posted on December 18, 2000 09:58:04 PM
yes, Marie, amal is so right!
In my experience CDs sell REALLY well on Yahoo. If you can get those feature credits it would be even better. You could easily keep your listings at the top of the stack for months on end!
I just want you to know that an item I recently featured on Yahoo closed with well over 2,000 page views. And I only paid 15¢ per day to feature that item. Yahoo is a viable marketplace if you have the right items for sale at good prices. And YOU do, unlike some of the people that you may hear griping about how "impossible" it is to sell anything on Yahoo. Those people are seriously misguided and are most likely trying to sell their Ebay rejects at astronomical prices- and it's not fair for them to blame Yahoo that their junk isn't selling.
posted on December 18, 2000 10:02:46 PM
One more thing I just wanted to tell you Marie- I already voted with my feet with my book sales. I don't list my books on Ebay anymore thanks to that half.com banner add malarky. Ebay has a much smaller share of my business than they did before, and I'm selling through amazon.com for the first time ever on marketplace. I'm finding that diversifying a bit has worked REALLY well for me, especially since ebay's site is so unstable. Now I know I'll still have income even if ebay is down- and that is a really good feeling.
posted on December 18, 2000 10:39:19 PM
While I'm not disagreeing with the speculation, since I have shaken my head at most of eBay's actions in 2000; what I still don't understand is why. Sure, "promises" where made, growth in new directions is being pursued; but even if a company pursuing new forms of growth, why would they look to seemingly deprecate what is still a vital, and seemingly profitable model? Maybe I'm naive, but I'd think it could remain the still-fairly-hot core of eBay's "new world." Why hollow that out? Why not add new stuff but keep the "traditional" model intact, as a still healthy, if apparently plateauing, income and profit source?
While it could be argued that the traditional model isn't just plateauing, that it's waning (declining bids? ), further necessitating growth into new areas, I'm not sure how the causes and effects can be separated from each other to see if and what is happening. Even if it is declining for causes separate of eBay's own actions of late, why needlessly hasten the decline?
Again, I'm not necessarily disagreeing with the speculation, because I've seen the events too, but I don't understand why eBay would even try flying their old model into the ground while it still seems airworthy. So I find it hard to believe eBay would do this intentionally, like deciding mid-way through their flight, that they can now dump some of their fuel, or now that their approaching the "promised land," that they can power down an engine.
Can anyone advance a reason it would make sense to do this intentionally, at this point? I'm confused.
posted on December 18, 2000 11:14:46 PM
"Can anyone advance a reason it would make sense to do this intentionally, at this point? I'm confused."
All equity value in the dot coms are based on speculative growth. Their PE ratios are through the roof. The only way to justify these evaluations is to have continuing exponential growth. eBay can not meet these growth expectations with its garage sale model.
The real "value" of eBay's garage sale model is not in the sellers. Sellers are easy to replace and there are arguably too many sellers as it is. eBay's value to be parlayed is its BUYERS.
This huge stable of buyers is what eBay will use to attempt to expand into a retail model from a garage sale model. eBay does not value sellers because we offer no marketable unique value on their books.
Although we pay Listing fees and FVF fees, eBay knows that as soon as one of us drops out there are 3 more to take our place. eBay, just as other similar venues, offers an ease of entry into selling that the market has never seen before. Sellers are not like a Ford dealership that might go out of business. Ford Motor Company has a vested market stake in the dealership. A dealership can not appear overnight. An eBay seller can appear and disappear in literally seconds.
eBay wanted sellers to bring in the buyers. That done, we are an easily replaced element in the business model, and of little value in thier future business model. However, this is a result of the garage sale model reaching its full potential. eBay was far more friendly to sellers when the garage sale model was still in its growth stage.
Since the online garage sale market has peaked, sellers are yesterdays news and easy to come by. I would also add, that some sellers seem to think because their items are expensive, they are not garage sellers. I classify a garage sale item as anything that is not new, and not mass produced/marketed, regardless of the price.
Before its over, 2 things we may see are higher listing and FVF in the new year, and a minimum FB rating to remain a seller on the site - which may take the form of a splitting of the site into 2 venues- new retail and everything else. Guess which site will get top billing and marketing ?
posted on December 18, 2000 11:30:37 PM
And not to be too paranoid here, but is it really in Ebay's best interest (from their point of view) to even HAVE professional sellers.
Sellers with a "garage sale" mentality -- those who are just clearing out personal items that they would otherwise dontate to charity or throw away -- and even occasional "semi-pro" sellers dont' keep up with all of this stuff. They don't care if Mr Lister is down for a week.
