posted on January 27, 2001 09:51:02 PM new
I signed up with "ReliableMerchants.com," and it's working. My closing sales increased 8%
tonight, vs., my close last week. RM was the only new factor involved in [my] equation.
posted on January 27, 2001 10:32:06 PM new
There are currently 44 items with the rms logo listed on ebaY - by 8 unique sellers. Of those 8 sellers the logo is actually WORKING on the auctions of 3 of them. If I remember correctly, only one person had it on an auction closing today. Hmmmm Maybe they are not ebaY auctions? - Rosalinda
TAGnotes - daily email synopsis about the Online Auction Industry http://www.topica.com/lists/tagnotes
posted on January 27, 2001 10:51:41 PM new
Yup - no auctions ending tonight carrying the rms logo. And though completed search has been VERY glitchy lately, so maybe is just not working - not one single completed auction ever on ebaY with rms on it. -Rosalinda
TAGnotes - daily email synopsis about the Online Auction Industry http://www.topica.com/lists/tagnotes
posted on January 27, 2001 11:36:11 PM new
It seems to me that one would need more than one week to determine that sales have increased significantly as a result of signing up with a new service. For statistical significance one would need several weeks (at least) of data before and after the fact to determine any improvement. A seller would also have to take into account the items being sold, the amount of traffic on eBay during the weeks in question, the time of year (to avoid seasonal shopping trends) and probably a few other things that I haven't mentioned...
I read this thread and went back to read the previous thread related to ReliableMerchants.com. While the eBay feedback system is not perfect, I get nervous when I hear people talk about complex statistical analysis to determine a reliability rating...
But what do I know, I don't really consider myself to be a statistician. I've only got a masters degree in applied mathematics...
posted on January 28, 2001 01:07:32 AM new
Morgantown -- Congratulations! I am glad that your sales have increased!
Besides time, another significant factor which can be used to determine if the number '8%' is significant, is quantity.
To illustrate: If you sold 13 items this week, and your sales increased by 8%, then this would just be a single extra sale - perhaps a fluke.
If you sold 25 items this week, and your sales increased by 8%, then this would amount to two extra sales - also perhaps a fluke, but not as common of a fluke.
If you sold 200 items this week, and your sales increased by 8%, then you would have gotten 16 extra sales in a week!
As you see, the quantity of total items sold is also a critical factor in determining the significance of your 8% increase in sales, with the RM logo.
If you provide me with the number of items sold this week, and the number of items you usually sell per week, then I can set up an equation to determine if the increase was due in part to the RM seal, or whether it was a fluke. If the moderator won't object, I'll post the equation on this board.
--------------
As a side issue: When one does an item description search for "ReliableMerchants", auctions with the RM seal won't display, because there is no text in the auction mentioning 'ReliableMerchants'. There is only a graphic seal, immune to text searches.
This is why one will find few auctions with the RM seal through a search.
This is also why mistaken HTML codes are apparent in the auctions in the instance where a search does yield results with the RM seal -- Remember, The eBay search engine picks up only the auctions with the TEXT 'reliablemerchants': Only people who misenter the HTML code as text will have the word 'reliablemerchants' in their auctions. And only the auctions of these people, will display in the search.
In all probability, there are hundreds of auctions with the RM honesty seal. However, the item description search is not equipped to search for GIFs.
Only auctions with HTML flaws will appear.
[ edited by stevenebin on Jan 28, 2001 01:16 AM ]
posted on January 28, 2001 03:27:58 AM new
Laugh! Well, my sales were up. However, there were lots of variables at play. Perhaps I got over excited about that icon and the corresponding 100+ score.
I'll keep you posted and let you know if it continues to make a diff...
posted on January 28, 2001 03:57:11 AM new
A good test, should someone want do it would be to set up two IDs, selling same items, same listing text. In theory, both should do equally well. Then when feedback numbers reach a certain level, do the reliable-merchant thing on one ID.
