posted on December 16, 2005 09:26:49 AM newBush's Efforts in Iraq Succeeding, Israeli Analysts Say
By Julie Stahl
CNSNews.com Jerusalem Bureau Chief
December 16, 2005
Jerusalem (CNSNews.com) -
Democracy is slowly taking hold in Iraq and the insurgency is losing its Sunni support-base in Iraq, analysts here said on Friday.
They spoke after some 11 million of Iraq's 15 million registered voters cast ballots on Thursday for a 275-seat parliament, a governing body called the Council of Representatives.
Voter turnout on Thursday was about 70 percent, compared with 63 percent in October's referendum on a draft constitution and 58 percent in elections last January.
"Basically the U.S. efforts are working and progress is being made, which doesn't mean there aren't problems," said Prof. Barry Rubin, an analyst with the GLORIA Center at the Interdisciplinary Center near Tel Aviv.
"The turnout is good because [it means] people think they're going to win. Intimidation isn't working. It shows that people want [democracy]," said Rubin.
President Bush, who referred to Thursday's election as a "watershed," has given a series of speeches this month, defending his Iraq war strategy against criticism from Democrats, who say he has no plan for victory and complain that he "misled" the country into war.
"The problem is the debate in the U.S. has very little to do with Iraq," said Rubin.
Terrorists quiet
Prior to the election, five militant groups decried the election as a "satanic project" that violated "the legitimate policy approved by God." But given greater Sunni participation this time around, the insurgents did not threaten to attack voting stations as they have done in previous polls.
"The success is that the terrorist organizations failed to torpedo the elections," said Dr. Michael Eppel from Haifa University.
Some of the most extremist Shiites agreed to "play the political game," said Eppel. The most important achievement is the participation of the Sunni Arabs - the mainstay of the insurgency, he said.
The Sunni community, which enjoyed a special position under Saddam Hussein, boycotted parliamentary elections in January, a move that left them out of discussions on drafting a constitution.
This time they understood that they had to participate in the elections to retain their power in the country, said Eppel.
Washington hopes that high voter turnout among the Sunni population will create Sunni confidence in the new government and lead to a decrease in the insurgency. That would make it easier for U.S. and other foreign troops to withdraw from Iraq.
The high Sunni participation is a sign that most Sunnis are against the terrorist organizations, said Eppel.
Terrorists like Abu Musab al Zarqawi, who leads al Qaeda in Iraq, are isolated now, he said. "They will continue to kill and murder but at the moment they are marginalized."
Iraqis happy
"The election is important not just because Iraqis defied the terrorist threat [but] because they want to make a difference," said Prof. Amatzia Baram, professor of Middle East History at Haifa University.
There violence will continue, but if Iraqis make the right decisions and put together a government within the next four or five months, it will be possible to see "the light at the end of the tunnel," said Baram.
Even with suicide bombings and a death toll that President Bush estimated at 30,000 Iraqis over the last three years, some 80 percent of Iraqis believe that it has been worthwhile to them, said Baram.
Some 90 to 100 percent of Iraqis may say that they are angry with the Americans; 80 percent say they want the Americans to leave, but if they were asked if they wanted the Americans to leave right now, today, only about 30 percent would say yes, Baram said.
According to Baram, the question that no one is asking the Iraqis is this: If they could cancel the last three years and return to the days of Saddam Hussein, what would they choose to do?
"My guess is that 70-80 percent would say... they don't want to go back to Saddam Hussein," he said.
In a recent poll commissioned by media organizations, 69 percent of Iraqis said they expected Iraq to improve, while 11 percent they expected things to worsen.
Asked to rank the priorities of a new government, 57 percent said that restoring public security was most important. The second priority was the departure of American troops at 10 percent and the third priority was rebuilding the country's infrastructure, BBC reported.
Long road ahead
The next few months will be critical in deciding the future of Iraq, said Baram.
Once the ballots are tallied -- which could take two weeks -- the newly elected parliament must choose a president and two vice-presidents from among its members. They will then choose a prime minister and other ministers from the council.
After they form a government they will have to start to re-negotiate the constitution, which purposely was left with "very large holes," said Baram. There are about 50 different items in the constitution that need definition, including how to distribute the country's oil revenues. Another issue is how closely Iraq will be connected to the Arab world, he said.
The question now is how much the majority Shiite population is willing to cooperate with the other groups, said Eppel.
