posted on November 6, 2002 06:03:06 PM
inot asked about combined percentage of sale paid to ebay/aw/pp. I did the math before the latest price increases and came up with these general figures, without paypal factored in.
fv=$ 1, 46% paid to ebay/aw
=$ 5, 14%
=$ 10, 10%
=$ 40, 9%
=$100, 8%
=$500, 5%
I'm sure the current fee structures raise the numbers by at least a point.
-Rob
posted on November 6, 2002 06:13:08 PM
ahc3...you're right. That is why I said CAN. There is a problem with all 25 being in the same location, and certainly if they were all sellers of antique chairs this would not be valid. I can only base my opinion on the facts toolhound presented, and 25 antique tool dealers is sufficient and valid in this situation. If there were 1000 sellers of antique tools, then a truly scientifically random survey as to geography, product, age, time, etc. of only 14 would suffice. So there was some leeway as toolhound did survey 25. And apart from that, I've come to the roughly the same conclusions as toolhound found. 50-60% less sellers. 40-50% lower prices. Ebay is in decline, for the small seller. As others have wisely said, constant adaptation is vital for continued similar success. Most don't have time to do the research needed. Those that have the time and the brains will do fine.
posted on November 6, 2002 06:20:01 PM
"Those that have the time and the brains" are looking for other channels to sell through according to the Forbes article.
posted on November 6, 2002 06:35:09 PM
Moving away from statistics for a moment. For me Ebay has been great in the last several months. I sell rare books and my problem is not selling them, its more not being able to find enough stock. What I put up for auction goes always. I just wish I could always find more and more books.
posted on November 6, 2002 07:14:34 PM
Having experience, knowledge and connections within your business can get you into doors that others are unable to open. I can buy brand name current sunglasses at pennies on the dollar. Others cannot. It is this advantage that allows us to succeed within our market niche. Many other online sellers have other unique situations that give them advantages in the business niche they serve. Rare books are a good example. There are many who know the ins and outs of this business and they are able to obtain such inventory much easier than others. Those who have this advantage are the successful people within this industry. This principal can be applied to every business everywhere. It's universal.
Online sales are going up. Whether or not you choose to enjoy this ride is up to you. It is how you run your business and the knowledge you apply that will determine your future.
Sure, the above is general, but it has been my experience that those who are successful are successful in whatever they do. They're winners who know how to win. They don't use excuses, but instead take action and they certainly don't take no for an answer. And they also learn and adjust along the way.
Why don't you join me on top? I'll save you a seat.
posted on November 6, 2002 07:56:10 PM
"Most don't have time to do the research needed. Those that have the time and the brains will do fine."
I don't do research - perhaps I should. But I do look at the bottom line. Which is simply gross minus all costs. And over the past three years I have made good money - about the same each year, but I am learning what sells and what doesn't, so this should improve.
I do see that more and more items get fewer bids than in past years. Many get only one bid. But since I am holding my own, I guess I am improving. And I expect to do better next year.
It's a learning experience. And interesting. And usually it's fun. What more can I ask?
posted on November 6, 2002 07:57:02 PM
Computerboy- the "tips" you provide are such that the more people are successful with them, the less effective they are.
If everyone had an "connections" the connections would be worthless.
The equation is the same as in all selling situations- 20% usually end up with over 80% of the market. Not because they are smarter, harder workers, or have "connections, but because that is all the "success" the market can produce.
"Why don't you join me on top? I'll save you a seat." is the cattle call for suckers in multi-level marketing.
posted on November 6, 2002 08:11:22 PM
I can admire a positive outlook - One surely needs it to get anywhere in business these days. CB I know the kind of numbers you turn on the bay and I enjoy seeing anyone build what you have. Im still out there in the trenches hustling. There are soooo many ways to spin this that its almost bad to bring it up.We just dont have enough info about ebays gameplan for our future - you can only look at their actions and predict where they are going from them- You make a game plan from what you see happening around you. There is still lots of money to be made but Mabe the "Ebay Decline" is not a decline at all but an intentional narrowing of the seller base to more profitable enterprises " similar to what banks and credit card companys did a few years back. Perhaps that might be a good thing or a bad thing depending on how you plan.