You don't have enough data to prove that your current rise is due to R-M. And, if your sales were down by the same percentage next week, would that indicate that R-M causes a decrease in sales?
posted on January 28, 2001 04:23:38 AM new
For a very lenghty discussion on ReliableMerchants.com read this thread:
http://www.auctionwatch.com/mesg/read.html?num=2&thread=321763&id=321763
Very enlightenig!!!
heikejohn everywhere else!
posted on January 28, 2001 06:18:33 AM new
GEE, that's awfully interesting, Morgantown. What's your eBay Userid so we can check on this wonderful 8% increase success you claim you have this week (as if EVEN IF you HAVE had it as you say, the 8% can be reasonably attributed to Stevie's little um &*%#$*%&#).
A search of your email address yields NO SUCH USER at eBay.
posted on January 28, 2001 06:39:03 AM new
"RM was the only new factor involved in [my] equation"
Your sales increase should have been much higher than 8%. You should also see an increase next week. Yahoo began charging a listing fee and their listings drop by over 50% during the last week. Needless to say, this has resulted in an increase in both seller and buyer activity on Ebay. We had one of the best weeks in almost a year, and had less auctions running than we normally do. Most of our items receive one bid per two times they are listed. Last week, most got 4 to 5 bids and were sold at our highest prices ever. (those that were not BIN'd) We also noticed the highest percentage of 0 feedback/new user bids in the three years we have been on Ebay. My guess is that these new users came over from Yahoo, or were possibly a result of Ebay's TV ad campaign. I seem to remember Ebay reporting an increase in traffic as a result to the TV commercials. Hopefully this trend will continue, as I plan to go on a listing spree starting tonight.
Let me put something out there for you to chew on. When anyone answers posts like Morgantown's or Little Stevie's with a logical and completely correct post, they are giving the poster credence that he/she may or may not deserve. If people like Morgantown or Stevie
want to come here and make statements, let them back them up with DOCUMENTATION. Per Rosalinda's numbers, Morgantown's claim cannot be backed up (even though what you said about the absurdity of anyone making a claim about a one-time 8% increase in week-to-week sales being a result of the one factor they are claiming it to be the result of is, well, I would get suspended from posting if I used the adjective I want to use). Morgantown's eBay auctions might have the Reliable Logo, and his/her sales MIGHT have increased 8% in one week, BUT I WANT TO SEE FACTS, not just what could be more testimonials from people that may have an agenda. NO Morgantown exists on eBay, neither does anyone with the email addy that he/she registered for AuctionWatch with. We all know that there may be many reasons for this, but if he/she is on the level, let her/him provide the documentation.
posted on January 28, 2001 07:18:47 AM new
And as for THIS piece of tripe statement-
<<<If you provide me with the number of items sold this week, and the number of items you usually sell per week, then I can set up an equation to determine if the increase was due in part to the RM seal, or whether it was a fluke. If the moderator won't object, I'll post the equation on this board.>>>
The HECK anyone can. "Fluke"? "Was due in part to?" Any statistical analysis is only as valid as the parameters used to analyze. The Weather. Yahoo's new fees. The type of items week over week. eBay's downtime. ETC. ad INFINITUM. ALSO, ANY knowledge of statistics will tell ANYONE that SAMPLE SIZE is a HUGE determinant of the validity of an analysis. ANY "equation" using ONLY one week's data and comparing it with previous weekly sales IS STATISTICALLY INVALID. There is NO "equation" that can "determine" if the increase was due "in part" to the RM seal. None. Zilch. Nada. There may be some analyses of one week's data that MAY LEAD ONE TO BELIEVE AT SOME STATISTICAL CONFIDENCE LEVEL that the increase MIGHT have been due to it, but NO equation that can "DETERMINE" it.