About 60 percent of the 27 million Iraqis is Shiite, while 20 percent is Sunni and less than 20 percent Kurds.
U.S. debate
President Bush said this week that Iraq was the "central front in the war on terrorism." He said the U.S. was hunting terrorists and would fight the war and prevail. "That is why we will not leave until the war is won," he said.
Baram said that many Americans now feel that the war in Iraq was a mistake. But they are now looking at the war with 20/20 hindsight, he said. They need to consider that they were looking toward Iraq "through the prism of 2002" and the belief that Saddam Hussein possessed weapons of mass destruction, he said.
Some experts still believe that Saddam Hussein succeeded in hiding or smuggling his WMDs into Syria before the U.S. led invasion, he added.
[ edited by Linda_K on Dec 16, 2005 09:31 AM ]
posted on December 16, 2005 10:44:21 AM new
They REALLY put us to shame when you consider that no one was allowed to drive, take a taxi or a bus to the polls. They got 70% turn out and they all walked to the polls. It's hard not to respect that.
One of their top military leaders was on this morning sayingthat he believes that by the end of next year he felt they would be ready to take over full military control of the country needing only international back end support.
~~~ • ~~~ • ~~~ • ~~~ • ~~~
An intelligent deaf-mute is better than an ignorant person who can speak.
posted on December 16, 2005 10:50:28 AM newOne of their top military leaders was on this morning sayingthat he believes that by the end of next year he felt they would be ready to take over full military control of the country needing only international back end support.
That would be wonderful. THEN hopefully we'll be able to work at being more united rather than so divided on the Iraq war, as a country. Then large numbers of our troops can come home.
But the situation with Iran is pretty hot right now....and like desquirrel said...may just explode soon.
posted on December 16, 2005 10:53:33 AM new
The only way in which these elections may lead to a US withdrawal is that they will ensconce parliamentarians who want the US out on a short timetable. Virtually all the Sunnis who come in will push for that result (which is why the US Right is silly to be all agog about Fallujans voting), and so with the members of the Sadr Movement, now a key component of the Shiite religious United Iraqi Alliance. That is, these elections lead to a US withdrawal on terms unfavorable to the Bush administration. Nor is there much hope that a parliament that kicked the US out could turn around and restore order in the country.
posted on December 16, 2005 11:26:47 AM new
Or maybe they'd prefer the views from Front Page Magazine.com
Which, imo, are more accurate than anything your juancole has ever posted on his blog.
----
The election today in Iraq, the third since January, will create the most democratic regime in the history of Arab Islam and strike a devastating blow against the forces of Islamic terror -- and the international "progressive" left.
Since the beginning of this war for Iraqi freedom, the international left, led by its American comrades -- has been against this war for freedom in Iraq. They have done everything in their power first to protect the monstrous regime of Saddam Hussein from its well-deserved retribution, and then to protect the Zarqawi beheaders from their just deserts. This is the most shameful episode in the post-Communist history of the left.
Of course supporting the murderers of 100 million innocent human beings in the name of "social justice" was the work of the American and European and international left before that.
The left never changes; since the its first revolt against the bourgeois revolutions of the 18th Century, which brought liberty and free markets into the world, the left has been a reactionary force seeking a return to the status societies of the Middle Ages (whose aristocratic hierarchies it wishes to replace with hierarchies based race, gender and class) and to the tyranny of pre-market economies.
The left is an evil force. Its full-throated war against democratic America in the midst of America's war with radical, Jew-hating, Christian-hating, secularist-hatin, women-hating,gay-hating Islam should be the final nail in its political coffin. But don't hold your breath.
posted on December 16, 2005 01:57:44 PM new
People can vote all they want but what good does it do when more are killed each day and destruction surrounds them? The war is getting worse, not better at close to half a trillion dollars of your money.
posted on December 16, 2005 02:12:13 PM new
Kraft, there was a thread a while back where linda and others advocated genocide of all Muslims....Vendio had the good sense and intelligence to realize it was hate speech and pulled it.
posted on December 16, 2005 02:36:25 PM newThe war is getting worse, not better
Wrong.
The reign of terrorism is in four of 18 provinces in Iraq, not all 18. You dont hear of the 14 provinces were there is no insurgency and where things are going well.
The insurgency in Afghanistan is primarily in Kandahar providence (home of the Taliban) and in the mountain region on the Pakistani border. The rest of the country is doing well.