They won't notice incremental fee increases. They don't keep track of outages. You get the idea.
From Ebay's point of view, if ads from BMG bring in more revenue than fees collected from OneCentCds, Ebay chooses the immediate pay off. Never mind that they are destroying the entire purpose of their site. All they are concerned with is meeting next quarter's revenue projections.
posted on December 19, 2000 12:47:40 AM
If you folks have been follwing the news, the RIAA has been trying to crack down on online piracy and copyright infringement (and BMG "slept" with Napster BTW).
Marie, ever wonder that your CD selling is slapping the faces of the RIAA??
I've told folks about you and your CD's, and many balk and don't believe me. But, they find out, and wonder how the hell you can offer prices lower than Tower or Borders, or *GASP* those Used CD shops.
And, since the RIAA is trying to dash any hopes of "free" music, or cheap music...
Maybe this is some sort of plot by the RIAA to undermine your business model, and force the regular consumer to pay those extravogate prices at the store!!
Or...i'm being a self-minded idiolystic jerk with nothing better to do that write conspiracy theories.
But then again, they went after Napster and MP3.com...who's to say the RIAA is gonna go after you next??
I bet you got a few auctions closed now and again because the artists balked at your selling practices. Did you ever get some Mettalica or Dr. Dre CD Auctions killed by chance??
:\\\"Crystalline Sliver cannot be the target of spells or abilities.
posted on December 19, 2000 02:28:01 AM
"Sellers with a "garage sale" mentality -- those who are just clearing out personal items that they would otherwise dontate to charity or throw away -- and even occasional "semi-pro" sellers dont' keep up with all of this stuff. "
I don't distinguish between a "pro" or otherwise based on how they make their living or where they get there items, and neither does eBay. If you're selling used items, whether its a $20,000 used car, a $3000 antique, or a $10 Beanie, you're a garage sale model vendor.
A retail pro is the one with the capital and infrastructure to move 10,000 or more items PER DAY through eBay, all items being new. One pro vendor like this can replace the revenue from thousands of the garage sale model sellers - which is what we all are. And it will be much more profitable for eBay to deal with one seller moving 10,000 items in one day than 10,000 sellers moving one item per day. Just the administrative savings from this model would be huge. Can you imagine the personel cost savings servicing several huge vedors compared to servicing thousands of different vendors ?
What I have mentioned above is exactly the model eBay must move to in order to approach the revenues they have projected. If you think you don't have much clout as a seller at eBay now, just wait until the big boys arrive. eBay's attitude wil be- if you don't like it leave - we have more garage sale type vendors than we need.
posted on December 19, 2000 07:24:37 AMI don't distinguish between a "pro" or otherwise based on how they make their living or where they get there items, and neither does eBay.
I think you may be right about where Ebay is going in the long run. But for now, there is a difference between someone between someone who makes a living from Ebay and someone who just sells their occasionally. From our point of view, the difference is that we (full time sellers) are responsible for the vast bulk of their revenue. From Ebay's point of view, we are responsible for the vast majority of their headaches.
And this makes the transition to the type of site that you are talking about much easier. Casual sellers won't even NOTICE that you are running competitive banner ads -- or even something much more "integrated" into the site.
Early next year, Ebay is releasing an API. This is basically a way to interface with the site that gives all kinds of flexibility. But they are initially limiting it to only a select number of "partners." It's possible that this API could be used by people like AW to make Ebay SO much easier for professional sellers. But I suspect they will use it in a very different way, somehow heading toward attracting the giant retailers.
posted on December 19, 2000 09:38:32 AMFrom Ebay's point of view, we are responsible for the vast majority of their headaches.
Yes, I think that's true.
If you think you don't have much clout as a seller at eBay now, just wait until the big boys arrive.
Yes, but much of this discussion pre-supposes that eBay buyers will simply accept those changes and go right on buying as before. I don't believe they will. eBay does not depend solely on garage sale sellers. It also depends on garage sale BUYERS. By focusing on retail, fixed-price items, all the "fun" of eBay goes right out the door:
1) Finding that hard-to-find collectible item
2) Practicing the art of finesse bidding
3) The adrenaline rush of winning an auction in the last few seconds
4) Buying it for much less that you would have paid at a collector's shop
eBay is banking on its customer base, but there's no reason to believe that if "garage sale" sellers move on, buyers won't follow close behind. I don't think eBay buyers want an online K-Mart at all.
posted on December 19, 2000 09:53:32 AMreamond: Thank you for your clear explanations of what might be happening and why. I've not been really understanding the related speculation and theories on this board because I could not find a reason to believe why eBay would want to do such a thing. This brings the theories of a number of other threads into crystal clarity, and unfortunately, I find, at least for now, what you say to be entirely believable.
