posted on October 8, 2005 11:16:13 AM new
You've probably heard that this flu will kill 50% of the people it infects. They've discovered 5 cases in Toronto and a few possibly in Chicago. Because it's a virus, there's no cure, so at the very least, all of you please go out and buy some hand sanitizer (that alcohol gel stuff) and use it all the time. The CDC is expecting a pandemic which worries me. How do you guys feel about it?
posted on October 8, 2005 12:04:02 PM new
I heard a really interesting report on it the other day. Researchers were able to reconstruct the virus from the 1918(?) pandemic that killed millions world wide. They recovered it from the lung tissue of an Inuit woman whose body had been preserved because it was buried in permafrost...anyway, the researcher being interviewed was particularly concerned that this new virus bears many similarities to the 1918 model in the way it behaves. Particularly worrisome, it seems able to make the species jump from avian virus to human pathogen without the usual series of intermediary mutations that most flu versions require. So far it has killed 50 some out of a bit over 100 documented cases.
I'd say it's going to be a good winter to stay out of malls, theatres, airplanes and anyplace else that crowds are forced to breathe the same air. Of particular concern is schools. If people want to do something nice for their local schools, they should contact the school nurse and find out if the school has funds to provide a season's worth of hand sanitizer for every classroom, and if it plans to educate students and staff on their usage. We've already started our program. Kids know there will be behavioral consequences for sharing food and beverages, and all classes are sanitizing before and after recess breaks and lunch. Nobody is exempt. Studies in a number of schools by the CDC have shown that the sanitizer programs are much more effective than soap and water washing, mostly due to convenience. We did it last year, and I'd say it drastically cut down on our usual absences due to colds and the flu. Nobody had flu shots last year, and it's looking like we aren't going to get them this year either.
Scarey times.
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Habla siempre que debas y calla siempre que puedas....
posted on October 8, 2005 12:26:32 PM new
Kraft, the most recent article I can find indicates that researchers in Toronto have ruled out bird flu and SARS in the nursing home virus case that's going on there. I can't find anything about cases in Chicago. Where did you hear that stuff? The CDC website says there have been no cases in N. America so far.
Linda, if the link you posted reassures you, read THIS.
Looks like a trip south for a few bottles of Tamiflu is in order.
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Habla siempre que debas y calla siempre que puedas....
posted on October 8, 2005 12:42:06 PM new
Sorry, profe, and with no intention of insulting, but I never said it 'reassured' me. I only posted the link....which basically says the same thing your article does.
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Sounds like it will be almost impossible to get the necessary amounts of the vacine.
"Whenever the nation is under attack, from within or without, liberals side with the enemy. This is their essence." --Ann Coulter
And why the American Voters chose to RE-elect President Bush to four more years. YES!!!
posted on October 8, 2005 03:18:47 PM new
I didn't know if it made you feel better or not. You're right about the vaccine. IF they're able to get it into production it looks like it may be too little, too late.
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Habla siempre que debas y calla siempre que puedas....
posted on October 8, 2005 03:43:02 PM new
My cousin is an EMT in Toronto. He told me that, during the SARS epidemic there, he and his fellow workers had to wear these huge, white antiseptic suits that made them look like spacemen. Said some calls they answered, they nearly frightened the homeowners to death at the door. If SARS didn't kill them, the fright did.
posted on October 8, 2005 03:48:42 PM new
I wonder just how many American's would be willing to be out in public wearing those mouth masks to further reduce their chances of catching this from another person. So many appear to be so very vain about their looks....I wonder if we did have a major outbreak, would they risk their health, maybe their lives, in order to not look 'un-cool'?
posted on October 8, 2005 05:25:42 PM new
What I don't understand is why all the furor over this. the only recorded cases have been of people working directly with infected animals - as in spending the day cleaning pens and such thereby directly inhaling huge amounts of infected materials. There have been no recorded cases even of those infected individuals passing the flu onto other humans.
I think this is one of those cases of media created mania.
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An intelligent deaf-mute is better than an ignorant person who can speak.
posted on October 8, 2005 09:46:43 PM new
fenix, there are several suspected human to human infections, although none are confirmed. The furor over this, what's concerning the CDC people at this moment, is the apparent similarities in adaptability between this new virus and the 1918 strain. Specifically, the 1918 strain was able to rapidly adapt to human-human spread, bypassing the usual lengthy adaptation process that most viruses go through before completely jumping species. This one looks like it'll be able to react in a similar way. Couple that with it's much greater than normal mortality rate, and you've got a pretty ugly possibility.
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Habla siempre que debas y calla siempre que puedas....
posted on October 8, 2005 09:48:49 PM new
And I spent the day cleaning pens, by the way.
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Habla siempre que debas y calla siempre que puedas....
posted on October 9, 2005 05:28:30 AM new Effect Measure is keeping a blow by blow account of the spread of the avian virus...and the CDC, WHO and NIH are trying to keep up. I agree with Fenix that a human to human pandemic seems like an exaggeration right now--- but in the next few years, it may not be.
October 8, 2005
Bush Plan Shows U.S. Is Not Ready for Deadly Flu
By GARDINER HARRIs
New York Times
WASHINGTON, Oct. 7 - A plan developed by the Bush administration to deal with any possible outbreak of pandemic flu shows that the United States is woefully unprepared for what could become the worst disaster in the nation's history.
A draft of the final plan, which has been years in the making and is expected to be released later this month, says a large outbreak that began in Asia would be likely, because of modern travel patterns, to reach the United States within "a few months or even weeks."
