fenix03
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posted on April 25, 2005 09:31:31 PM
I was thinking about the earlier thread here regarding the lack of rhyme or reason in the stock market after watching a market report this weekend.
It was one of those round robin things where one person recommends a stock and the other three tell you why the first person is completely out of their head. One woman reccomended ebay as a buy because of it's lower price right now but long term projections. One scoffed, one floundered but it was the fourth that was crazy as he stated that ebay no longer owned the marklet and now that Yahoo and Amazon are in the auction game there is too much competition.
How in the word are we supposed to take these experts seriously when they so blatantly and publicly demonstrate how absolutely clueless they are about the things they choose to talk about.
I'm beginning to think that the reason Apple fell after showing such great numbers is that analysts did not understand the financials.
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If it's really "common" sense, why do so few people actually have it?
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profe51
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posted on April 25, 2005 10:04:04 PM
fenix, you know as well as I do that some "expert" or other has had Apple going broke since 1984...nothing new...
Better odds are to be had at my local indian casino than in the market these days...and the machines make a whole lot more sense 
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Dick Cheney: "I have not suggested there's a connection between Iraq and 9/11..."
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bigpeepa
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posted on April 26, 2005 04:33:54 AM
Hi
Gold, 150 years ago 1 ounce bought a good suit. Today 1 ounce still buys a good suit. To buy a really good suit you need about 10 ounces. LOL
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desquirrel
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posted on April 27, 2005 07:20:48 AM
Just who are these "people" recommending this stock or that.
Apple showed a little flash because of the iPod. Now that the iPod is yesterday's news and has lots of better competitors, Apple goes back to "normal". If Microsoft hadn't of pumped a few hundred mil into Apple, ostensibly to prevent a monopoly lawsuit when they were desparate, they'd be gone.
eBay?? Nobody in their right mind says buy eBay. That stock is selling for many times what the company is worth.
You simply ask an investment firm how well they did historically against the S & P. Mine is double digits better.
No rocket science, no mysteries.
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fenix03
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posted on April 27, 2005 08:37:34 AM
desquirrel - thank you for showing us that you really no clue what you are talking about.
Once someone shows so clearly that they have no knowledge of actual facts it's so much easier judge the value of their opinions.
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If it's really "common" sense, why do so few people actually have it?
[ edited by fenix03 on Apr 27, 2005 08:38 AM ]
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Helenjw
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posted on April 27, 2005 08:53:11 AM
It's good to know that I'm not alone in that estimation of duhsquirrel.
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desquirrel
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posted on April 27, 2005 09:12:12 AM
Why Helen, I'd gladly take an IQ test against you any day.
Given his befuddlement, it goes without saying I'll bet my stock returns are better than fenix's.
You have to be a complete moron to say there is a "lack of rhyme or reason" in the stock market.
You both could easily fit that bill.
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Helenjw
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posted on April 27, 2005 09:56:10 AM
Squirrelmeat says, "Right now housing is skyrocketing because interest rates are so low, people are buying houses they can't afford."
But CNN reports that housing starts suffered their largest monthly drop since January 1991!
Just one example of squirrel confusion...all bluster and no substance.With an intellect that he is constantly touting as superior it's a wonder that he can be so very confused.
[ edited by Helenjw on Apr 27, 2005 10:49 AM ]
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stonecold613
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posted on April 27, 2005 10:34:27 AM
Squirrelmeat says, "Right now housing is skyrocketing because interest rates are so low, people are buying houses they can't afford."
Except Helen, desquirrel is right. The housing market dropped the most since 1991 because the housing market boomed way too fast for it's own good and now the market is catching up to itself. 7 Years ago, my house was worth 90K. Now it has a market value of 300K. It isn't rocket science to see what is going to happen in the near future now that interest rates are raising.
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Alive in 2005
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Helenjw
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posted on April 27, 2005 10:46:58 AM
Stonecold, housing starts is an indicator of construction activity and the number of residential building permits that have been issued for constructing new homes.
Housing starts are NOT skyrocketing!
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Helenjw
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posted on April 27, 2005 11:00:21 AM
Housing starts....
"Housing starts will increase as interest rates decline, as consumer confidence rises, as unemployment rates fall, and as real disposable personal income rises. Because residential building permits are so sensitive to interest rates and other cyclical economic factors, housing starts are a volatile data series and are useful as an indicator of change in the business cycle. The typical decline in interest rates during a recession reduces the cost of borrowing for households and businesses, and thus construction activity is usually an important early contributor to economic recoveries following recessions. Likewise if economic growth during the peak of the business cycle pushes up inflation, then the resulting rise in nominal interest rates will tend to reduce construction activity. Consequently a decline in construction activity may be one of the first indicators of a recession. For these reasons the Conference Board includes housing starts as an element of the Index of Leading Economic Indicators."
[ edited by Helenjw on Apr 27, 2005 11:00 AM ]
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stonecold613
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posted on April 27, 2005 11:13:46 AM
I just re-read the post and realized I didn't quite read it correctly. However most of what the squirrel is stating is correct. The statement should have read "for the past few year until just recently". The rest of the statement is 100% true. Two things I see happening in the next 5-7 years is far less home purchases and the present new home owners will never find a deal as good as the one that they now have and will likely live in their present homes until they pass on. Second is what the squirrel was refering to is many more homes because of the outrages inflation will default because they spent way more than they could afford.
Although I must take both sides of the road on your statement. New housing start ups maybe down on a National basis, I personally didn't here that, but I can state at least here in Minnesota, March was an all time record for new home start ups.
