posted on November 5, 2002 07:34:38 PM
Ive given this some thought and have come to the opinion that ebay is in full swing decline - Im watching for the Death roll and the crash that follows. Perhaps they can keep it on the track but I doubt it. Perhaps a good sized "attitude adjustment" will right things again. Its going to be quite a show whatever happens.
"Just Thinkin out loud"
posted on November 5, 2002 07:46:14 PM
Yeah, poor old eBay's on its dead bed and is a shadow of its former self. Someday the buyers are going to realize that, maybe tomorrow, or the day after tomorrow, or the day after the day after tomorrow, or...
posted on November 5, 2002 10:24:44 PM
I think the auctions are in decline, in a way. The number of bids per auctions must be down and the sell through rate too. The fixed priced items must be getting stronger and stronger. IMO, ebay wants to be an online Walmart and not a flea market/auction.
posted on November 5, 2002 10:32:26 PM
tooltimes, I think that you may be partially right. I still think they won't desert their roots. There maybe a spinoff of the original ebay into something closely related to WalMart online. Just remember as of now eBay has never sold anything but an idea. They have no inventory, no accts receivable, except us & we have given them carte blanche to a credit card. What could be better?
posted on November 5, 2002 10:57:54 PM
An online Walmart without an inventory but instead via their beloved mega sellers. What a financial coup. Also an online Walmart that sells cars and real estate in every-increasing numbers.
Merchandise broker is what ebay should really be named.
posted on November 6, 2002 12:07:21 AM
Your business model must evolve, otherwise you will be irrelevant. I started my first online business in 1995, and my business model has changed with the times. Things move more swiftly online. If I had the same business model that I started out with, I would be out of business!
posted on November 6, 2002 04:50:53 AM
eBay will continue to go through leveling periods and changes, some will work and others won't. Decline in bids may come from things such as a glut of like items listed for sale, Pricing that is no longer competetive with local retail outlets, buyers being scammed and cheated by sellers, higher shipping charges, weak economy, and so on. I made a fairly decent part-time income the first couple years on ebay by buying stuff on line and reselling it. I still do ok, although the oportunities are fewer.
posted on November 6, 2002 08:56:07 AM
Worldcom and Enron posted record earnings and high stock prices also.....
.................................................
I live in my own little world, but it is Okay...They know me here.
posted on November 6, 2002 09:09:06 AM
Good points all - Heres my line of thought - Ebay grew quite a sucessful business by providing a Win Win situation between small business sellers,individuals and themselves. People are attracted for the deals and the opportunity to sell and promote their business. They changed the game by going public - now the only thing that counts is getting bigger and increasing profits. The Win win part is not a focus anymore - instead they have shifted their focus into building a catalog company of sorts to sell closeouts from Disney ,IBM, Walmart, Sears etc. I could be wrong but I think the large user base at ebay will start to evaporate because of the management focus on Big corp venders instead of us. I hope Im way off the mark and the Auctions and buy it now sales take off again.
posted on November 6, 2002 09:21:32 AM
Companies will always cater to business that brings in more money. I have clients who pay $10 a month, and clients who pay $300 a month. While I like to believe I provide good customer service to all my clients, if my $10 client and my $300 client made conflicting requests (and this has happened) how do you think this would be resolved. I can afford to lose the $10 client, but $300 clients are certainly difficult to replace.
While there certainly is a push to get more corporate business on ebay, there are a lot of categories out there that there simply will be no large corporate competition. If you are selling clothes, and now Sears and JC Penney are online competing with you, maybe you just need to change your product. There are lots of products that can be sold. Again, adapt to change, or be left on the side of the road...
posted on November 6, 2002 10:04:50 AM
Ebay's model is constantly changing and most of the sellers adapt to the changes. The changes usually are hard to make and are usually less profitable to the sellers. Many sellers either give up completely or warehouse their wares on the low traffic, almost-free auction sites and hope for an occasional sale here and there.