Im going back to my cave now
posted on November 6, 2002 08:26:49 PM
Tell you what, Readmond, this "sucker" has been successful by applying the principles I mention in these postings. It is certainly not multi-level marketing, but instructions on how to succeed in business. It works for life in general, as well.
Be careful. Pessimism is infectious. Most people will be faced with plenty of reasons to want to quit what they are doing in their business careers. They don't need additiona encouragment to make the wrong decision. Those who choose to battle this adversity will be the ones that succeed.
If this online selling game is too tough for you, why don't you just quit, instead of encouraging others to do so. It is obvious that you think that the sky is falling on this business, so you best get out before you get crushed.
I say this online game is still in its infancy and that there will be even more money to make in the future. It may be with eBay or without them, but nonetheless it will be around. I'll keep my eyes open and will do what is necessary to make it work and will never keep all my internet eggs in the same basket.
posted on November 6, 2002 08:37:03 PM
Ive given this some thought and have come to the opinion that ebay is in full swing decline - Im watching for the Death roll and the crash that follows. Perhaps they can keep it on the track but I doubt it. Perhaps a good sized "attitude adjustment" will right things again. Its going to be quite a show whatever happens.
"Just Thinkin out loud"
As former President Ronald Reagen would say, "It's another gloom and doom prediction".
posted on November 7, 2002 01:42:45 AM
"Perhaps we are laboring under different definitions of "success"
I think Reamond is right what I am happy making on eBay and what another seller is happy making can be a big difference. I sold 3 days at flea markets this week and took in $2,100.00 which was to me fair but not great. Another dealer that I know did the same 3 markets and sold $500.00 and was very happy. The same is true with eBay I was happy taking in $5,000.00 per month on eBay and now that I am doing $2,500.00 I am not that happy with eBay.
I work hard 7 days a week and travel to buy and sell so I expect to make good money if I was not putting in the effort I would not expect to make it. I am headed out this morning 125 miles to an antique engine show in Avon Park,Florida to try and buy some antique tools.
posted on November 7, 2002 02:03:47 AM
Going off on another tangent, I wonder what will happen to full time dealers when the common joe starts dealing as a hobby on thier time off? For instance, I don't know much about pottery, glass, toys, etc. But, from my SHORT six weeks at Ebay, I have learned a great deal. I now know about Madame Alexander dolls, Sasha dolls, LLadros, Baccarat, Lionel trains, antique american kitchenwares, etc etc etc. Newfound information like this, along with the things that I already knew were valuable, and I could really cut into the income of a serious seller if i made it to the garage sale or thrift store before they did. This week, I found a Zojirushi breadmaker, a foodsaver vacuum sealer, a still in package USB floppy drive, 3 pairs of really expensive birkenstock shoes slightly used (not sandals). If I weren't keeping these items, I'd sell them, and make around 500$. So, that was items someone else did not get. If they were sellers, I would have taken 500$ dollars from them! Yes, it's true, changing your business model, and staying ahead of changes is so important. I really wish I could find one item to sell on ebay, but for the life of me, everytime I think of something, I see 893 of the exact same items up for bid. I really don't understand how people actually make a living off ebay!
posted on November 7, 2002 05:39:03 AM
Random Thoughts:
eBay's Decline or Growth is going to be determined by the number of BUYERS looking to go to eBay to find a deal on something. If you go to a Flea Market and 15 out of the 25 sellers you talk to no longer find eBay attractive, it doesn't neccessarily indicate an eBay decline, it could indicate a market contraction in terms of the # of sellers who are able to operate profitably, or could indicate that it's no longer as simple as breathing to make money on eBay and those guys couldn't hack it.
The fact that eBay is always blamed by some for the decline in sales, indicates that there are a lot of sellers who are/were on eBay without a lick of Business Sense. Instead of looking internally to themselves to find a way to survive, they just shift blame elsewhere -- again, market contraction in terms of the # of sellers operation (Something I honestly welcome) has nothing to do with eBay being in Decline, just that the wanna be's are being weeded out.
People talk about eBay "going corporate" as causing a decline -- which makes sense if you're myopic and think that the seller's drive eBay's growth. Problem is, BUYERS drive eBay, because the presence of BUYERS drives sellers to the site and drives the growth of the businesses of various sellers.
