posted on December 13, 2000 05:08:11 PM
I'm curious as to what direction you may see auctions going in the year 2001. Do
you think:
-The number of bidders will drop?
-Competition will among sellers will
greatly increase?
-How much do you think sales will be
affected by the postage increase?
I'm trying to be optimistic about
online auctions for 2001, but I have
to admit the postage increase and
increasing competition have me
worried.
posted on December 13, 2000 05:28:27 PM
Sales for most things will continue to be soft, not just online but everywhere else also. People are just not spending like they did. No more fat portfolio. Did anyone catch my post - walmart has missed their numbers the last two weeks. This is not good folks.
I don't think we have seen the bottom yet. When the Christmas bills hit alongside the huge heating bills, this will be the last clue for people who are overextended and have their homes full of things purchased over the last 5 years or so that have lost their appeal. We have seen the height of "collecting" in general, and so now move in the other direction, away from clutter. Clutter you have to pay shipping for? Forget about it. This used to be entertainment, but now the Internet is a utility.
posted on December 13, 2000 05:37:04 PM
the worse things get, the more people want to spend money recreationally. Probably will stay a buyer's market and bids may stay lower than a couple years ago...and the best selling items may turn to utilitarian collectible items. I think old time favorite collectibles will continue to sell...but if what is listed doesn't also have a purpose to rationalize for the bidder a fair reason to buy, it may not sell. I also see lots more sales of new items...if they can be bought at a reasonable savings.
posted on December 13, 2000 05:50:16 PM
In my view Online Auctions will continue to do well.
However for on-line sellers to do well on an individual basis, many will fail and fall by the wayside.
My reasons for this statement are as follows.
The inrease in the volume of sellers will naturally increase competition. This increase in the number of sellers will inevitably happen as more and more people become confident and accepting that on-line shopping and bidding is no longer a novelty but more the norm.
To stay ahead in the competition a seller will have to become more professional in their standard of customer service, more professional in their presentation and particularly careful of the standard of the product they are trying to sell.
The "honeymoon" days of on-line auctions are probably over. The days when any Tom, Dick or Harry could sell the crappiest item with the minimal presentation skills have gone.
As the inrease in on-line use develops worldwide we will see better and more efficient levels of trading and payment services evolve. This in turn will lead to an even greater level of acceptance of safety and confidence with an On-Line Auction.
Auction sites themselves will either improve or fail by their ability to cater for the needs of both sellers and buyers. The competition within the on-line industry will naturally raise the bar as far as standards go. To stay at the top and do well will require that both the industry and sellers constantly strive to offer excellence. Anything less will simply not work for them.
Lets be realistic. Nothing stays the same. If it did we'd still be driving Model T's. Every street corner would have a "Mom & Pop" store, we'd stll be watching black and white tv. Like it or not, things change. What was fine last year isn't always so this year. The changes are consumer driven. auction sellers need to meet the demands, not lament "The good old days".
The concept of sale by auction has always excited the buyer. Whether it was the ancient Greeks selling off a slave or two or todays buyer on the internet, the motivation to win an auction hasn't changed, only the way it's conducted has.
Keep moving with the changes and you'll do well. Fall behind and you'll struggle.
JMHO
posted on December 13, 2000 06:04:29 PM
I am an engineer so what do I know about market analysis. Impacts on sales depends a great deal on the uniqueness of your product and whether if falls into the general categories of consumer goods or investment. Historically, the market for rare collectibles, i.e., antiques, rare or out of print books,etc., has held up quite well through some tough economic times. I think, too, art and crafts at the expert level will do quite well. The key here is that although there is often competing items, there is a high level of uniqueness. Competition in the area of mass produced consumer items quickly drives the profit margin toward zero. To stay in business requires a continuing scramble for the "new" and "unique". I like what VIRAKECH kad to say!
posted on December 13, 2000 06:38:27 PM
I buy on auctions in order to get a bargain, or to save myself inconvenience. For example, I have bought a ton of lego sets for my son. Even with shipping I felt I got a good deal. So for me, auctions have to continue to start at lower prices so I can feel like I'm getting a good deal, even if I end up paying more than a minimum bid. [Considering the "slump" ebay is in, how come I lost all my recent auctions on depression glass? Someone is out there bidding!]
As a seller, I sell secondhand books. If I manage to find an item that someone finds useful or desirable in some way, they will pay me a very nice profit. But even if I get only my starting bid, I get a small but real profit. I think people will keep buying books, even with competition from half.com and Amazon [which I also list on].
I feel optimistic...as a very part-time seller doing this for extra money to buy things like savings bonds.
posted on December 13, 2000 06:55:50 PM
I think auctions will continue to do well for all who do this mainly as a hobby the number of people selling will thin out the flooded catagorys some your profits may not be 2 or 3 hundered percent but fair for all with reasonable exspectations.
I dont think incressed shipping is going to be much of a problem and by the mid febuary The sting will be gone and new rates will just become the norm most sellers as I have been surffing auction have a fixed rate of $5 and up for most items as it is now.
I think you will see a decress in new Items selling at person to person auction do to incressed competition from the brick and clicks who online shares already nearly double this year alone and auction will return more to antique, collectables and craft sales.
I think as auction listings drop we might see ebay offer more free listing days or even a one time list till it sells listing fee to stay number 1 if not I can see ebay falling to #2 or even #3 auction sight by next fall.
posted on December 13, 2000 07:22:18 PM
If you are selling vanity items, I suppose those comments may be true. The same could be said for retail sales. I apologize in advance for offending some, but if the economy is such that sales of Beanie Babies are curtailed, I won't shed a tear. At one end of our "global village" children are starving, while at the other end fat housewives waste hundreds and thousands of dollars on useless, mass-produced "collectible" bean bags.
posted on December 13, 2000 07:33:49 PM
Actually depending where you look beanie babies are still moveing pretty well.