The dot-coms, as a whole, were tremendously overvalued in 1999, and while it has always seemed clear that when the bubble burst, many would be flying into bankrupcy, being that they've been burning through fuel very rapidly, but I missed the idea that most (all? ) of the rest would have to continue climbing beyond the stratosphere due to expectations and trying to hold their valuations. Is there even any middle ground here, for eBay or anyone else?
Since I find what you stated to be very believable, the question becomes, can this plane (eBay) fly into space? Or, to be less metaphorical, can eBay successfully transform itself from the uber-garage sale into mega-etail? This probably boils down into two questions. Can eBay attract enough big retailers, and can eBay interest a sufficient number of the existing (and future) buyers in those retailers?
Personally, I'll have essentially zero interest in the new model. I don't care to buy from big etailers whose privacy policies and security I cannot trust -- and there's the fact I come to eBay for all the unique stuff, not the things I could go to a nearby mall and buy with cash. The only items I've bought from eBay that are currently in production originated with a small European company -- small peanuts as far as retail goes. All the rest of what I've bought are years, often decades out of production. Either way, 100% of eBay's value to me as a buyer has been for finding uncommon stuff, not what I can find offline with relative ease. If/when the day comes when I'm finding next to nothing of interest like that at eBay is the day I email eBay and tell them to disable my ID and remove my personal information -- and why.
Aside from my feelings, how many other buyers would yawn at the mass arrival of large retailers? How many came for the garage sale but won't stick around when the big ones drive their huge semis into the driveway, honking loudly?
The flip side of the question is obviously how many big retailers can eBay actually attract? Like someone already pointed out in this thread, eBay's infrastructure does not seem like the right one at all for seriously high-volume retailers.
As a comparison example, Microsoft operating systems and applications arguably have relatively poor security due to their origins in the "one person running separate applications on one PC" metaphor, and the need to maintain as much backwards compatibility for as long as possible. Of course, Microsoft has remained profitable despite this problem, but is eBay strong enough to afford problems transitioning a system from one metaphor to another?
It could be argued that both companies could (have) set up a separate unit to build a new system from the ground up, learning the best and worst of the old while maintaining the old for as long as made sense, though I realize that's idealistic and perhaps consistently impractical.
So can eBay honestly expect to "evolve" their existing system into something that will be sufficiently desirable to retailers, while still maintaining buyers' interest long enough to steer them towards retailers, gambling there are enough buyers that aren't solely interested in the "traditional" garage sale model? Has the limited initial retailing of late been successful on eBay so far? I haven't been paying much attention.
If too many existing buyers fail to buy into the retail model, and/or there aren't enough new buyers interested (if eBay winds up looking like it has the same stuff so many other etailers and portals have, why would more new buyers come to eBay as opposed to somewhere else? ), will eBay have enough to fall back on? Even if sellers are a dime a dozen to eBay, is there a point of no return in that regard, where so many sellers have left that eBay can't recover their "traditional" customers fast enough if they're needed after all -- or even that sellers are discouraged faster than new ones arrive, causing too many buyers to cease paying attention to eBay, before enough retailers are on board?
Is it just me, or does this seem like a delicate but explosive process, with very sensitive timing? Apparently, eBay considers a middle ground or a two-wing business to be insufficient. So, if all the speculation around here is on the mark, it seems eBay has painted a figurative sign on its outside, that says "Mega-Retail or Bust"
----
What's being done in the name of direct marketing nowadays is crazy.
The above are all just my opinions, except where I cite facts as such.
Oh, I am not dc9a320 anywhere except AW. Any others are not me.
Is eBay is changing from a world bazaar into a bizarre world?
[ edited by dc9a320 on Dec 19, 2000 09:58 AM ]
posted on December 19, 2000 10:44:11 AM
Look at the numbers. On one hand, you've got eBay's most popular seller. They sell their items in true auction format. Everything starts at a penny. I'd bet a LOT of buyers scour Jereth's auctions every day looking for those CDs that didn't get bids. This is a true profile of a successful eBay seller. This is eBay's top-rated seller we're talking about.
On the other hand, you've got a company like BMG. Everything about them goes against eBay's grain and rules. BMG requires users to sign a contract. They offer choices and require purchases through a catalog. They charge outrageous shipping fees ($4 to ship a one-penny item). All of that is actually prohibited by eBay. Now how could a seller like that possibly integrate into eBay's site? It's like putting a square peg in a round hole.