I also must disagree with your indicator. Overall home sales are way up. It still is pretty rare for a home to go on the market here and stay there for more than a week or two. This is a much stronger indicator of the market today which actually upholds the squirrels argument.
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Alive in 2005
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Helenjw
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posted on April 27, 2005 11:23:06 AM
Stonecold, you are making a major mistake if you are becoming a squirrel apologist. Check his info out carefully before you speak in his defense.
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kraftdinner
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posted on April 27, 2005 12:12:57 PM
DeSquirrel, Fenix is a girl. 
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desquirrel
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posted on April 27, 2005 12:39:38 PM
Stonecold doesn't have to be a squirrel apologist because it's ALL happened before.
And is indeed right about "the until recently". For a year now, my broker has been telling me to elimnate debt and not buy anything because this merry go round of buying and selling houses and spending the equity is going to collapse.
In your greatest stupidity Helen, tell me what future housing starts have to do with the higher than normal CURRENT pricing of homes.
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Linda_K
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posted on April 27, 2005 12:53:30 PM
How in the word are we supposed to take these experts seriously when they so blatantly and publicly demonstrate how absolutely clueless they are about the things they choose to talk about.
It's not about being clueless, imo, the stock market has always been about speculation - putting money where we and the experts think it has the most chance of growing. Sometimes the 'experts' are right...and portifolio's and our 401k's increase...sometimes their speculation is wrong and it goes south.
Just as desquirrel said....it has always run in cycles...just like the housing market does and has. In the long run [historically] both have made great strides.
And fenix, to me, ebay is very over-rated price wise. With the growth of internet sales and the HSN/QVC type TV programs growing.....soon, at least for some new items ebay will be just one of many options for buyers.
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Four More Years....YES!!!
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Linda_K
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posted on April 27, 2005 12:59:53 PM
this merry go round of buying and selling houses and spending the equity is going to collapse.
From what I've read the fact that many have been speculating on real estate, because it has seen record growth in the past four years, is adding to the problem. Some of these 'second' home purchasers have bought with flexible mortages [rather than fixed interest] and with interest rates beginning to go up....again after record lows, those who bought-to-gain are going to be in deep trouble if the trend continues as their 'debt' will grow.
But we've had records set for four years now in the housing market....it's time it cooled off some. It's the normal re-adjustment that always happens.
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Four More Years....YES!!!
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Helenjw
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posted on April 27, 2005 01:03:04 PM
Dummy. Where did I mention FUTURE housing starts or the higher than normal CURRENT pricing of homes????
Stonecold mentioned the higher than normal CURRENT pricing of homes in a failed effort to defend your erroneous information.
LOL!
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fenix03
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posted on April 27, 2005 01:33:44 PM
Stone - one of the problems with touting the new home starts stats in the past is that those that wanted to show this as a positive indicator failed to note that while housing starts were climbing, so were reposessions. Lower interest rating and irresponsible lenders lead to people purchasing homes that they simply cannot afford. Although right now sales are still good the prices are going to see some dramtic dips in couple years when more and more repossessed and pre-owned homes hit the market because of people trying to get out from under the costs.
DeSquirrel - Since you are unable to make a correct statement regarding Apple if your life depended on it let me give you some facts. iPod has a 90% + market share, steady sales and quality wise is rated as the top for consumer satisfaction. Additionally with the upcoming launch Friday of Tiger which is already seeing rave reviews from every outlet there is nothing but sunny skies in their future. Afterall, it's value has increased 25% just this year and seen a 43% jump in computer sales.
I've never quite comprehended the mindset of Apple haters. Is it that in your heart you know it is the superior product and you just don't want to admit that you invested in the technology equivalent of a three legged mutt with flees?
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If it's really "common" sense, why do so few people actually have it?
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profe51
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posted on April 27, 2005 04:35:58 PM
I've never quite comprehended the mindset of Apple haters. Is it that in your heart you know it is the superior product and you just don't want to admit that you invested in the technology equivalent of a three legged mutt with flees?
That's exactly what it is fenix. Anyone who knows the true history can see that Jobs quite effectively used M$ to his own advantage. Sure, it helped keep Apple afloat during a difficult time, and it served M$'s purposes by making them look less like the monopoly they were at the time, facing court issues over the fact,but the stock was non-voting, and M$ never had a say in how Apple was to be run. 150mil dollars was hardly a controlling, or even a saving interest, even if the stock had been voting stock.In exchange, Apple promised to promote Internet Exploder, which they did, weakly, and only as long as it took them to come up with thier own infinitely superior product, Safari..I'll leave it to others to go look up how effectively Apple was able to give M$ the slip after they no longer needed it.
Apple showed a little flash with the iPod, but it's now somehow irrelevant? Tell me desquirrel, which of the far superior competitors you seem to know about has even a prayer of selling anywhere close to the five million three hundred thousand iPods that were sold in the first quarter of 2005 alone???
____________________________________________
Dick Cheney: "I have not suggested there's a connection between Iraq and 9/11..."
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desquirrel
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posted on April 27, 2005 06:01:25 PM
Stock prices are based on growth potential, get it?
Those silly Finance people. Imagine NOT buying Apple just out of spite and pushing away all that money they would have made.
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stonecold613
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posted on April 27, 2005 06:52:06 PM
Stone - one of the problems with touting the new home starts stats in the past is that those that wanted to show this as a positive indicator failed to note that while housing starts were climbing, so were reposessions
Fenix,
I compliment you for actually getting it which was one of my main points. Thank you.
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Alive in 2005
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