sparkz
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posted on September 20, 2005 08:23:19 PM new
Things are starting to look bad for those on the gulf coast. Here's an excerpt from an interin advisory:
<<DATA FROM THE KEY WEST NOAA DOPPLER RADAR AND AN AIR FORCE RESERVE
UNIT RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT INDICATE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE
NOW INCREASED TO NEAR 110 MPH...175 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. RITA
IS A STRONG CATEGORY TWO HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON SCALE.
ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS...AND
RITA IS EXPECTED TO BECOME A CATEGORY THREE HURRICANE WEDNESDAY
MORNING... AND REACH CATEGORY FOUR STRENGTH BY WEDNESDAY EVENING>>
If this thing reaches category 4 by tomorrow evening, it has a very good chance at becoming a category 5 before landfall. I hope to hell anyone on the gulf coast who is following this has sense enough to retreat now. That point of impact shown on the tracking map means nothing at this point. The 3 to 5 day impact prediction has an error allowance of more than 300 miles in either direction at this point. Rita could just as easily hit the Louisiana coast as it could the Texas coast.
A $75.00 solid state device will always blow first to protect a 25 cent fuse ~ Murphy's Law
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sparkz
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posted on September 20, 2005 09:27:17 PM new
Here's the first indication of where NHC thinks this thing is going.
<<THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY INDICATING RAPID INTENSIFICATION FOR THE NEXT
24 HOURS APPEARS TO BE ON TRACK. DURING THE PAST 14 HOURS...THE
CENTRAL PRESSURE HAS DECREASED 20 MB...OR AT A RATE OF ABOUT 2
DVORAK T-NUMBERS PER 24 HOURS. WHILE SUCH A LARGE PRESSURE FALL
TREND RARELY OCCURS FOR MORE THAN 24 HOURS...THE VERY FAVORABLE
UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW PATTERN AND 30C-31C SSTS BENEATH RITA SUGGEST
THAT RAPID INTENSIFICATION SHOULD CONTINUE FOR AT LEAST ANOTHER 24
HOURS. A POLEWARD OUTFLOW CHANNEL IS WELL ESTABLISHED WITH OUTFLOW
ACCUMULATING INTO A LARGE UPPER-LEVEL LOW...OR MASS SINK...EAST OF
THE BAHAMAS. IN ADDITION... AN EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW CHANNEL ALSO
APPEARS TO BE DEVELOPING. GIVEN THE DUAL OUTFLOW PATTERN THAT IS
EXPECTED TO PERSIST FOR THE NEXT 36-48 HOURS...STRENGTHENING INTO A
CATEGORY 5 HURRICANE IS A DISTINCT POSSIBILITY>>
When NHC utters the phrase "Category 5", it's time to think about taking a vacation in Alaska.
A $75.00 solid state device will always blow first to protect a 25 cent fuse ~ Murphy's Law
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tsunamii
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posted on September 21, 2005 04:04:42 AM new
Actually, the chance of a full fledged hurricane hitting California is slim to none. No hurricane has ever hit California. By the time a hurricane gained that much latitude the waters would be too cold to support it. The waters off of the coast of CA rarely get above the low 70's and this is because of the Alaskan Current. Remnants of a Hurricane definitely occur and can be major rain events. Tropical Storms are a possibility but rare. The last TS to hit there was in the late 1930's I believe.
The most likely time for California to have a TS is during an El Nino year. The waters heat up a little more during El Nino.
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sanmar
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posted on September 21, 2005 10:33:21 AM new
At 10:00AM PDT, Rita is now a Category 4 with winds of 145 MPH. The Mayor of Houston is asking people to start evacuating. Not yet declaring a mandatory evacuation. The storm surge could go as far as 35 miles inland which would flodd most of the south side of Houston. I know the country well, I ran a motel in Clute which 30 miles west of Galveston & 40 miles southwest of Houston, The NASA Command Center is in this area, just south of Houston.
Life Is Too Short To Drink Bad Wine
[ edited by sanmar on Sep 21, 2005 10:37 AM ]
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sparkz
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posted on September 21, 2005 10:59:47 AM new
Don't be at all surprised if the update at 11:00 P.M. announces Rita as a Cat 5. The intensity is a foregon conclusion. The exact path, and its proximity to the Louisiana coastline is what's critical now. There is currently a flood watch in effect for areas of the La. coast, including New Orleans.
A $75.00 solid state device will always blow first to protect a 25 cent fuse ~ Murphy's Law
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photosensitive
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posted on September 21, 2005 11:51:19 AM new
All the talk about the Galveston hurricane sent me looking at our stereo card collection. We have about 20 cards of the 1900 hurricane. They are just so frightening! Hope the Texas coast is spared from a really bad hit. Of course New Orleans is in no shape to take even heavy rain.
Our heart goes out to the whole Gulf coast.
-----o----o----o----o----o----o----o----o
The illiterate of the future will be the person ignorant of the use of the camera as well as of the pen.
Maholy-Nagy, Vision in Motion, 1947
[ edited by photosensitive on Sep 21, 2005 11:52 AM ]
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sparkz
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posted on September 21, 2005 01:13:28 PM new
Rita has been upgraded to a Category 5 hurricane with maximum sustained winds of 165 mph. Regardless of where it hits, it won't be pretty. I hope the people along the coast take this seriously and evacuate.
A $75.00 solid state device will always blow first to protect a 25 cent fuse ~ Murphy's Law
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sparkz
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posted on September 21, 2005 05:00:38 PM new
Hurricane Rita is now the third most intense hurricane on record.