Another issue is "How quickly can eBay bring these changes about?" Because I believe within a year or two it will be obvious that eBay CAN'T realize 50% growth. Then they'll find themselves having exiled their best sellers to Yahoo, with no replacements. Just as eBay was the darling of Wall Street, it could quickly become the doormat.
posted on December 19, 2000 01:47:27 PM
The "unique" items and limited "collectables" are by definition why eBay will/has hit a plateau in the garage sale model. There are a limited number of antique X's and limited edition Y's. eBay and I'm sure many buyers would love a unlimited wholesale supply of "rare" widgets. But that's not going to happen, and if it did the collectable market would roll over and die.
There is also another challenge to eBay on the horizon. Napster like P2P applications can replace eBay's P2P sales model and do it for free. A credit card service like Paypal can produce P2P software that allows sellers to place their own sales site on their PC or free server space that is offered all over the Net. Using free server space will allow you not have your PC connected all the time for those without DSL or cable. Paypal can guarantee a secure transaction [ via charge backs for a seller that doesn't deliver as well as instant payment for the seller]. Paypal makes their money from transaction fees and there is no listing fees because no central entity maintains a dedicated server. This model is actually better than eBay's because seller and buyer have higher security against fraud. I think it is just a matter of time before Paypal offers just such a software fix.
With this threat, eBay can [or must ] parlay its buyer base to big retailers who will not or can not go to a P2P model as described above.
posted on December 21, 2000 08:07:08 PM
Here is the response I received from eBay re: our concerns about the 'Free CDs' banner ads. I offer it without comment. You can probably guess how Jay and I feel about this message.
<<Hello Marie,
Thank you for your email regarding the banner ads.
At first glance, the banner ads and links on our site might seem
unusual.
We believe that these types of ads and links will bring more customers
for your items. While eBay presents ads and links to other services,
these services are also presenting eBay ads and links on their sites.
This means more people clicking to eBay to view and to bid on your
items.
We also believe that these ads and links provide more variety and
understand that many of you will click through these ads and links to
check them out. These services provide items that are not necessarily
available on eBay and we wholeheartedly encourage you to shop around for
exactly what you need.
We are confident that our relationship with Link Exchange will benefit
our community through more bidding activity and more item variety.
Should you have any other questions or concerns please visit our help
pages located on our site for instant answers to most questions. You can
get to the help section by clicking on Help at the top of most eBay
pages.
posted on December 21, 2000 08:20:43 PM
I realize that this topic is wearying to some on AuctionWatch, but just to follow through and end for the evening, a visit to the BMG site provides NO links ANYWHERE to eBay auctions. I did find the following enlightening, though:
<<<<<Set Your Sites On Cash Payments
BMGmusicservice.com is the website of the world's largest music club. Here's your chance to earn $5 every time a visitor to your site becomes a new member of BMG Music Service.
How Do I Make Money?
Being a Partner is easy and it comes at no cost to you. We'll supply you with all kinds of banner ads in a variety of sizes and shapes that will link visitors from your site to our site.
You'll earn $1 each time a visitor to your site clicks through to our site and becomes a new member of BMG Music Service, and you'll earn an additional $4 when that new member pays for just the shipping and handling of his/her enrollment package. Read the Partner Agreement for complete details.
Let's Make Money Together
BMGmusicservice.com is one of the most heavily trafficked e-commerce sites on the Internet. Our unbeatable introductory offer of 12 CDs for the price of 1 and our daily discount specials place us among the favorites in music-related websites.
We've both got great websites. Let's join forces and sell beautiful music together. Click here to apply to the BMG Music Service Partner Program today. >>
posted on December 21, 2000 09:51:34 PM
Sha, right, I bet you fell all over yourself to sign up for the music service partner program, huh Marie? NOT. But even if you didn't, I guess Ebay did.
Count on Ebay to be ridiculous. What a bunch of Bull$#!+.
I'm very discouraged to see eBay's practice they have on a CD search. Your one cent CDs are one class auction and a big asset to eBay. For eBay to fail to notice that is indeed sad.
We believe that these types of ads and links will bring more customers for your items.
I'm sure with that train of thought eBay would find it acceptable for a mall owner to have people roaming around the shops in an effort to help customers.
