posted on March 6, 2001 02:57:04 PM
Seems to me that the Internet is coming down in chunks. I am reading 10% less traffic at the major sites, but it feels like more.
Stock boards (Yahoo) that I have frequented for years that used to generate 100 + posts a day, now get 10 a week and 5 of those are spam. Of course, Y auctions has been decimated, nothing left but smoke and rubble.
Go.com disturbs me the most. The fact that Disney is abandoning the Internet (I believe they were #5 portal) is not a little factoid to dismiss. I posted from time to time on one of their boards that was thriving and the announcement left the regular users "homeless".
I am a regular reader of f***edcompany.com and every day - more devastation, and it leaves me wondering.....
What is the future of the Internet now?
Does anyone else think the sky is falling?
posted on March 6, 2001 03:46:22 PM
Good thread. (You may now display my seal of approval).
I see the recent shut downs as more of a shaking out....a weeding out....of sorts.
Also, it should be noted that Disney is not closing its' other sites, most importantly the Disneystore.com. To me that suggests that they feel that selling online *is* a valuable tool.
I've never tracked online traffic, but I wonder if that 10% decrease you mention is a seasonal thing. Less shopping this time of year, maybe.
Maybe the general focus of people have changed. It wouldn't surpise me to find out that people are spending more time, for example, at monster.com or other headhunting sites than say, the yahoo stock boards.
posted on March 6, 2001 04:00:03 PM
Hiya lotsafuzz - I hope you're right, but I don't think it is seasonal.
The stock boards were buzzing people people were trading stocks left and right but no more, so where does that leave datek and etrade, etc.??
Surely it is only a matter of time before we start to see failures in that secto
What about
etoys...?
the drugstore, whichever one dropped out.
Stamps.com in trouble.
Amazon?
Rumor that Yahoo is in far more trouble than has been made public.
???
Personally, I think we will witness the dismantling of a large part of the Internet, and to me it is nothing less than traumatic.
I see the regulars from the go board mulling around. Internet homeless and sense of security severely compromised. It is like, set up shop, but don't unpack...
The Internet going away! NO WAY! Did the wheel ever go away! Did language! It is here to stay and will most likely antiquate many things that are common to us now. The Gold Rush here is waning! However, the foreign markets are yet to be tapped to their full extent. Yahoo and Ebay have been aggressively investing in foreign sites trying to capture their slice of the pie. Some might consider the depressed stock prices as a field of opportunity waiting to be plowed.
posted on March 6, 2001 04:43:44 PM
But kc what about the reality that sales of goods on the Internet = lower prices gleaned. This is what we have all learned these last few years.
And what about all the services (AW) included trying to transition to fees. How much will we pay?
$100 a month to log onto Yahoo and monitor our portfolio, chat, visit our clubs and read the news, beam our money? $200?, $400?
If we don't pay, who will, and will we pay for less which is what we are getting on the internet each week.
Free web hosting? Not for long.
The landscape seems to be going to bland.
Unusual offerings on ebay?
Less every day.
It reminds me when I was shopping for shutters for my house. I can have X, Y, or Z color and that's it. There is ONE supplier to Home Depot, Builder's Square and Home Base.
Borrrrring.
I also hear that isp fees are going to rise, starting with AOL.
I am not arguing that there is not going to be an Internet, but it seems pure denial to believe that significant portions are here today but not tomorrow and less start ups on the horizon.
"Say!"
"How about we take our money build a portal right there where Disney failed?"
Not likely.
posted on March 6, 2001 04:52:33 PM
Eventually as foreign students go home and find themselves cut off from the net and gain influence, and as more and more scientists from third world countries are unable to keep up with the latest developments because they are told "It is all on our site, why publish?" There will be a ground swell of pressure on political leaders in other countries to open up access before their country falls behind. Now shortsighted interests are intent on keeping costs high but eventually it will be obvious that you have to open up or turn into a joke.
When the vast majority of the world has access it will be very different. I would love to be able to buy and sell directly with individuals all over the world.
posted on March 6, 2001 04:53:04 PM
So I am a long time Yahoo'r and I have noticed the news updates less frequently which translates to being less vital for the user.
I am guessing that they pay for the news feed and updates every 15 min cost one rate, every 2 hours cost less and so they pay less and deliver less.
If this is the case, then the news services can cut staff because of reduced demand and a little more melts away.
What am I missing? VeryModern Space Junk
posted on March 6, 2001 04:53:22 PM
We must be on the same wavelength, VM
I was just thinking today that, should my computer bite the dust, I'm not sure I will feel the need to purchase another.
- I very rarely surf anymore
- I'm no longer running auctions on eBay (stopped buying on eBay long ago)
- My only "store" purchases have been books and CDs from Amazon, and I haven't bought from them since the Spring of 2000.
I would, however, miss being able to e-mail a thought or a question at the drop of a hat. Since I've never been one for hanging on a phone, I would have to go back to writing letters <gasp>.
Going back to letter writing might not be a bad thing, though.
Remember what it was like opening up the mailbox and seeing a letter from a friend or relative?
Remember the anticipation you felt when opening it, and then savoring every word?
I was always sorry I didn't have a computer when my daughter was in college so that we could stay in touch through e-mail. (We did not have Internet or e-mail access on our computers at work.)
