China is building its military forces faster than U.S. intelligence and military analysts expected, prompting fears that Beijing will attack Taiwan in the next two years, according to Pentagon officials.
China's military buildup includes an array of new high-technology weapons, such as warships, submarines, missiles and a maneuverable warhead designed to defeat U.S. missile defenses. Recent intelligence reports also show that China has stepped up military exercises involving amphibious assaults, viewed as another sign that it is preparing for an attack on Taiwan.
"There's a growing consensus that at some point in the mid-to-late '90s, there was a fundamental shift in the sophistication, breadth and re-sorting of Chinese defense planning," said Richard Lawless, a senior China-policy maker in the Pentagon. "And what we're seeing now is a manifestation of that change in the number of new systems that are being deployed, the sophistication of those systems and the interoperability of the systems."
The combination of a vibrant centralized economy, growing military and increasingly fervent nationalism has transformed China into what many defense officials view as a fascist state.
"We may be seeing in China the first true fascist society on the model of Nazi Germany, where you have this incredible resource base in a commercial economy with strong nationalism, which the military was able to reach into and ramp up incredible production," a senior defense official said.
The release of an official Chinese government report in December called the situation on the Taiwan Strait "grim" and said the country's military could "crush" Taiwan.
Earlier this year, Beijing passed an anti-secession law, a unilateral measure that upset the fragile political status quo across the Taiwan Strait. The law gives Chinese leaders a legal basis they previously did not have to conduct a military attack on Taiwan, U.S. officials said.
In the past, some defense specialists insisted a Chinese attack on Taiwan would be a "million-man swim" across the Taiwan Strait because of the country's lack of troop-carrying ships.
"We left the million-man swim behind in about 1998, 1999," the senior Pentagon official said. "And in fact, what people are saying now, whether or not that construct was ever useful, is that it's a moot point, because in just amphibious lift alone, the Chinese are doubling or even quadrupling their capability on an annual basis."
Asked about a possible Chinese attack on Taiwan, the official put it bluntly: "In the '07-'08 time frame, a capability will be there that a year ago we would have said was very, very unlikely. We now assess that as being very likely to be there.
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Richard Fisher, vice president of the International Assessment and Strategy Center, said that in 10 years, the Chinese army has shifted from a defensive force to an advanced military soon capable of operations ranging from space warfare to global non-nuclear cruise-missile strikes.
"Let's all wake up. The post-Cold War peace is over," Mr. Fisher said. "We are now in an arms race with a new superpower whose goal is to contain and overtake the United States."
Full story by link..
[ edited by maggiemuggins on Jun 28, 2005 08:34 AM ]
"Beijing's test of the JL-2 missile, first reported in the Washington Times, marked, according to an anonymous U.S. Defense Department official, "an unexpected advance in technological capability." The JL-2's range of 6,000 miles is greater than that of any other missile in China's arsenal and it is designed for the new generation of Chinese nuclear submarines, the first of which was launched in 2004. With its defense spending estimated at $78 billion per year, Beijing's strategy of creating a technologically advanced military deterrent is bearing fruit."[/i]
...........
"China's next stage of development brings the incipient conflict between Beijing and Washington into full view. Holding back Chinese expansion -- if that is even possible -- carries the high probability of derailing globalization; allowing it to occur makes the realization of Beijing's geostrategic aims far more likely."
"Look for Beijing to proceed confidently on its course and for Washington to be incapable of mounting effective resistance."
posted on June 28, 2005 01:15:50 PM new
What I don't understand is, didn't anyone see this coming? It's like our governments are always so surprised when they find out such & such. Don't we pay our leaders to keep on top of things?
posted on June 28, 2005 02:15:32 PM new
I don't know Krafty, you would think so..but I must say this one gives me the willies..call it intuition, call it a hunch, or just plain Hebe jeebee's but I've always feared China and the hair stands up on the back of my neck when I read stuff like this.. Maggie
posted on June 28, 2005 03:30:12 PM new
Maggie, it's so obvious though. China has a zillion people and a big military budget. Maybe it's a stretch to ask our governments to put 2+2 together these days. I wonder if Bush knows yet?
posted on June 29, 2005 10:43:26 AM new
A few things the media rarely mentioned in regards to China. China helped Iraq convert numerous radar installations to fiber optics, prior to the US attack. China has engaged in coordinated military maneuvers with Russia. Remember the US EP-3 surveillance plane that collided with China's F-8 fighter a number of years ago. Most likely not a surveillance mission, likely used to test China's air-space defense. Satellite surveillance could have easily accomplished the surveillance task. With more advanced equipment and greater efficiency. With virtually no risk of personnel, equipment and info falling into the wrong hands. I suppose the fact that China sells the U.S. billions of dollars worth of goods has helped to delay the problem, however, it is a double edge sword.
posted on June 29, 2005 05:47:40 PM new
I say 'amen' to the Thank the Lord for THIS President being in office now....
but if China and Russia decided to unite against us....we'd be in deep doo-doo. But many of the off-the-wall ultra-liberals might just be happy.
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hillbillymo said: A few things the media rarely mentioned in regards to China.
I agree to a point. The left leaning media rarely reports the items you mentioned....but they have been discussed *often* by the right leaning media....especially as we were preparing to go to war with Iraq.
It's kind of like the left just woke up to the build up of China's military. They've been showing and talking about it on Fox News for years now. Pictures of their parades of their military and their weapons marching down the streets....in all it's glory. Meanwhile their continued build up of force has been mentioned.
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I wonder if the lefties here have a solution as to just what THEY think should be done by our government about what 'makes their hair on the back of their necks stand up'. Should we appease China in some way so they feel less threatened by this? OR???