"Pssst, hey I notice you are shopping for widgets, here's a phone number where you can buy widgets for via mail order"
I'm sure any merchant that found a mall owner stooping to such practices would become postal. Marie, I hope you'll include a link of this thread to eBay, with your reputation I feel they might take the time to see how their actions are being viewed.
posted on December 21, 2000 11:23:15 PM
From the sound of eBay's canned response, it sounds like targeted banner ads are the greatest thing since the telephone. The most distressing aspect of these banners is eBay's uncaring and cavalier attitude twoards their best seller. Obviously, there's no protection for any of us.
If it happened to me and I were in your position, I would move half my stock immediately to Yahoo (at $9.99) and then contact eBay upper management with some numbers.
Really I'm getting so fed up with eBay. Yahoo doesn't work for me because I can only list one identical auction at a time. (At eBay I can list up to 10.) And Yahoo's software categories are full of bootlegs. I'd love to find a good alternative.
[ edited by twinsoft on Dec 21, 2000 11:46 PM ]
posted on December 22, 2000 06:36:42 AM
My husband is a true believer in eBay, and is beside himself and discouraged by this recent banner campaign. As bad as it looks over at eBay, can you imagine being a seller over at half.com? At least Marie's CDs has got a little reputation to fall back on to maintain sales: the folks at half.com selling literally the identical items being sold off-site at BMG Direct there should be very very frightened.
He was up past midnight last night trying to figure it out, and he's developd a conspiracy theory. He simply can't believe that anyone with half a brain at eBay in a capacity of authority would let this type of banner run. It's like running a BarnesAndNoble.com banner on Amazon.com's website.
He thinks it might just be one guy within eBay, someone with the ability to work up these banner deals, who has arranged for these banners and is personally collecting the money for the banner referrals. He has no basis for this thinking other than common sense.
Does anyone here know how to 'read' that language in the URL when you click over to BMGDirect.com from eBay's banner? I know there's some sort of a cookie or someting that tells BMG where you came from, and will then, in turn, reimburse that site if you stay on BMG and buy something. Can the URL you click through give you a clue who's collecting the referral fee? I don't want to appear dumb here but I simply don't know.
I *DO* know that the local internet nerd here in Town has set up a little website for a charity that's chock full of links like the BMG link: the charity encourages it's supporters to click through to Amazon.com or BMG, for example, THROUGH their site so they collect a referral fee. It's really a cruddy cruddy business, and I don't understand why eBay would be involved with it.
posted on December 23, 2000 03:45:43 PM
I wasn't going to post to this thread, but curiously enough; I received a BMG Music Service mailer in my snail mail today. Now I have NEVER had any dealings with BMG in the past and this is the first time I have ever gotten anything from them. I wonder where they got my address from?
Ain't Life Grand...
posted on December 23, 2000 08:57:08 PM
Well, I'm willing to give Meg the benefit of the doubt and say that she's probably doing exactly what she needs to do in order to make eBay more profitable. And that, more than anything else, is what she was hired to do. She doesn't answer to the eBay users; she answers to the Board of Directors [who, in turn, answer to the stockholders].
It's just sad that making eBay a better place for the people who actually built it up in the first place [i.e., the individual sellers, as opposed to the professional retailers] doesn't enter into the equation anywhere. I mean, I'm sure she thinks it would be nice if the sellers were kept happy in the process, but it really is only a secondary consideration at best.
I've said it before, and I'll say it again -- the worst thing to happen to eBay was when it went public. The only people who benefited were those who were lucky enough to buy gobs of stock; for everyone else it has been an inexorable downward spiral.
On the bright side, I now have a new job and finally bought myself a Sony Mavica. Now all I have to do is decide if it's worth my time and effort to start selling on eBay again...
Regards,
Barry
---
The opinions expressed above are for comparison purposes only. Your mileage may vary....
posted on December 23, 2000 10:55:41 PM
Hey there, birdwatcher,
Better late than never. We told them it would happen, and here we are again.
Nobody cares until it affects them personally. That's the bottom line. Not until the day they see a banner competing with their own auctions will they open their eyes to what's happening. And by then it's always too late.
Twinsoft says my thread about this problem received only "modest response." I suspect it might have been taken more seriously had the original anti-banner crusader not shown up to defend eBay and to brush off or downplay our very real concerns. I see that he hasn't responded to this thread at all.
I've since adapted to the half.com problem, but I'm sure it will be only a matter of time till eBay throws another curve ball and maybe I won't be able to adapt to that one. It sucks having to do business with a longtime partner whom you suddenly realize is trying to cut you out of the picture. But as everyone keeps pointing out, our choice of alternatives is sorely limited.