But, you know, she saved every letter I wrote to her over the 4 years. I was particularly diligent when she was studying abroad.
Bet she doesn't have any of the emails I've sent over the last 3 years.
Even though some of the newness has worn off, I do think that if you have school age children, then a computer and access to the Internet, in the home, is and will continue to be an educational must.
posted on March 7, 2001 04:01:53 AM
I think that if you look at history, you will see that what is happening to the internet has happened many times before.
Any time there is a new innovation, such as railroads, there are initially many who jump on the bandwagon. We had little railroad companies all over the country. But the companies who did not have reliable service at competitive prices were swallowed up by larger companies, or died. Not always good for the consumer, price wise, but only the 'strong survive' and we are left with the most efficiently run railroad or internet.
Being able to talk, shop, get news on the internet was a novelty at first, just as television was. We will probably never see the traffic at that high level again. But the internet has become a part of daily life for many people, and I don't think it's ever going to die. Particularly for those who do not have access to the shopping in larger cities, or those who collect but don't have time to go hunting all day, the internet is here to stay.
posted on March 7, 2001 05:44:09 AM
Another aspect of it is that people like me who are deaf or have other disabilities are not going to go back to the telephone - it is simply not an option.
posted on March 7, 2001 06:06:27 AM
It is not that I think that the Internet is going away. I just note that 6 or 8 mos Yahoo was going to bring the masses online .
Remember - "BlueLight" the joint isp with K-mart) and this is no more. These days everyone wants rid of the low end customer which truth be told is MOST people.
What is occurring to me is that it will go back to what it was which is "elite".
The health club analogy may be a good one. Everyone piles in, seems like a good idea at the time, but far fewer of us are suited to it long term. After our "free month" I mean.
I am still haven't heard anyone offer to pay or offer to explain to me who is going to pay for them. Are you sure that it will not turn into glorified ham radio? They are building all these big pipes into our houses to bring up all this stimulation and maybe we don't want it anymore.
Hey, I dunno, I am asking, but...
They not only can't sell ads on the Internet, they can't sell them in the local paper or even the Superbowl so costs are going to go up for the user and the question remains..
Who is willing to pay?
posted on March 7, 2001 01:07:12 PM
As long as there is "AuctionWatch," and as long as there is "krs," the Internet will survive into the next millenium.
posted on March 7, 2001 01:36:13 PM
the Internet is not shutting down, it's growing. The focus of transactions has changed, many more transactions are "B2C" not individual to individual. The Internet continues to gain new business uses. For example, the product specifications and RFP issued by an airline manufacturer used to be copied and mailed or FedEx'd to all vendors interested in submitting a proposal. Many trees died and delivery costs were substantial. Now Boeing or other manufacturer can post the RFP on a website, give the vendor an id to log in, and they can print only as many copies as they need, with instant access to the original document and approved revisions for all engineers at the vendor's site. This provides tremendous time and cost savings for industry and I believe it will continue to grow.
Electronic payments between large companies and their vendors will continue to increase also.
A decrease in traffic to Ebay or entertainment sites does not mean the Internet is withering away, just that the focus of the activity has changed.
Even on Ebay, even though we rarely sell collectibles or antiques anymore there, our sales of computer equipment, software and business equipment have greatly increased, even more than we hoped. Just a different focus.
The sites and users that adjust to the different focus will survive and grow. As lotsafuzz pointed out the Disney store is still up and running, and probably selling well. Go.com had no independent source of income that I know of, not that I'm an expert, but without an income stream, well, how do you survive in the long run?
As lotsafuzz said it's a weeding out, and new crops will grow. It depends on where you're looking, I guess.
posted on March 7, 2001 09:38:34 PM
VM
You ask about realized prices on Ebay! Simply economics of supply and demand! To many sellers not enough buyers.
Free services! With the NASDAQ in the dirt. No investors there to throw money at the maybeIwillmakeitbig.com's So AW is taking the next logical step to generate a alternate revenue source, charge the people who use the service.
Who pays! We pay! I ask what is all this chattiness worth to you. However, at this juncture there must be a distinction made as to what purpose the internet serves you.
Look how much people pay for cable, with the advent of HDTV, I smell a integration of the internet and TV looming in the horizon. However, this is speculation.
My take from finacial standpoint, If I can conduct biz and yield reasonable profit in lieu of their fees. I am in there! If I can't, I am gone!
As far as the shutters go, Make them! You have had adobe 101!
My belief is that traditional sectors are patiently watching this debacle unfold, when the dust settles they will be there ready to start investing in the internet. They have wittnessed the way of failure!
posted on March 8, 2001 09:12:52 AM
Hello VeryModern,
Who is willing to pay?
I'm willing to pay to have my own website where folks with an interest in cryptology can congregate.
You're willing to pay for your website, aren't you?
If a big company doesn't find the Internet a cost effective way to market its products or services or to make money by advertising for others then it isn't going to pay.
posted on March 13, 2001 05:08:58 AM
This is a pool on Motley Fool regarding Yahoo fees.
Query:
>>Yahoo! is actively considering the possibility of offering a package of its services on a for-pay basis. Let's just say this
package included My Yahoo!, Yahoo! Finance, and Yahoo! Mail. Would you be willing to pay $5 a month for this
package?>>
