posted on March 4, 2001 03:50:17 PM
Another site speaks of being able to snipe auctions -- not sure what they are talking about. tell me your experiences of people sniping your auctions too.
posted on March 4, 2001 04:13:15 PM
Waiting until the last second to bid so no one else can take your bid into consideration when bidding. Tends to cut the price, but not always.
posted on March 4, 2001 04:16:03 PM
No, no, no! A 'snipe' is a four legged, hairy creature that can only be found deep in the swamp in the middle of the night.
The existance of the 'snipe' has been questioned for years, although many drunk frat boys swear it exists.
There's nothing like a snipe hunt to build up character. Being one on one against the snipe in the wilderness. Every new hunter should try it. Nothing else beats the feeling you get when you finally catch one. They are so clever at hiding themselves.
21:15:00
missed by one second.
[ edited by AnonymousCoward on Mar 4, 2001 09:16 PM ]
posted on March 5, 2001 06:27:05 AM
From ebay's perspective, there is no mechanical difference between a "normal" proxy bid and a "snipe". The bid enters the system and is handled just like any other.
The real difference is in bidder psychology. Experience has shown that being outbid tends to "wake up" some bidders who then re-evaluate what they really think an item is worth, and sometimes they place a second, higher bid. Thus, people have found that bidding later *tends* to make items sell for less (good from a buyer's viewpoint, bad from a seller's of course).
The other aspect of "bidder psychology" that comes to play here is the "pile on" phenomenon. when you see an item with zero (or just a few) bids, many people tend to skip over it. But, if you see one with more bids, then you tend to look at it. Thus, early proxy bids tend to gather even more bids from this effect. Again, bidding later rather than earlier tends to mean fewer bids and lower final price.
posted on March 5, 2001 08:04:03 AMThus, people have found that bidding later *tends* to make items sell for less (good from a buyer's viewpoint, bad from a seller's of course).
What people have found is that, with the rules of the game as they are now, as a bidder, it is advantageous to not give one's competition any time to react to one's bid.
Secondarily, some of us believe that it's advantageous to not give one's self an opportunity to bid more, either.
What does not follow from this observation is that changing the rules would affect the overall level of results in favor of seller. For the vast majority of items, the eBay selling price represents the actual value of the item, including sniping. If the rules were changed, the value of stuff would not change, and selling prices would remain, overall, the same.
posted on March 5, 2001 08:17:28 AM
Generically, a snipe is anything done at the last instance. Changing a fee structure on short notice without emailing your customers or placing the info in your newletter comes to mind.
posted on March 5, 2001 08:23:23 AM
Well, if the purpose of a snipe is to not allow time for a reaction, I'd say AW's fee announcement doesn't qualify- from reading only a few of the threads on the subject, there's been plenty of reaction.
posted on March 5, 2001 11:08:53 AM
sg52: "If the rules were changed, the value of stuff would not change, and selling prices would remain, overall, the same. "
You raise an interesting point. While I agree that the average price level is *mostly* determined by supply and demand, within some broad range, there is still a range. Look at the "value" of something that is sold more than once, and you can find the price varies by 2X (or more!).
while changing bidding rules would not result in a paperclip selling for hundreds of dollars, nor a Van Gogh going for a buck, I am reasonably confident that, for example, making sniping either easier or harder would result in the average price falling or rising by a "moderate" amount (10%?). If this were a textbook world, with an infinite number of emotionless buyers and sellers, then of course rules would make no difference, but in a world populated such as ebay does, the rules *can* make somewhat of a difference.
This assertion is backed up by the many, many buyers who have noticed, through empirical observation, that bidding earlier *generally* results in paying more, and conversely.
posted on March 6, 2001 11:28:40 AMThis assertion is backed up by the many, many buyers who have noticed, through empirical observation, that bidding earlier *generally* results in paying more, and conversely.
The typical sniping analysis doesn't account for the fact that some/many snipers wouldn't bid at all on an "extended" auction.