And I seen in the 2000 Prediction that someone felt that beanie baby sales would drop off do to japan knock offs well as it turns out I noticed many of these selling at auction for far more then TY beanies right now.
I my self dont sell beanies in fact I never knew what they were till My Daughter pointed some out at garage sale over this summer.
posted on December 13, 2000 08:23:21 PM
I sell closeout software, and also current titles. Several items I sell at $7.98 are available today at local office superstores for $19.99. Even with shipping, the customer is getting the item at half-off retail.
The time has come for eBay to make the tough decision and actually invest some money in advertising and bringing in new customers. They can't keep banking on our numbers, courting companies like Topps, Ford and GM, drawing customers off-site with targeted banners, and diluting the customer base by sending buyers off to Half.com.
If my business fails at eBay, it won't be for lack of trying, lack of business skills, the economy or competition. It will be because eBay has simply closed its doors to mom and pop sellers.
posted on December 13, 2000 09:12:52 PM
Year 2001 may see a decrease in bidding. As ebay exploded over the years I am sure people went nuts filling out there collections because it was hardly possible to ever do this before with any other medium. It's the old "boom and bust" theory. When people's homes grow cluttered with a collection they tend to stop. I've heard this over and over with beanie babies. "Too many beanies taking up space...need to stop." This isn't really a doom spell for ebay though. Many people stop collecting one thing and start a new field. Plus their buying may fall into other non-collecting categories. Beanie collectors buying Ginsue knives.
Since I've chosen ebay as the best place to do my Christmas shopping, I'd say that's a very positive outlook for ebay. Items are always in stock. Prices are good. One stop shopping. No lines. Reliable service.
Naturally we have to beware of the dangers of a boom. Where there are profits, sellers will follow. That is where we are now. Too many sellers equals low prices- a buyers market. From what I hear lately, many sellers are falling out, going back to work. This will eventually cause lower supply, and increased demand- a sellers market. The cycle is continuous and never ending.
The postage increase will only effect the buyers if sellers also increase their rates. I won't change my rate, and will let the "handling" absorb the raise, therefore my profits will decrease. This could knock out some more sellers.
Overall, I remain positive but cautious. There's a major shift ahead in what people buy, but people are still people, and they will still want to empty their pockets, and clutter up their house.
posted on December 14, 2000 12:35:13 AM
2001- All e-commerce experiences its first recession.
Many laid off Net denzions must decide whether to sell their PC and end their ISP service, or keep looking for a job over the Internet.
Online auctions experience a huge influx of sellers as families attempt to bolster their reduced incomes via the online auctions.
The huge influx of competition forces a crash of already depressed prices, forcing many long time sellers to suspend their online selling activities.
eBay's attempts to realize their grandiose revenue projections hit a brick and motar wall as established retailers postpone any Internet activity until market conditions improve.
This economic shake out continues until 2002 as the Federal Reserve acted with too little and late to stem the recession.
After a full year of no growth in e-commerce, high flyer eBay's stock hits a low of $8 per share.
AOL/Time Warner purchases eBay. Because the business plan of moving eBay from the nation's garage sale to a regualr retail outlet failed utterly, AOL/TW decides to keep eBay a garage sale outlet and scraps any retailing plans. However, P2P file sharing/transfers and secure credit card transactions severly erode eBay's seller and buyer base, as sellers and buyers connect directly and for free through their own PCs.
A new challenge to online retailing erupts as the recession cedes. A new start up offers large cut rate prices on a large varity of items by drop shipping and selling direct from manufactorer. Brick and motars, and local tax authorities lobby Congress to initiate tax and regulations on Internet sales in an attempt to hinder the upstart retailer.
The music industry stops new talent development due to Napster like clones that have no central servers and can not be sued or stopped. The music industry suffers severe losses of revenue. Music groups activly give their digital music away and make their revenue through live appearences and selling t-shirts and hats.
Amazon, after a dismal xmas season and no profit in sight is bought out by Microsoft. Microsoft offers software downloads and real time customer support through the site, Dell enters into a partnership with Microsoft to be the exclusive sellers of PCs etc., on the site, selling new and refurbished equipment. Gateway is forced to enter a partnership with eBay/TW. Compaq remains independant.
High quality video broadcasts are now available over the Net to those with high speed modems. There are literally thousands of choices of independant programing to watch via your PC. The Networks, after losing millions of viewers, demand Congress pass regulations.
The wireless revolution sputters and falters as it is found that people are tired of being wired all the time. People are openly made fun of for carrying beepers, cell phones, and Palm Pilots.
Wealthy people are activly seeking vacation homes without electricity so they can be free of being "connected" to the outside world. Being un-connected begins to catch on. Un-connected villages begin to spring up across the US and Europe. People want to be un-connected and uninformed and just interact with family and neighbors, a symptom of information overload. People emerge from their PC dens and begin to interact locally with festivals, charities, and amateur stage plays.
We all begin to reject the invaision of the Internet and I stop posting...............
I think we will see a recession in the National Economy. I think to a point it will weed out many sellers - and will leave those with solid business knowledge, strong product sources, and a good relationship and care for their buyers.
I think it will take out many sellers who jumped on the band wagon to make a fast buck and don't have a continual, strong product source.
I am afraid many quit their day jobs too soon, and will have to go back to them to survive the slow down in the market.
I don't see the shipping hike will make much difference - there are other modes of shipping outside of the USPS, and since much of on line buying is impulse buying - cost of shipping is important, but not an overwhelming issue - that is as long as the seller isn't gouging on shipping.
