing of all ...get this!
"The economy is improving (WHO'S YOU DOPE WHO"S?), wages are were they should be for the economy (says YOU? we should all work for minimum wage?)) and not artificially inflated as was done in the last administration(NO stupid, people could LIVE on those wages), President Bush is doing more for this country both here at home and abroad... (WHAT WHAT WHAT)?????
"Moving over to kerry now would be a disaster, those whose money is being used for investment capital will stop, you will see the stock market take a HUGE nose dive and more jobs will be lost. "
What crap!
posted on October 9, 2004 09:07:16 AM
That's true twelve, and they DID use those same reports to tell us how well clinton was doing.
And the 5.4 is just about where we were during clinton's first term in office. That's what they don't want to accept.
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
"I will never submit America's national security to an international test. The use of troops to defend America must never be subject to a veto by countries like France. The President's job is not to take an international poll -- the President's job is to defend America." --President George W. Bush
~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ Re-elect President Bush
posted on October 9, 2004 09:17:21 AM
For those that think the economy is doing so well, think again. One can only keep printing money so fast that the day will come when the piper wants to be paid. The debt load is staggering and getting worse daily so who's going to be paying for this down the road.
Was watching some shows awhile ago where they were interviewing some economists who stated that at the rate of meaningful jobs in the US against the massive outsourcing, the US will become on par with 3rd world countries if it continues. It will be interesting to see where this country will be in 20 to 30 years from now as the middle class is being eroded at such a rapid pace.
It makes all that Made in China crap even more expensive. I'm just so thrilled we are propping up Communist governments who will stick it to us in the end. They are becoming an even larger economic and military power than they are now [super power] and we should all be concerned because we're putting them there. In my view this is stupidity at its best.
Here's an interesting read and you can draw your own conclusions. We should all be concerned when our currency starts to fall. Investors can get nervous and take their money somewhere else.
posted on October 9, 2004 09:22:53 AM
That's been crystal clear since she first started posting here, twelve. She's FILLED with anger and hatred...and is still confused about us.
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kiara said: That's strange that you always compare the US to an insignificant country like Canada, Linda_k.
That's HER problem, not mine.
I think a better comparison would be China as North America is helping it become an economic wonder. Or perhaps India? Or Japan?
No one is holding her back from making whatever comparisons she wishes too.
Or does it require me moving there first.
See what I mean? She ALWAYS thinks EVERYTHING is about HER. Must be a touch of narcissism she's suffering from. ANYTHING that's EVER mentioned about Canada....she takes as personal. She didn't take my mention of Germany and their high unemployment rate personally.
Everyone knows I'm the main reason you try to bash....uhhh.....compare Canada. lol. Looks like paranoia might be setting in too.
She really needs to get over her thinking that everytime Canada is mentioned it's ALL about HER.
posted on October 9, 2004 09:32:07 AMClinton actually created millions of jobs.
No he didn't. The tech boom is what created all those jobs. Then the bubble burst...was he also responsible for that? While you give him credit for one end of the job issue...you aren't will to also admit it crashed under his watch. AND those jobs weren't created during his FIRST term...but rather in his second one. We'll just have to wait and see if history repeats itself during President Bush's second term.
Bush is the first president since Hoover to lose jobs. President Bush didn't lose those jobs. NOTHING he did caused the 1 million job loss immediately following 9-11. It was the action of the terrorists who cause those jobs to be lost. ALONG with the recession that President Bush had to deal with right as he came into office. That started the previous September BEFORE he took office.
The economy is in the crapper because of Bush.
It's because of how President Bush has handled things that our economy has been improving. Even Greenspan says it's fundamentally strong.
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
"I will never submit America's national security to an international test. The use of troops to defend America must never be subject to a veto by countries like France. The President's job is not to take an international poll -- the President's job is to defend America." --President George W. Bush
~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ Re-elect President Bush
posted on October 9, 2004 09:39:54 AM
trai - For those that think the economy is doing so well, think again.
Who said 'doing so well'? I continue to point out it's improving and that THAT is good.
One can only keep printing money so fast that the day will come when the piper wants to be paid. The debt load is staggering and getting worse daily so who's going to be paying for this down the road.
This is what the kerry supports keep saying. But trai, how will this improve under a kerry administration when he's calling for almost $2 trillion more in spending? And they both say they're reduce the deficit within the next 4-5 years. I'd LOVE to hear ANY kerry support explain that one because I don't see how the lefties think that is going to change under a kerry administration. Notice everything he mentions he's going to give MORE money to than this administration has.
Also on your mention of money being withdrawn from our country....that happened on a large scale immediately following our bombing of Afghanistan.
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
"I will never submit America's national security to an international test. The use of troops to defend America must never be subject to a veto by countries like France. The President's job is not to take an international poll -- the President's job is to defend America." --President George W. Bush
~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ Re-elect President Bush
posted on October 9, 2004 09:50:09 AMShe didn't take my mention of Germany and their high unemployment rate personally.
DUH........... I don't live back and forth between Canada, the US and Germany. BTW, what is your gripe with Germany lately?
If you are going to defend your country's economy and compare it to other countries at least have the good sense to find a country on par....... like China perhaps. Otherwise you look really stupid and uninformed.
BTW, the truth got you so cranked your smilie thermometer is going into overload. Guess I hit that nerve again.........
posted on October 9, 2004 09:51:58 AM
trai - I'm just so thrilled we are propping up Communist governments who will stick it to us in the end.
This reminds me of how I see the same thing happening when the left won't allow drilling in our own country. IF our companies and by taxes our government, were getting all the jobs and oil from the US...we wouldn't be supporting the ME oil countries...most who hate us, many who support terrorism. So...it's the same to me as what you mention....we're buying our oil from them...which props up their economy.
And...if more US citizens were willing to pay more for US goods, rather than saving money buying items from, say China, then this wouldn't be a problem anyway. But people have been and still are choosing to buy the cheaper items....and as a nation the government isn't going to get into that and pass some law that they can't buy goods from countries that can produce them more cheaply than we do.
Also, from articles I've read...several...the job loss has very little to do with outsourcing. {I believe from the Dept. of Labor.] One of the largest markets to suffer the most loss of jobs was the tech industries and manufacturing. But now manufacturing has reversed it's downward spiral and thousands of jobs have come back.
And many of the jobs that were lost in manufacturing were lost in clintons last couple of years in office. He had nothing to do with it...getting items more cheaply did....just as that trend has continue under the Bush administration. And kerry's not going to stop it....he might even make it worse by what he's saying he'll do.
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
"I will never submit America's national security to an international test. The use of troops to defend America must never be subject to a veto by countries like France. The President's job is not to take an international poll -- the President's job is to defend America." --President George W. Bush
~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ Re-elect President Bush