WHOOPS, here I go despite what I said to MrJim, giving credence to something that doesn't make sense by actually responding to it.
posted on January 28, 2001 07:23:41 AM new
Remember to factor in "cabin fever". Every year at this time people in colder climates snuggle indoors and start bidding.
posted on January 28, 2001 09:10:56 AM new
Well, my sales increased significantly this week over last week too WITHOUT RM! I'm so sure you can gauge a result from one week's performance! NOT!
posted on January 28, 2001 01:35:10 PM new
steveebin - you can make all the CLAIMS you want, but none of them are proof. You said - QUOTE - As a side issue: When one does an item description search for "ReliableMerchants", auctions with the RM seal won't display, because there is no text in the auction mentioning 'ReliableMerchants'. There is only a graphic seal, immune to text searches.
Now this MAY be true, but how come three of the sellers that show up HAVE the icon showing?
Until you can provide any PROOF to the contrary, everything you say is suspect.
In addition, ask yourself - Why does EVERY third party service provider provide text in addition to their logo link? you should ponder that question a bit.
-Rosalinda
TAGnotes - daily email synopsis about the Online Auction Industry http://www.topica.com/lists/tagnotes
posted on January 28, 2001 01:46:08 PM new
And if you didn't undrestand Rosalinda's point, Stevie, I'll expand on it- there are 2 and only 2 reasons that you would use HTML which is "immune" to text searches (it can be MADE NON-immune to text searches by adding searchable text characters before or after)- either you didn't have the FORESIGHT or the umm engineering/software TALENT to
formulate a logo which would allow users to search for other users with the Relaible "seal of approval" on their auctions (Why? since it would seem obvious that if the seal was of ANY value, you'd WANT people to be able to search for sellers using it), OR you and your cadre made a conscious decision to make it immune to eBay search such as it is now, in which case, anyone with any sense would ask the same question Rosalinda did- WHY? I have my own ideas about that...
posted on January 28, 2001 03:31:52 PM new
Everyone seems to be putting a lot of thought into why the Reliable Merchant seal did not help her sales as stated. My question is can anyone say how it would have hurt the sales and final prices. If not then more power to someone who would like to use it.
Now I know someone is going to say that the talk is because of the statement about incresed sales. Even if it did not contribute to the sales I still do not understand why people sound so bias against the seal. At this time I believe it is free to use and if someone is more comfortable having it displayed then great for them.
If you feel you have better days at the office when you wear red then why not wear red.
posted on January 28, 2001 04:37:53 PM new
"If you feel you have better days at the office when you wear red then why not wear red."
It's not that simple.
This is not just some guy handing out free red t-shirts- which any of us is free to accept and wear as we choose. These t-shirts say something.
The better analogy is this. A hypothetical. You're a salesman at a car dealership. A very good salesman, an honest one who values his customers and has developed a significant positive reputation within the company. You work on commission.
There's another salesman, who is a fairly new and somewhat marginal salesman, and who sometimes plays fast and loose with dealership policy, and consumer law, and the truth. Not a crook, really, but he just believes that the ends justify the means, and that anything goes as long as the sale is made. Let's say he's been suspended at least once by the dealership for violating policy. He got his salesman's license by falsifying the application, because he didn't meet the minimum qualifications to be licensed to sell cars. Let's call him salesman R.
One day, salesman R takes it upon himself to start a program whereby he segregates his peers into two groups: sellers with integrity and sellers without integrity. And he offers red t-shirts to those that pass the test of his making. The t-shirts have the store name, to lend an air of credibility, and say: "I'm more honest than the salesmen without red t-shirts." Salesman R wears the first red "integrity" t-shirt.
He started selling the t-shirts for $40, but when few bought them, he started giving them away for a limited time "evaluation."
When other salesmen started questioning the practice, and R's credibility, questions were brushed off with an air of indifference, big words, and talk of 'confidence levels' and mathematic rubrics.
So- should the honest salesmen be concerned about this gambit? Or just sign up with salesman R and wear the red t-shirts.
posted on January 28, 2001 05:16:03 PM new
<One day, salesman R takes it upon himself to start a program whereby he segregates his peers into two groups: sellers with integrity and sellers without integrity. And he offers red t-shirts to those that pass the test of his making. The t-shirts have the store name, to lend an air of credibility, and say: "I'm more honest than the salesmen without red t-shirts.">
Salesman R does not segregate his peers into two groups. Salesman R does not advertise those who purchase his car as "more honest than the salesman without the t-shirts". If Salesman R did label them as such, then those who don't wear the t-shirt aren't honest, and don't qualify for the service. Following your example, nobody would ever be able to sign-up for salesman R’s t-shirts, because prior to signing up they hadn’t worn the t-shirt and weren’t honest.