If Sears, JC Penny, Sony, Harman/Kardon, et al -- start selling on eBay, Buyers are going to buy from them, sinply because they have goods that people want. eBay trying to attract those companies may push some sellers off, and so what if it does? If it brings Buyers to the site, the remaining and clever sellers who find a way to benefit.
If we're going to discuss eBay's growth, decline or impending doom -- we need to discuss it in terms of it becoming more or less attractive as marketplace for BUYERS, as well as look at it within the context of current economic conditions -- not how we as seller's feel with respect to eBay becoming too corporate.
Frankly, I don't mind if seller's start leaving eBay, in fact, I welcome it. The fewer people I have listing identical products as me for minimum bids that are under cost -- and having the auction close under cost the better. The fewer people glutting the site with poor product descriptions, poor service and other forms of Business idiocy the better.
Anyway, as long as Buyers want to buy on eBay and more importantly, as long as the # of people buying (or the amount they spend) increases, eBay won't decline. The # of sellers will decline, but as long as the # of Buyers don't, eBay will be fine.
posted on November 7, 2002 07:19:43 AM
Its all Apples and Oranges - Ebay makes their sales on fees that sellers pay. Large companys work on thin margins small sellers cant - (well could but would have to list much more volume)
Ebay has much more room for fees with a large seller because the companys are tickeled pink to get 10% more for something that would be liquidated for pennys -win/win for large guy -win/lose for the average seller. There are conflicting interests at every level in this situation. I firmly believe in speaking up loudly when the situation requires it. Yes you can keep quiet and change your business week to week to try and get in sync with every whim of the ebay management board. Ebay is a business partner to every seller who registers to sell no-matter how small or large. They post guidlines about what can be sold and how and in what fashion you can promote yourself. There is A Responsibility on ebays part to maintain a stable platform for its sellers. They change day to day sometimes. ITs a tacky way to treat customers and all who sell need to speak up and call em on it.
If your catagory of inventory is left alone then there is not much to worry about.
Suppose Monday morning you come in and find that all your computer items have been moved to a brand new catagory that was just created and by the way it may take several days for everything to index properly and show up on searches. Or how about all the Novelty sellers who were targeted and had their entire catagory banned or the Militaria sellers who were asked to leave, What happens when they take the gloves off and give or sell exclusive catagory rights to one or two companies and make it off limits to small sellers. How would you like to come in one morning and see "were sorry but this catagory is reserved for IBL only and other sellers are not permitted to list computers and computer related products, The following listings have been ended and your listing fees refunded. Businesses and individuals Invest Real money in Inventory based on Ebays sales venue, catagory structure, and TOS policy - Yes theres a real reason to spin-up sellers about ebays disregard for its customers -Discontent on a mass scale is the only thing( short of a drop in stock price) that will bring change.
Just a thought or two...
I don't believe I mentioned the word "cheap" in my post. It's just an instance of a belittling post on your part.
I've mentioned words like experience, knowledge and connenctions and have indicated that those who utilize the above in their business practices are wise. They are, in fact, principles, when applied, so perhaps we are laboring over the definition of principals.
As far as success is concerned, the definition is measured on an individual basis. Some are happy to work little and enjoy their family life. eBay allows them to do so. Others are looking to build large businesses. eBay has also provided a platform for these types of people, as well.
I suppose that one can summize that eBay is what you make of it.
posted on November 7, 2002 08:18:53 AM
For over 3 years I've seen posts on AW about how eBay is in decline, it's a idea whose time has passed, it's a business model that can't continue, you just can't make money on eBay anymore, it ain't like it was.
The truth though is for the last 3 years eBay has grown, sales have increased dramatically, and the buyers flock to eBay in record numbers, some buyers don't even know of another place to shop on the internet.
Now if your sales are failing there are two thought patterns you can take.
1)eBay is in decline and I need look elsewhere.
2)I'm unable to compete with more savvy sellers on eBay.
Not many are going to want to admit they are failing, so the obvious answer is eBay is in failing.