"Whenever the nation is under attack, from within or without, liberals side with the enemy. This is their essence." --Ann Coulter
And why the American Voters chose to RE-elect President Bush to four more years. YES!!!
posted on June 29, 2005 06:41:00 PM new
I don't know what we should do LindaK...it appears to me that no matter how much we increase our military strength.. we will still be overwhelmingly out numbered.
Unless we can increase the numbers of our allies to match their numbers..(and lately our allies seem to be fewer and fewer) the only other way would be to keep them on our good side?
IMO.. they have always been a threat, just in numbers alone, but now with their huge military and their technological sophistication..we may find ourselves between a rock and a hard place in the not so distant future...
Edited to add.. and I don't believe any American would be "Happy" about that..
[ edited by maggiemuggins on Jun 29, 2005 06:42 PM ]
posted on June 29, 2005 07:05:11 PM new
Thank you for what appears to be an honest answer, maggie.
I think all we can do is keep working on our missile defense program...which many on the left would like to see canned. We might just need it.
I don't think we need worry about our 'allies' ....most likely the UK will always be with us..and other countries to the degree then can - especially if we need to fight communists.
But on your 'edit'...I don't agree. There are many socialists and communists in American who would LOVE to see nothing better. Might want to check out their websites to get updated on their 'cause'. And they know their parties can't 'go it alone' [their numbers aren't big enough] so they support the liberals in our Congress and the dem party in general.
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
"Whenever the nation is under attack, from within or without, liberals side with the enemy. This is their essence." --Ann Coulter
And why the American Voters chose to RE-elect President Bush to four more years. YES!!!
[ edited by Linda_K on Jun 29, 2005 07:08 PM ]
posted on June 29, 2005 07:18:25 PM newThere are many socialists and communists in American who would LOVE to see nothing better. Might want to check out their websites to get updated on their 'cause'. And they know their parties can't 'go it alone' [their numbers aren't big enough] so they support the liberals in our Congress and the dem party in general.
Huh? I'd like to see where these people would like to see a clash between China and the U.S.
posted on June 29, 2005 07:30:31 PM new
I'd also like to add that the reason I believe the US and China haven't gone to war is we both know the next war will most likely involved nuclear weapons. BOTH are smart enough what a disaster that would be for the world, let alone our two countries. So...they both have this 'leverage' that holds the other one back to a great degree.
But NW in the terrorists hands are a different matter. They don't CARE what destruction they bring....they're NOT worried about staying alive but rather are willing to strap bombs on themselves to murder innocents. And they'll be willing to do the same if they can use chem/bio weapons or NW against us too.
"Whenever the nation is under attack, from within or without, liberals side with the enemy. This is their essence." --Ann Coulter
And why the American Voters chose to RE-elect President Bush to four more years. YES!!!
posted on June 29, 2005 08:23:43 PM new
And then there is this today....
China tells U.S. not to meddle in oil deal
By UNITED PRESS INTERNATIONAL
Published June 29, 2005
BEIJING -- China expressed opposition to interference in a government-controlled oil company's bid for the U.S.-based oil company Unocal, state media said Wednesday.
Foreign Ministry spokesman Liu Jianchao said that China National Offshore Oil Corporation's $18.5 billion offer for Unocal was "normal commercial activity between enterprises."
Liu said "economic cooperation between China and the U.S. serves the interests of both sides and commercial activities should not be interfered in or disturbed by political elements."
There are growing concerns in Washington over the deal as some U.S. officials are uncomfortable with CNOOC, 70 percent owned by the Chinese government, controlling a major player in the U.S. energy sector.
Sino-U.S. commercial ties are strained on a variety of fronts as China emerges as major economic power, including a massive trade imbalance, widespread copyright and intellectual property infringements plus accusations the country manipulates its currency.
Xinhua reported Wednesday that CNOOC Chief Executive Fu Chengyu is heading to the United States for negotiations and to dispel concerns over the deal.
posted on June 29, 2005 08:29:32 PM new
China knows that in the long run they would be the losers, their neighbor to the north would love to see a war between US and China, they would side with the US, they have a history of not getting along.
Also China has learned that economics is the way, not military their show of a build up I believe is just that a show, sort of like our SDI.
Also quantity does not always make a winner, ask the former USSR, they outnumbered us in almost all areas.
posted on June 29, 2005 08:33:35 PM new
I'm not sure what you meant in your last post Ron?
Do we even have a say in this matter?
[ edited by maggiemuggins on Jun 29, 2005 08:35 PM ]
posted on June 29, 2005 08:47:55 PM newChina expressed opposition to interference in a government-controlled oil company's bid for the U.S.-based oil company Unocal, state media said Wednesday.
This bantering didn't just start....and there's always one nation or another opposing something being done somewhere. It's normal....and there's nothing wrong with the US expressing it's concerns about this deal. Remember WE have the right of free speech here in America, so if we object to anything - we speak out about it - let it be know.....the Chinese don't.
posted on June 29, 2005 08:57:19 PM new
I don't feel very comfortable, on top of everything else having China in control of an American oil company. Or am I not reading this article correctly?
posted on June 29, 2005 09:29:43 PM new
maggie - You're not alone in that concern....for sure.
Last week I'd read that all was said and done about this deal. That the Chinese bid was not going to be accepted and that Chevron's bid HAD been excepted.
But because of your question I did a quick search and this article says that Chevron has 'okay'd' allowing China's bid to be considered. Why? I have not idea.
But there is a panel that reviews these issues, that I wasn't even aware of. Interesting read.
posted on June 30, 2005 05:32:17 AM new
Now that we are bogged down in Iraq, Bush really needs China's support in dealing with North Korea. What a frightening scenario.