To crystalize:
In your example RM separates eBay user's into two groups. We do not! RM simply labels some people.
If the absence of labeling the other people, constitutes a group which might be called 'unlabeled', then there are two groups of PayPal people on eBay; Those who accept PayPal and those who don't. There are two groups of Powerseller people on eBay; Those who are a Powerseller, and those who aren't. The users of your ‘unlabeled’ group choose not to display the Powerseller logo in their auctions. Does this mean that they couldn't qualify as a powerseller?
Similarly, some choose not to wear 'Salesman' R's t-shirt, does this mean they "aren't honest and don't qualify for the service", or that don't use the service.
Further, some choose not to display the RM seal -- Does this mean that they couldn't pass the evaluation? Does it mean that they are not honest?
As I alluded previously, displaying the RM logo simply CONVEYS elements of a user’s feedback profile, and the fact the merchant passed the RM evaluation. (given the list of revisions which will appear on the site available in the thread ‘reliablemerchants.com’).
I don’t understand how you infer that the people with the RM logo are “more honest than the salesman without the t-shirt”. Perhaps you can shed some brilliant light. (Given list of revisions)
There are other comments in your post, but let’s tackle one at a time.
posted on January 28, 2001 05:27:05 PM new
Hello again Steven:
My red t-shirt example was a hypothetical- not a literal statement of RM's circumstance.
But I think you ARE claiming to separate the honest sellers from the dishonest (not an unworthy goal, actually, but one I don't believe you are meeting with your current program).
You say:
"In your example RM separates eBay user's into two groups. We do not!"
You do. Or at least you claim to. From your site (bolding mine):
******
The company will act as a Good Housekeeping (OR) for the auction world, labeling honest merchants as trustworthy, while disabling dishonest merchants from using its service.
"The idea," explains Steven Ebin the 17-year-old COO and founder, "is to show all eBay bidders which merchants are trustworthy. Doing so will increase sales for these reliable merchants, and concurrently decrease scams by dishonest merchants." ReliableMerchants plans on separating the honest merchants from the dishonest by extrapolating data from their feedback ratings using a complex algorithm.
*******
posted on January 28, 2001 05:29:22 PM new
An even better analogy.
I'm an umm psychic and I can umm contact the dead for a fee. HOWEVER, noone believes me,
so I've had to knock over liquor stores for the past year to eat. Then some entrepeneur whom I just barely beat to the site of my last robbery that I became friendly with after the crime and I get to talking, and we come up with an idea. We start a company called ESP International that licenses psychics, and checks their umm credentials by having them fill out an online application which asks them for a credit card number, and of course also asks the key question, "What number am I thinking of?" If the applicant gives the entrepeneur the credit card number and correctly guesses the number that is being thought of, they become 100% Registered Psychics who can advertise themselves as "real" psychics both online and off, and they get both a t-shirt and a big sign saying "The end is just the beginning. 1-800-wakethedead. REGISTERED PSYCHIC" COMPLETELY FREE OF CHARGE. All credit card numbers given to us are umm placed in an umm completely-secure Web database impervious to hackers or dastardly Web criminals. We of course ask for credit card numbers ONLY to assure ourselves and consequently the public who uses the services of psychics that the person applying is who he/she says he/she is, and we would NEVER disclose that information to ANY third party, despite the fact that on Page 546 of our User Agreement it says we can. And that charge on the card is just an AUTHORIZATION, not a real fee, like we said, our services are COMPLETELY free, now and forever.
Now the dilemna. When you're ready to contact the dear departed, do you use a psychic with our t-shirt or one with a simple huge full-page ad in the Yellow Pages?
