posted on October 20, 2008 12:06:31 PM new
Gallup Daily: Obama’s Lead Edges Higher NEW October 20, 2008
Gallup Poll Daily tracking now gives Barack Obama an 11 percentage point lead over John McCain in the presidential vote preferences of all registered voters, 52% to 41%. Obama still leads, but by single digits, among “traditional” and “expanded” likely voters.
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A poll is not a prediction. It is a snapshot of how people are thinking right now.
posted on October 20, 2008 03:03:27 PM new
Oh bear, I don't really care which poll, I just quote gallup because squirrel thinks it is the gospel. At any rate, he is ahead in all of the polls.
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A poll is not a prediction. It is a snapshot of how people are thinking right now.
posted on October 20, 2008 03:52:18 PM new
pixia, I know, but like I said, it doesn't matter, because Obama is ahead in all!
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A poll is not a prediction. It is a snapshot of how people are thinking right now.
posted on October 20, 2008 04:36:03 PM newBear, you are a world class racist
Yes, he is and he must be proud of it. Disguisting. It will bite him in the butt in the end.
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A poll is not a prediction. It is a snapshot of how people are thinking right now.
posted on October 20, 2008 05:28:32 PM new
My husband found an article by some scientists that says Obama will need 6 points MORE than the margin of error in these polls to win the presidency, due to the racial factor. Yikes.
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posted on October 21, 2008 08:27:01 AM new
Adele, are you sure your husband didn't find an article that said Obama may actually have that 6 point lead due to the number of new voters he's registered who are not being counted in the current polls? I heard something to that effect yesterday. If that's the case, strike the yikes and add "yippee".
posted on October 21, 2008 08:43:34 AM new
I think that, in the privacy of the voting booth, many life-long supporters of McCain's centrist's policies, will take a deep breath- think about the not-so-improbable chance that Palin could be president, and pull the Obama lever.
posted on October 21, 2008 09:01:40 AM new
Come on, bear, what's the real reason you don't like Obama? Is it because he's a democrat or because he's black? Or, is it both? Come on, be honest for a change. From where I sit you appear to be a backwoods militant bigot. But, hey, that's just my observation based on your board comments. Sure would be nice to know the truth for once.
Cheryl
Whitman said she and McCain share a philosophy of scaling back the role of government. a point of view partly shaped by her EBay experience. "The EBay model is very Republican in its essence -- it's about making a small number of rules and getting out of the way while not overtaxing the community," she said.
en. Barack Obama has a sizable lead over Sen. John McCain, polls show, but those numbers could be deceiving if the "Bradley effect" comes into play.
Polls show that Sen. Barack Obama has a sizable lead over Sen. John McCain.
Polls show that Sen. Barack Obama has a sizable lead over Sen. John McCain.
The Bradley effect is named after former Los Angeles Mayor Tom Bradley, an African-American who ran for California governor in 1982.
Exit polls showed Bradley leading by a wide margin, and the Democrat thought it would be an early election night.
But Bradley and the polls were wrong. He lost to Republican George Deukmejian.
The theory was that polling was wrong because some voters, who did not want to appear bigoted, said they voted for Bradley even though they did not.
"People will usually tell you how they voted after the election, but we found in the Bradley campaign ... that people were actually not telling us who they voted for," said Charles Henry, who researched Bradley's election.
The Bradley effect is also called the "Wilder effect," after Douglas Wilder, Virginia's former governor. He won by just one-tenth of a percent, but as he pointed out to CNN, "people forget -- in the exit polls, I was still double-digits ahead." Video Watch how the Bradley effect could affect the polls »
According to CNN's latest poll of polls, Obama is leading McCain by 8 percentage points, 50 to 42.
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Some analysts say the race could be much closer or even tied if the Bradley effect is factored in. iReport.com: iReporter pleads with voters to 'stop the racism'
"It leaves a question mark over this race, and we won't have the final answer until the votes are counted," said David Gergen, a senior political analyst for CNN.
But there could be an opposite effect, Wilder said.
"There's going to be a reverse Wilder or Bradley effect. ... There are some Republicans who are not going to say out front that they're going to be voting for Obama, but they're going to be, because the economy is what's driving people to consider what's in their best interest," he said.
Some analysts say the Bradley effect can account for 6 percentage points against an African-American candidate
Michelle Obama told CNN's Larry King that a lot has changed since Bradley lost.
"That was several decades ago, and I think there's been growth and movement," she said. "I just believe that the issues are going to weigh in people's hearts more so as they go into the voting booths this time around."
Former San Francisco Mayor Willie Brown said last week that he thinks the Bradley effect could cost Obama several battleground states -- and possibly the presidency.
Race "is still a problem in this country," Brown told CNN. "It goes away when there are other troubles that are more challenging, and right now, whether or not we survive in the economy is more challenging. But race could rear its ugly head. I just hope it doesn't before November 4."
In the past 15 years or so, there's been no indication in the polls that the Bradley effect has been a factor in statewide races.
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Bill Schneider, CNN's senior political analyst, said that if there is racism in this year's election, it's probably already showing up in the polls. And Keating Holland, CNN's polling director, pointed out another important caveat:
"We've never had a black presidential candidate as a major nominee, so the polls don't have any history at all when it comes to national elections," he said.
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posted on October 21, 2008 10:17:21 AM new
For those who doubt the validity of polls (I'm not 100% sold on them myself), there is the economic model which predicts Obama will win the popular vote by 8.6%. The model has correctly predicted the winner of the election and the winner of the popular vote 12 out of 14 times. The exceptions were: 1968 when it predicted Humphrey would win over Nixon and in 2000 when it predicted Bush would win the election and the popular vote (which, in case any of us forgot, was won by Gore).
posted on October 21, 2008 10:29:40 AM new
There might also be a "Palin effect" where people who have been saying to the pollsters that they would vote for McCain decide, once in the booth, that they just can't pull the lever for the almost-cadaver-who-wont-release-his-medical-report with the wingnut behind him.
Edited to add: Pixiamom, I overlooked your comment to the same effect before. I didn't mean to repeat it, but anyway, I'm with you on that!
[ edited by cashinyourcloset on Oct 21, 2008 10:31 AM ]
posted on October 21, 2008 10:40:03 AM new
Does Obama still have an 11 point lead? I thought it was tightening to something like 6 or 8.
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posted on October 21, 2008 12:01:04 PM new
11 pts. on gallup (squirrel's favorite when it is in McCain's favor).
***
A poll is not a prediction. It is a snapshot of how people are thinking right now.
posted on October 21, 2008 12:02:47 PM new
World Citizens Prefer Obama to McCain by Nearly 4-to-1
October 21, 2008
Gallup Polls conducted in 70 countries representing more than 2 billion of the world's adult citizens reveal a nearly 4-to-1 preference for Sen. Barack Obama over Sen. John McCain among those who say they know enough to have an opinion. Citizens in Europe are the most likely to state a preference for the next president of the United States, while citizens in Asia are the least likely. Only Georgia and the Philippines prefer McCain to Obama.
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A poll is not a prediction. It is a snapshot of how people are thinking right now.
posted on October 21, 2008 12:43:49 PM new
Obama has won the three must reliable indicators. He won the scholastic vote taken by school kids. He's winning based on the number of halloween masks sold and cookies sold with his face on them.
Ok - these definetely aren't scientific, but the "winners" of these three things do usually end up being the winner of the presidential election.
[ edited by cherishedclutter on Oct 21, 2008 12:44 PM ]
It will bite him in the butt in the end.