My opinion is eBay will keep increasing in sales, and in 3 months there will be another, "eBay's time has passed," thread, and 3 months after that another, and 3 months after that another...
posted on November 7, 2002 08:52:12 AM
Many posters in this thread are very self-assured that their sales will always be great and they will always meet the challenges that selling on ebay presents. Perhaps they are correct in their assumption or perhaps their day is coming when they too lament will the decline in Ebay.
posted on November 7, 2002 09:22:09 AM
Let's say, for arguments sake, that eBay ends up declining over the next few years. Are these online buyers, which I might add are aggresively growing in numbers, just simply going to dissapear? I think not.
Just as one can infer from the Fortune article, it is wise to expand outside of eBay in one's online selling efforts. It is best not to have one's eggs all in the same basket. I share in this philosphy.
Despite the fact that we have personally experienced growth selling on eBay year to year, we still market our products on our own heavily promoted website, as well. It's a large part of our business. We also participate on other selling platforms. Amazon, Yahoo! Stores, uBid and several other online locations are also viable selling channels to name a few. Options grow tenfold when you take into account all of the advertising, cooperative, search engine and email marketing channels that are available. Along with these options comes improved tools that are available to reach your targeted customers. They're getting better every day and are becoming easy to use, even for the novice.
The internet is here to stay. More and more buyers are going to flock online to purchase goods each year. This holiday season will be record setting! Many will buy on eBay and elsewhere and it will be our own resonsibility as sellers to reach as many of our potential customers as we can. This reality exists whether eBay declines, grows or stays the same in the future.
posted on November 7, 2002 09:44:27 AM
I think ebay MUST maintain a very delicate balance between the number of sellers/items listed and buyers/items sold. Ebay is the steward of that balance and if the scales get out of whack it could be a disaster for them.
I think they are steering ebay a little with the no more regular auction FLDs and the free Fixed Price listing day and one cent gallery days. Maybe the balance is self-correcting.
posted on November 7, 2002 11:45:45 AM
In the Fortune article an antiques dealer states that she is only doing half the business she did 3 yrs ago. One of the causes she cites is the casual sellers looking to make quick money emptying out Grandma's attic. "They use the fixed-price option, but they price the items too low," says Daeley. That decreases the bids Daeley gets for similar items.
Is this too much different than someone new setting up at a flea market and doing the same thing to a dealer that has been there for years? Or someone new to retail opening a shop down the street in direct competition to yours and undercutting your prices because they don't realize the cost of doing business? Things like this have been happening for many years so it's not just ebay.
I see the bigger dealer blaming it on the smaller guy and I see the smaller guy blaming the bigger dealer. Nothing changes.
posted on November 7, 2002 12:18:19 PM
Internet growth is maturing - look at AOL's growth problems and you'll see eBay in the same boat soon.
Again, I would add that eBay's finacial success is not and can not be correlated to sellers success.
Sellers make money from a source that eBay makes no income from and that source is buyers. But eBay has totally branded the sellers and buyers.
It would appear that many mistakenly say "eBay" when they refer to their own business. Sellers have been brain washed by eBay's branding by refering to their own business now as "eBay". As the article said, there have been NO sellers on eBay that became millionaires, the only millionaires made were stock optioned employees.
Will eBay completely fail ? No. Will it disappear overnight? No. Will the garage sale part of eBay maintain its dominance 5 years from now ? Probably not.
eBay may be 99% realestate, motor vehicles, and entertainment packages in the not too distant future. Follow the revenue. eBay makes more money with less costs selling cars than any other sales on the site. eBay's revenue results and growth are being fueled by the automotive and realestate sections.
The garage sale/auction venue has matured. It represents a function that is already "in the bag" for eBay.
posted on November 7, 2002 12:36:19 PMReamondAgain, I would add that eBay's finacial success is not and can not be correlated to sellers success.
I'll give you a nickel if you can explain that to where I can understand it.
If the stores in a mall are failing there's a high probablitiy the mall isn't looking at financial success. Most will accept that to be a true statement in the real world. You're saying that doesn't apply in the e-commerce world?
posted on November 7, 2002 01:01:22 PMI'll give you a nickel if you can explain that to where I can understand it
eBay is totally fluid. Your failure as a seller or even a group of sellers does not transfer to eBay's failure.
Collectibles are selling for less money. Why hasn't that hurt eBay's business ? Sell through rates are down, why hasn't that hurt eBay's business ?
