posted on October 18, 2008 01:17:08 PM new
Hey cash, do you participate with intrade? I've only had a bit of time to look into it but it's interesting. Better than online poker maybe
posted on October 18, 2008 01:21:13 PM new
McCain's charts at 16.5, down from an all time high of about 53.
[ edited by profe51 on Oct 18, 2008 01:21 PM ]
The faint green line is the volume of trading, with the scale on the left-hand side of the graph (the scale on the right-hand side is the price).
McCain's price is basically 100 - Obama's price (for all practical purposes, there are only 2 candidates running). I was going to answer about McCain's price, but realized that Intrade has a description:
Since our contracts trade between 0 and 100, you can think of the price at any time to be the percentage probability of that event occurring. Let's go back to our George Bush example, on December 1, 2003 the George Bush re-election contract was trading at 63, meaning, traders gave him a 63% chance of being re-elected.
If you thought President Bush will be re-elected you would expect that price to go up - towards 100. In that case, if you bought one contract at 63 and Mr. Bush did get re-elected you would make the difference between your purchase price - 63 - and the closing price - 100 - or 37 points. How much profit would that be? Click here.
It's important to realize that you don't have to hold your contracts until the result of the event is decided - you can get out of your position at any time until the event is over. So if you change your mind about the outcome you can come back to the exchange, enter an order and close out your position, whether it's for a profit or loss depends on you.
I haven't traded with Intrade, but have only looked at it for general information. Markets, for whatever else they are or aren't, are usually pretty good predictors. IMHO, they're more accurate than polls.
I would consider trading it, even though I've decided not to do online poker (I must read and watch more poker than anyone else who never plays ). Maybe if I study one of the "less watched" areas and develop an edge of some sort.
posted on October 19, 2008 07:56:13 AM new
He was quite eloquent in giving his reasons. Although McCain has been his friend for 25 years, Powell knows his shortcomings. He mentioned indecisiveness of McCain regarding the economy. Also mentioned the direction of the Republican party--which has moved way to the right, and the tactics of the Republican campaign, which we all know about.
This should help Obama with undecideds and Republicans, but it aint over till its over. My Italian background will not allow me to say Obama will "you know what" for fear of jinxing the election.
posted on October 19, 2008 09:54:16 AM new
I won't say it either, but another conservative bastion, The Salt Lake City Tribune, has just endorsed Obama. I guess they're miffed that he didn't pick Romney.
They said about Palin "....grievously underequipped to step into the presidency should McCain, at 72 and with a history of health problems, die in office. More than any single factor, McCain's bad judgment in choosing the inarticulate, insular and ethically challenged Palin disqualifies him for the presidency."
Is it just me, or is there a trend happening here?
posted on October 19, 2008 10:10:55 AM new
Profe: One correction. The Salt Lake Tribune has been known in Utah for its liberal, most ly democratic, views, as opposed to the Deseret News. The Trib was started in the 1800s by "gentiles" who wanted another voice in the state to counterbalance the D. News. It was much vilified by the good church people and is still sniffed suspiciously at. I'm not surprised the Trib has endorsed Obama; the endorsement of the Ogden Standard-Examiner or of the Deseret News would be even bigger stories. ~Adele
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posted on October 19, 2008 02:43:44 PM new
roadsmith, I stand corrected..forgive my bigotry, I just assumed that any paper that would sell enough copies to stay in business in Utah would have to be conservative...mea culpa.
posted on October 19, 2008 09:16:20 PM new
Easy assumption to make, profe. You are excused!
Actually, I might be wrong about the Romney angle; I don't think the Trib would have been pulling for him. They were pretty cynical about the Romney Rescue of our Olympics, riding in on a brave steed. Most Utahns felt it was just done to move him into political position--and of course it worked.
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