"“More Iraqis think things are going well in Iraq than Americans do. I guess they don’t get the New York Times over there.”—Jay Leno".
posted on December 16, 2005 02:53:01 PM new
Iraq has their government now. That is very good news.
TODAY the U.S. can start withdrawing troops.
TODAY American troops can stop loosing their lives in Iraq.
TODAY the U.S. can stop pouring billions of our tax dollars in Iraq. IRAQ HAS THEIR GOVERNMENT NOW.
Iraq having their own government now. Frees up all the people that voted for a "War President".
Those "WAR PRESIDENT" voters will now vote in 2006 for lawmakers that will best serve them here in America.
In 2008 those same voters can vote for a President that will best serve them here in America.
Just another reason this conservative form of government is CRUMBLING. Without a War this conservative government haven't done much good for the average American.
posted on December 16, 2005 02:56:34 PM new
Amen Bigpeepa!!!!!
Ya, Kraft, I strted writing a new Christmas song just for linda but she naturally never responded.
It was to the tune of Silent Night, Holy Night and started off:
Genocide, Genocide,
not too calm, not too bright....
posted on December 17, 2005 04:45:44 AM new
mingo,
Its just that everybody is so burnt out over this stupid senseless war. People like LIAR_K trying her hardest to put some kind of a good face or spin to a lousy war is just crazy.
There is no getting around the fact that our country is in one big mess. There is no getting around it that a large part of that mess was caused by Geo. Bush and his gang of quote "conservative lawmakers".
There is no getting around the fact that our present government is very corrupt and cares very little about the average American.
If average Americans can't see the beating they are taking under this government and don't start making changes in 2006. They will continue to get screwed and will deserve it.
Frankly I do not enjoy posting here because of people like LIAR_K, and Ron. In my book their types are just plain nasty wicked people.
[ edited by bigpeepa on Dec 17, 2005 04:47 AM ]
posted on December 17, 2005 07:54:17 AM new
Well, linda , here's your second laugh of the morning
Don't want you to get so excited about the Iraqis you hate and forget what's happening in THIS country :
By SUZANNE GAMBOA, Associated Press Writer
Tue Dec 13, 2:46 PM ET
WASHINGTON - A Texas prosecutor has issued subpoenas for bank records and other information of a defense contractor involved in the bribery case of a California congressman as part of the investigation of former House Majority Leader Tom DeLay.
District Attorney Ronnie Earle issued subpoenas late Monday afternoon for California businessmen Brent Wilkes and Max Gelwix, records of Perfect Wave Technologies LLC, Wilkes Corp. and ADCS Inc. in connection with a contribution to a fundraising committee at the center of the investigation that led to DeLay's indictment on money laundering charges.
Perfect Wave contributed $15,000 in September 20, 2002 to Texans for a Republican Majority, a fundraising committee founded by DeLay, R-Texas.
Former Rep. Randy "Duke" Cunningham resigned in late November after pleading guilty to taking $2.4 million in bribes to steer defense contracts to companies.
"He can subpoena all he wants, there's nothing there," said DeLay attorney Dick DeGuerin. "I think he's trying to dig himself out of a hole. We're not concerned about it."
The subpoenas also seek correspondence and internal accounting records.
Wilkes, head of Wilkes Corp., is one of four unnamed coconspirators listed in Cunningham's plea agreement, Wilkes' attorney, Michael Lipman of San Diego, has said. Lipman did not immediately return calls for comment.
Defense contractor ADCS and Perfect Wave Technologies are subsidiaries of Wilkes Corp.
Gelwix was listed in federal campaign records last year as president and CEO of Perfect Wave Technologies. A message left at his office was not immediately returned.
Wilkes' company also hired Alexander Strategies, a consulting firm that employed DeLay's wife Christine. His private jet company, Group W Transportation, provided flights to DeLay three times. DeLay reimbursed Group W as required, records show.
DeLay was forced to step aside as majority leader in late November after he was indicted on state charges of conspiracy to violate Texas election laws. A second grand jury indicted him on charges of conspiracy to launder money and money laundering charges.
The initial charges have been dismissed, but a judge has let stand the latter charges and DeLay faces possible trial on them.
Earle alleges that DeLay and two coconspirators funneled $190,000 in corporate contributions through the Texas political committee and an arm of the National Republican Committee to seven GOP state legislative candidates.