The changes do appear to be Darwinian in that the strongest ( or cleverest and most intelligent ) tend to survive the changes
posted on November 6, 2002 10:07:31 AM
Its true that anyone would rather have $300 that $30 given its a lawful exchange. I just think that by focusing on the big dollar companies, they may have changed the dynamic without knowing it. The big companies are there only because so many buyers are active - The buyers may not want another place to buy from Sears and JC Pennys and may just move on - when the user base starts dropping the big corporate sellers will loose interest too. Then what happens. People are on ebay for the vast variety of items to buy and sell when the choice is narrowed to shop closeouts from chainstores its time to reinvest the 401k.
posted on November 6, 2002 10:57:17 AM
I talked to probably 25 dealers this Monday at a flea market. All were selling 10 - 100 items a week on eBay 2 years ago. Now aprox. 15 no longer sell or buy on eBay. Only 2 sell as much as they did 2 years ago and a few of us buy a little more than we use to. I went from 60-70 auctions a week down to 10-20.
Most all of these people sell antiques or collectibles. I also noticed at the flea markets I don't hear much talk about eBay. It use to be story after story about how much an item sold for and how great eBay is.
I see a big decline in eBay but I only deal in tools, antiques, and collectibles.
posted on November 6, 2002 11:07:22 AM
I deal in collectibles, antiques, video games, movies, etc. I go to auctions, estate sales, garage sales. My business on ebay this past year is way up. I always hear people talking about ebay.
My point is that a lot more data is needed to make a general prediction, and I would be interested in finding this information out. Asking 25 people at a flea market and making a prediction about that is the same to me as going to UC Berkeley, surveying 25 students about their political beliefs, and predicting that the Republican party is in decline...
posted on November 6, 2002 11:38:00 AM
After a few months of slow sales I had to try a new approach..I sell mainly antiques and collectibles, and realized there is just too much stuff being listed..too much of the same old thing (literally) anyway. I became a trading assistant..and it has been great! No one could be more surprised than I am. I take only very high end antiques, I take a nice commission plus the consignor pays all fees.
I have the item in my possession from beginning to end (I ship).
What's good about it is that I don't have to put any money out for inventory. AND I still sell my own things too. I've done this for 4 weeks. I take on a new consignor every week, I am up to 4 and they have all been delighted with the process.
I grossed over $2500.00 in sales last week alone for 12 consigned pieces, which is a record for me. I am not bragging, I'm trying to spread a little inspiration. I agree with everyone who has said you have to change your strategy, after all was'nt it change that brought you to ebay to sell in the first place?
BY THE WAY DOES ANYONE HAVE A GENERAL IDEA OF WHAT PERCENTAGE THEY PAY IN COMBINED FEES :EBay/AW/P.P? WOW WHAT A GREAT QUESTION!!!! IMISSJACKSWEBB! ???
posted on November 6, 2002 11:41:57 AM
eBay has grown and evolved and successful sellers have done the same...
More sellers, more products, more options, more exposure. more competition. These, any many other, improvements and excesses are what have changed eBay. And for the better! Sellers are now part of a much larger business than they were in the past. These realities have changed the way sellers have had to sell and those who have been unwilling or unable to change have been the ones most negatively effected.
Our eBay business has grown by at least 100% each year and we've been selling since 1998. This year is no exception. The manner in which we run our business and market our products on eBay has changed considerably over the years. In fact, we adjust our selling methods on a week by week basis. The days of throwing up product on eBay and getting a 100% sell through rate are gone. Sellers aere now forced to target market, advertise and use many other tools to reach their customers. The key is to use the technologies available to your selling advantage. By staying up with product technologies, you can maintain an edge over your competitors and more successfully reach your buying audience. No longer can you just throw up a simple text listing and expect it to automatically sell.
Let's face it, selling online is a business and it needs to be treated as such. Many of us are fighting over the same bidder's dollars, so ask yourself: "Am I really working hard to insure that I am a step ahead of my competition?" If you can reply yes to this question, you are probably continuing to do well selling on eBay. If you have to answer "I'm not sure or no", you now know why things aren't as good as it used to be.
What you put in is what you take out. It's an old saying, but it is commonly on target.
posted on November 6, 2002 12:26:16 PM
There are forces at work against sellers at eBay that simply will not and can not be overcome by the majority of sellers.
There are three types of competition at play on eBay. First is product competiton, second is competition for the buyer's disposable income, and third is competition for eyeballs. All of these forces have been severly magnified against the seller by the huge number of listings. Most sellers are simply going to fail given this scenario regardless of their efforts, except one, and that is to simply outlast your competitors.