If such an outbreak occurred, hospitals would become overwhelmed, riots would engulf vaccination clinics, and even power and food would be in short supply, according to the plan, which was obtained by The New York Times.
posted on October 9, 2005 06:31:39 AM new
Prof - you have the right to be concerned - but I think for the most part , you are the only one on these boards that does need to be at this point.
Do they make Tamiflu for chickens?
~~~ • ~~~ • ~~~ • ~~~ • ~~~
An intelligent deaf-mute is better than an ignorant person who can speak.
posted on October 9, 2005 07:50:26 AM new
I have a couple thoughts on this.
First: We're over do for some type of pandemic. "Natures way for thinning the population." Between the hurricanes, earthquakes and other natural disasters, I believe a large group of people, world wide, have lowered their immunity systems.
Secondly: At first I believed this may be a lot of hype. I've watched this "bird flu" for the last couple years because they told a friend he may have it. Turned out he had Lymes disease. (I wound up with it last year to)
I noticed how the government had jumped on the band wagon at a time when people were unhappy with both parties. It seemed to be just the thing to get people worried and thinking about something else.
I too wonder if there will be enough serum for the population and even if there is...we have so many displaced people in this country alone, that can't or won't take care of themselves, it seems like this could or would spread like wild fire.
Seriously, I do believe it’s possible and likely.
In closing let me say “The end is near” Send all your money to the Reverend. You won’t need it. I should be able to enjoy it.
posted on October 9, 2005 09:06:16 AM new "I noticed how the government had jumped on the band wagon at a time when people were unhappy with both parties. It seemed to be just the thing to get people worried and thinking about something else.
...As Bush now pleads...Be afraid. Be very afraid. But trust me.
posted on October 9, 2005 04:56:15 PM new
Damned if you do, and damned if you dont.
I can foresee the gripeing headlines two years from now: [i]...They knew about this back in 2005, and did nothing about it! No planning for this major [cough cough] pandemic whatsoever...[/i}
Then I can see the headlines sometime next week: {i] ..Many decry they're just trying to deflect attention away from the real issues.. [/i]
posted on October 9, 2005 05:48:58 PM new
I thought the Canadian nursing home breakout is Legionaire disease??
-sig file -------
Eat grass,kick ass,never go belly up!
posted on October 9, 2005 07:00:22 PM new
This is the current Plague Of The Year. As I commented last year, every year there is a media blitz and panic over a disease. Last year it was SARS. For a couple of months this disease will be harped upon from every direction...and then we won't hear any more about it.
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"Our enemies are innovative and resourceful, and so are we. They never stop thinking about new ways to harm our country and our people, and neither do we." -- George W. Bush
posted on October 10, 2005 07:54:23 AM newDo they make Tamiflu for chickens?
The poultry usually doesn't get sick from this, they're just carriers. My pen cleaning post above was in jest, I'm not worried about getting this from my poultry, it's when it makes the human-human jump that concerns me. I lost stock this year from West Nile virus, but none of us got sick.
I think it's important to keep an eye on this and be ready for it if it does happen. Ignoring it or passing it off as just this year's media-hyped disease is risky IMO, even if it doesn't pan out.
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Habla siempre que debas y calla siempre que puedas....
posted on October 10, 2005 01:22:54 PM new
Prof, I heard about it on The National (Canadian news) about the possibility of there being cases in Chicago. As for Toronto, they have a very large Chinese population with a lot of flights back and forth, so it doesn't surprise me. I agree with you 100% about this virus crossing the line - that's the worrisome and dangerous part.
posted on October 10, 2005 02:43:57 PM new
vancouver,los angelos and san fran all have large chinese population
-sig file -------
Eat grass,kick ass,never go belly up!
posted on October 13, 2005 09:02:41 AM new
Deadly bird flu strain confirmed in Turkey
Virus also detected in Romania; EU calls for emergency meeting
REUTERS Updated: 11:31 a.m. ET Oct. 13, 2005
BRUSSELS, Belgium - Turkey has the type of bird flu dangerous to humans and European authorities are working on the assumption that cases discovered in Romania are of the same strain, the European Union’s health chief said on Thursday.
His comments were the first official confirmation that the potentially lethal virus, which has killed more than 60 people in Asia since 2003, has now reached southeastern Europe.....
Fears of mutation
Experts fear H5N1 could mutate into a virus which spreads easily among humans, creating a pandemic that could kill tens of millions of people.
Maybe it's media hype, maybe it's diversion from the rest of thw world's ills...who knows?!?!
I will take it seriously. I have family members with depressed immune systems that I'm very concerned about. If for the cost of some surgical masks and hand sanitizer, I can protect my family members, I'll do it.
edited to add: I'm not hopeful for a vaccine any time soon or in enough quantity to make a difference. Especially since the UN has taken on the mission of getting drug companies to produce a vaccine.
[ edited by chimpchamp on Oct 13, 2005 09:09 AM ]
posted on October 13, 2005 09:32:17 AM new "I will take it seriously. I have family members with depressed immune systems that I'm very concerned about. If for the cost of some surgical masks and hand sanitizer, I can protect my family members, I'll do it.
Good plan, chimchamp. I agree that it's probably being exaggerated but scientists predict a problem sometime in the future. Tamiflu, if taken early may reduce the severity of the disease according to some physicians. That can be purchased on line or you may get a prescription from your physician.
Sorry for sales for that product from now on! hahaha!! 