Earle alleges DeLay and his two associates were trying to circumvent Texas' law prohibiting spending corporate money on campaigns, except for administrative expenses.
DeLay, who denies wrongdoing, has been pressing for a quick resolution to his case so he can regain his majority leader job before his colleagues call for new leadership elections.
But Earle on Monday asked a judge to halt DeLay's trial while he appeals the dismissal of the conspiracy charge. The judge in the case has said he is unlikely to move forward with the case while the district attorney appeals, but set a pretrial hearing for Dec. 27.
posted on December 17, 2005 09:24:12 AM new
LIAR_K's laughing is akin to playing a fiddle while conservative Rome burned.
NATIONAL DEBT
12/15/2005 $8,099,288,248,245.65
U.S. TRADE DEFICIT
WASHINGTON Dec 14, 2005 — The U.S. trade deficit unexpectedly rose to an all-time high in October as oil shipments soared and the United States set deficit records with China, Europe, Canada and Mexico.
The Commerce Department reported that the gap between what America sells overseas and what it imports rose by 4.4 percent in October to $68.9 billion, surpassing the old record of $66 billion set in September.
So far this year, the trade deficit is running at an annual rate of $718 billion, far surpassing last year's $617.6 billion imbalance. Critics say the soaring deficit is evidence that President Bush's policy of pursuing free trade deals around the world is not working.
posted on December 17, 2005 09:27:43 AM new
Ya, Bigpeepa, but linda is also soooo busy complaining that she can't say Merry Christmas because of oppression and yet complaining that when OTHERS use their right to free speech the government should be allowed to investigate them without cause or warrant.
posted on December 17, 2005 11:37:02 AM new
People like LIAR_K have brought their confusion on themselves. She is laughing while her conservative house is getting burnt and is crumbling.
That's what de-louse-ional people like her get if you ask me.
I am betting she watches one of those MEGA CHURCHES on T.V. driven by the HERD MENTALITY. You know the mentality I am talking about, where a member of a herd does anything their leader does even to following them off a cliff.
It seems that several of the these conservative HERD MENTALITY types have already jumped to their immortality. YES!!! They have already jumped off a cliff following their leader a stack of money.
posted on December 17, 2005 12:04:56 PM new
Put it this way.
IT HASN'T Not since before we invaded Iraq has ONE of the left's 'lies' come true.
The dem party throws EVERYTHING they have at this administration....nothing sticks.
But they continue to successfully meet their goals....make all these accomplishments and bring us closer to a time when the Iraqi's can take care of themselves.
That's being successful....something the dem party hasn't seen in their own party in way too many years.
So keep complaining and making up all kinds of terrible senarios that are supposedly going to happen.....they'll just keep working away for the American people. The voters will see that before the upcoming elections too.
They'll ask what have the dems done for our country besides stir up all this crap, put roadblocks in this administrations way....block every attempt the reps make to accomplish the work of the people.....
posted on December 17, 2005 12:49:46 PM newI'm laughing at all the doom and gloom you and your party has been saying is just around the corner.
Just like Bush is using fear and scare tactics to promote his war on terror. He has been using the same scare tactics for 5 years now.
Americans you must give up your civil liberities so that the terrorists will not attack us again. Meanwhile, Bush has doing nothing to protect the borders, airline safety can still be better.
Absolute faith has been shown, consistently, to breed intolerance. And intolerance, history teaches us, again and again, begets violence.
---------------------------------- The duty of a patriot in this time and place is to ask questions, to demand answers, to understand where our nation is headed and why. If the answers you get do not suit you, or if they frighten you, or if they anger you, it is your duty as a patriot to dissent. Freedom does not begin with blind acceptance and with a flag. Freedom begins when you say 'No.'
posted on December 17, 2005 01:42:26 PM new
LIAR_K,
You can thank the Democrats and the American people for forcing this White House and its conservative lawmakers into talking about troop withdrawal from Iraq. With Iraq having a government now its time for our troops to get out of there.
The American people and Democrats are showing your conservative party how a Democracy works.
Hey LIAR_K, you said, "I'm laughing at all the doom and gloom you and your party has been saying"
Don't try to pull your doom and gloom BULL ROAR routine again on me. Give me and others from my party specifics. We are ready to discuss your specifics.
Or is your statement just another bunch of (running on empty) words because you have nothing left.