The next challenge is the economy. For every person that is laid off their job, it probably drives 3 buyers out of the market- those being the one that actually got laid off and two others that fear being laid off. eBay is not now and never has been immune from macro economic forces. On top of increased competition, we also have fewer buyers.
Walmart and nearly all other retailers have announced that their sales are going down, and the xmas season is assumed to be flat at best. There is absolutely no reason to think that sales on eBay will be any better than the retailers.
Also do not confuse the economic health of the sellers on eBay with the economic health of the corporation eBay, they are two very different entities. It would be akin to comparing the economic well being of a bankrupt company to the company that is liquidating the bankrupt company.
posted on November 6, 2002 01:10:12 PM
When the economy is bad, people turn to off-price product. They also are more likely to purchase from off-price retailers. eBay is one of the largest marketplaces for these types of goods, so there's no reason for doom and gloom forcasting.
Internet holiday sales are expected to far exceed numbers recorded in the past. It continues to grown by large margin each year. Internet retailers are replacing sales from the Walmarts of the world and this trend is not likely to stop. It will only continue. Internet consumers are aware of the pricing, time and convenience considerations of buying online.
Regardless of economic downturn and the state of our present economy, the holidays are on their way. People will continue to purchase gifts and other luxury items and more and more of these goods will be sold online by retailers like us.
Here's to a happy and prosperous upcoming selling season. I for one know that business will be brisk and our retailing activity strong.
posted on November 6, 2002 01:45:22 PM
Wow! Great thread with many divergent views on ebay selling. The value of this AW forum is really enhanced with threads like this.
I suppopse only time will tell as who is right and who is wrong.
posted on November 6, 2002 02:20:09 PM
OK, my 2 cents worth. I sell pottery, glass and china mainly. I've noticed that there are more items like mine being listed, which tends to bring the price down some. However, a hard to find item sells for more than I could get at my mall spot. My mall sales and those of other dealers that I spoke to are in a steep nosedive. I blame economic and security fears for the general downturn in sales activity.
Despite the high cost of living, it remains popular
posted on November 6, 2002 02:44:03 PM
ahc3,
I was not making a prediction!! That is what I see as in my opinion.
I think the reason for the difference in opinions is simple. I started selling 5 years ago on eBay and my opinion is based on what it was then and now. Night and day to me. I was selling an everyday wood plane for $75.00 - $85.00 That same plane today will bring under $20.00 In my opinion that is a decline. I still sold $2,500.00 on eBay last month but that is down from $5,000.00 a month I was doing 4 years ago.
That doesn't mean that eBay is going to close it means prices for what I sell are way down. It also means I will not sell those planes on eBay because I can get more for them at flea markets or shows.
You're kidding, right? Have you ever studied statistics? Going around and asking just 25 people is NOT a scientifically valid approach. Not only do you need a lot more of a sample size, you need to do it a lot more randomly than having everyone in the same location. It's a good way to get an opinion of people, but it is not a valid approach to a scientific survey...
[ edited by ahc3 on Nov 6, 2002 05:15 PM ]
posted on November 6, 2002 05:17:06 PM
Hope I didn't miss something earlier in this very interesting thread that pointed out the link below. There's a very interesting article in the "Fortune Small Business" Nov 2002 issue that addresses just about everything you're bringing up here. Great article, great magazine.
posted on November 6, 2002 05:25:12 PM
ahc3....we're getting off the point here, but I have studied statistics. Have you? I've taken 6 courses at the university level, and 2 at masters level. I could go into long detail about why under these circumstances asking 25 like dealers at a flea market is valid, but most find statistics boring...so I'll spare the masses. In brief though, realize that 1000 people speak a valid random sample for 250,000,000 in most national polls, like the Nielsen TV ratings. Again, in brief, it's scientifically correct to say that 25 dealers in antique tools can be a valid sample for the say 1000 Ebay dealers in antique tools. At least to the second deviation from the norm
posted on November 6, 2002 05:45:11 PM
I haven't taken 8 statistics classes during my undergrad and graduate school days but I do understand what is a valid and invalid survey, and it is a LOT more than just the number of people selected. You can't choose 25 people to ask and call it valid. You can use 25 if it is a random sample, but we don't know this is random. Maybe all 25 people were selling antique chairs, and that market has crashed on ebay.
You say yourself that it CAN be, but let's be clear, this one isn't...