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/MIATCUAT3+shtml/212351.shtml
A $75.00 solid state device will always blow first to protect a 25 cent fuse ~ Murphy's Law
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zoomin
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posted on September 21, 2005 06:00:38 PM new
I hope the folks in the cone know how serious a category 5 is.
I have a lump in my throat.
Please tell me they will get out of it's path!
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niel35
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posted on September 21, 2005 06:13:06 PM new
Sparky - I think you need to start a new thread for each Hurricane. what kind of a forecaster are you?? I think there is another one out there. My God, I feel so bad for those Texans on the coast..........
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fenix03
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posted on September 21, 2005 06:34:15 PM new
Sparx - make it stop! The parental home, 2 months from completion is sitting right at the coast.
~~~ ~~~ ~~~ ~~~ ~~~
An intelligent deaf-mute is better than an ignorant person who can speak.
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sparkz
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posted on September 21, 2005 07:38:31 PM new
Fenix...At one point this week, you had 3 hurricanes in your front yard out in the Pacific. One moved on and the other two were downgraded to tropical storms. As tsunami correctly pointed out, the probabilities of Calif getting hit by a hurricane are zilch, thanks to Ewora for sending the cool ocean waters down this way from Alaska. Anything that happens in Calif comes without warning to evacuate. Earthquakes, tsunamis, even the occasional tornadoes come as a surprise. I still like your theory about the carriers in San Diego harber keeping them scared away. I wish I could make Rita stop. If I could figure that out, I would be rich enough to never have to list another item on Ebay. In fact, I could hire Meg as my upstairs maid. When mother nature goes on the rampage, you learn to step aside, swing the cape and yell ole at the right time. Maybe we could hire a tribe of Native Americans to do a rain dance in reverse....Hmmmm, just might work.
A $75.00 solid state device will always blow first to protect a 25 cent fuse ~ Murphy's Law
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ewora
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posted on September 21, 2005 08:05:05 PM new
Here I am catching a red salmon in those cold Alaska waters...It even looks cold doesn't it?
[ edited by ewora on Sep 21, 2005 08:05 PM ]
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sparkz
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posted on September 21, 2005 08:21:29 PM new
Amy...I never noticed the salmon. It's those cooooold, wet looking clouds at the top of the photo that caught my eye. If you could spare a few, they would certainly be appreciated here in the San Joaquin Valley 
A $75.00 solid state device will always blow first to protect a 25 cent fuse ~ Murphy's Law
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sparkz
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posted on September 21, 2005 09:03:27 PM new
Rita is getting worse by the minute. This is starting to look like a feud between a deadbeat bidder and a crooked seller. This is from the latest NHC advisory:
<<MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 175 MPH...280 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. RITA IS A POTENTIALLY CATASTROPHIC CATEGORY FIVE HURRICANE ON
THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON SCALE. SOME FLUCTUATIONS IN INTENSITY ARE LIKELY
DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 70 MILES...110 KM...
FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP
TO 185 MILES...295 KM.
THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 897 MB...26.49 INCHES.
THIS MEANS RITA IS THE THIRD MOST INTENSE HURRICANE IN TERMS OF
PRESSURE IN THE ATLANTIC BASIN.
TIDES ARE CURRENTLY RUNNING NEAR NORMAL ALONG THE MISSISSIPPI AND
LOUISIANA COASTS IN THE AREAS AFFECTED BY KATRINA. TIDES IN THOSE
AREAS WILL INCREASE UP TO 3 TO 4 FEET AND BE ACCOMPANIED BY LARGE
WAVES OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS... AND RESIDENTS THERE COULD
EXPERIENCE SOME COASTAL FLOODING>>
A $75.00 solid state device will always blow first to protect a 25 cent fuse ~ Murphy's Law
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sparkz
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posted on September 21, 2005 11:05:06 PM new
Niel...Your are correct. There's another castrophy lurking out there, but it will be a couple days before it develops into anything. Meanwhile, here's a pic of the Galveston doppler radar image. It won't show much tonight, but by Friday it will come alive. You will be able to see the approach of Rita and follow it through. This image will update every 6 minutes until Rita flattens the NWS site.
A $75.00 solid state device will always blow first to protect a 25 cent fuse ~ Murphy's Law
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sparkz
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posted on September 23, 2005 03:57:25 PM new
Here's a better view of Rita as seen by the NWS doppler radar at Lake Charles, La. The eye is just coming into view at the bottom of the screen.
A $75.00 solid state device will always blow first to protect a 25 cent fuse ~ Murphy's Law
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sparkz
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posted on September 23, 2005 08:38:30 PM new
Rita is about 55 miles south of the Texas-La. coast moving at 12 mph with a A max sustained wind of 120 mph. I should make landfall in about 5 hours as a Strong Cat 3 hurricane. It could possibly reach Cat 4 before then, but it's not likely. One of the big dangers of this storm, is it's predicted to move north and stall in the N/E Texas- N/W La, S/W arkansas area where it will get caught between two high pressure systems. If this happens, and with the moisture this storm is packing, some areas may see over 25" of rain in a couple days.
A $75.00 solid state device will always blow first to protect a 25 cent fuse ~ Murphy's Law
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sparkz
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posted on September 23, 2005 09:19:18 PM new
The following link goes to a loop display of Rita in motion as seen by Lake Charles radar. It cover approx. the last hour of movement. It takes a couple of minutes for the images to load and you need to have Java enabled to see it.
http://radar.wrh.noaa.gov/radar/loop/DS.p19r0/si.klch.shtml
A $75.00 solid state device will always blow first to protect a 25 cent fuse ~ Murphy's Law
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