The reasons it doesn't hurt eBay's business is because as one seller fails and leaves, another takes his/her place and repeats the cycle, and eBay can move into other ventures with little or no extra costs-- Collectible prices depressed ? eBay opens a realestate section. Beanie Baby prices collapse ? eBay opens an automobile sales section.
So does the Beanie Baby seller now sell cars ? Does the antique/collectible seller now sell realestate? eBay could care less.
The bottom line ? Any particular seller or group of sellers are expendable and eBay will still make money and grow, but it may do it through new or different categories.
It's somewhat like the stock market. While some stocks might be down and some stocks might be up, the only winner/loser is if you own that particular stock, EXCEPT if you own the stock market. eBay owns the stock market. It doesn't make any difference if a seller makes a profit or not as long as you sell through the eBay market, eBay makes money.
Look at garage sales. If you subtract what the seller paid for the items from what the garage sale item sells for, they inevitably lose money. Who actually makes a profit off garage sales? The newspapers that advertise them, the company that sells you the gargae sale signs. Here is a "business activity" that loses money evey time, yet people still do it, and there is a profitable avenue to it for the newspapers and sign makers. eBay is the newspaper/sign maker for internet sales. eBay makes money either way.
posted on November 7, 2002 01:05:02 PM
There's no doubt the ebay will continue it's monstorus growth and success. But many feel that growth will be mostly in areas other than ebay's traditional auction arena. Ebay is now aggressively marketing the real estate and motor vehicle sectors for instance. As the mega businesses come to realize that ebay has some much traffic that there is no need to build and promote their own websites when they can pay ebay small fees. More and more big sellers will join the site.
The little sellers may become less and less important to ebay as the mega seller become their main concern and revenue source.
Ebay won't decline but the traditional auction portion may.
posted on November 7, 2002 10:35:12 PM
I've been active on eBay for five years now, and times of seeming End Of The World Doom have often seemed to be upon it. In fact, if you search very old Auction Watch threads you can probably find me joining the Greek Chorus singing the It's All Over song.
Well, it is not all over. Yes, much of the easy pickings money is gone. There was a time when I would buy out of print books cheaply on HamiltonBooks.com and then resell them at a good profit on eBay. I made sure to never keep more than a couple week's worth of inventory on hand, because I figured that someday Hamilton Books would get their *** together and sell on eBay themselves .... why should I get to profit as an extra middle man? Sure enough, Hamilton Books is now active on eBay, Amazon and Half.com.
However, recently I put up some auctions for the first time in a long time, and lo and behold they are exceeding my expectations. I picked up a few nice auto repair manuals for $1 each at a local store's clearance sale and am selling them off on eBay for $7-$10 each. Not big money, but a great profit margin. Likewise my wife's 10+ year old Kenmore sewing machine which we bought for around $125 back then is currently bid at $64 with a day still to go. That is a better price than we would get by selling it at a garage sale, and eBay is much less of a hassle.
I also own several physical children's toy store locations (www.thinkertoys.com), and we sometimes use eBay as a clearance venue. For that effort, recovering our cost-of-goods is a "win", and eBay comes through for us 95% of the time, usually at a little better than our cost.
None of the challengers to eBay over these past six years has made even a dent in eBay's critical mass ... and like many I tried hard to have the answer come out a different way.
The companies which succeed in the very long haul are those who adapt carefully to evolving markets. So far eBay is doing that fantastically well.
In many categories the easy money days of picking up junk for $1 at the Goodwill and selling it for $50 the next week on eBay are over. Any basic study of economics will tell you that such outsized returns will always draw enough competition such that the returns will be chopped back down to size. Thus, if you ever hit on one of those veins of gold, realize that it will end and plan your efforts accordingly. Otherwise you will get stuck holding a big bag full of Retired Beanie Babies ....
posted on November 7, 2002 11:34:42 PM
I think we are having a problem on this thread with terminology.
Some equate the term eBay with sellers. They are two different things.
eBay can be doing fine, all the while sellers in many categories are doing poorly.
eBay sellers are very much like the fruit picking "Okies" in the Grapes of Wrath. While the fruit farm is doing well, the Okie fruit pickers are doing quite poorly. If the Okie fruit pickers quit, there are people standing in line to take their places.
The sellers are not eBay and eBay is not the sellers, even though Meg and crew have done a very good job convincing otherwise.