Observe:
-high end items, with reserve, listed by "stores" attract a lot less attention, because us "snipers" know that there's no bargain likely to result here. The actual result is far lower interest, and percentage of completed auctions.
-many of us snipe as a defense against shills, an assurance that the game is a fair game. Without this assurance, we might well avoid the auction entirely.
-sniping is in and of itself a rush, a fact which attracts more bidders.
Re-assertion: in a fair game with sufficient buyers and sellers, the value of things doesn't change, and thus final sales prices wouldn't change either, under any fair rules change. Unfair rules changes would drive away either buyers, sellers, or both.
Regarding variations in selling prices (as compared to missed reserve): for liquid items, selling in the $100..$500 range, variations are nearly always due to listing quality, seller quality, or, rarely, day-of-year timing.
"Re-assertion: in a fair game with sufficient buyers and sellers, the value of things doesn't change, and thus final sales prices wouldn't change either, under any fair rules change. Unfair rules changes would drive away either buyers, sellers, or both. Regarding variations in selling prices (as compared to missed reserve): for liquid items, selling in the $100..$500 range, variations are nearly always due to listing quality, seller quality, or, rarely, day-of-year timing."
Well, of course those things are the factors that cause much/most of the variation. The point is that ebay is NOT the "perfect market" that is required in order for prices to remain ABSOLUTELY UNCHANGEABLE with respect to rule changes, as you are supposing. I'm not saying that rule changes would have a huge impact, but rather that the impact is not zero.
Lets face it, we have an IMperfect market here at ebay, where all kinds of factors affect the outcome, including BUYER PSYCHOLOGY, which CAN and IS affected by the rules.
I can't prove this, of course (and you can't prove the opposite), but I'm a LOT more comfortable asserting that "rules affect psychology affect prices" than "no matter what the rules are the final price will be exactly the same".
If the world were populated by Vulcans, you'd be more correct, but we emotion-filled humans are rarely so consistent as you want us to be!
PS - I guess this means you are saying that all the buyers who have personally observed paying less for items via sniping are fooling themselves? I also tend to trust the hundreds (thousands) of observations more than your hypothetical perfect market.
PPS - "extended auction"??? I'm not sure why you are introducting that into here, but it doesn't impact my analysis at all.
PPPS - By the way, I'm not really sure how we got into this "rules" discussion, since I was originally talking about changed behavior within a CONSTANT set of rules (i.e, the current ebay rules, which allow both "early proxy" and "sniping". Before we get too far, if you really want to pursue this, you'll have to define "fair" and "unfair" rules changes. I'm not sure I really care, to be honest, because my original assertion (change in buyer behavior can change final price) is still correct, but feel free to extend your "rule change" discussion if you so desire.
posted on March 6, 2001 12:25:49 PMPS - I guess this means you are saying that all the buyers who have personally observed paying less for items via sniping are fooling themselves?
No.
Given today's rules, and the commonality of sniping, non-sniping buyers are paying too much.
[/i]PPS - "extended auction"??? I'm not sure why you are introducting that into here, but it doesn't impact my analysis at all.[/i]
I presumed that any auction which did not reward sniping would be in some way extended, time-wise. If there's any other kind of non-snipable auction, it might be interesting to contemplate.
posted on March 6, 2001 12:37:03 PM
I've got to run for the day (closing down early due to snow), but here's something for you to contemplate:
"Bidders may not bid in the last 5 minutes unless they have bid at least once earlier, and you may only bid once in that time period".
Or even more drastic, on top of the above rule: "Bids in the last 5 minutes may only be one increment above an earlier bid" (forcing you to bid "most of the way" in an earlier, proxy bid.)
The above are examples of non-extended auctions that have a rule change from the current ebay rules.
Extended auctions actually wouldn't do much to make sniping less effective, in my view, since most proxy bidders don't hang around anyway to re-bid. The above examples would be more likely (IMO) to shift the "balance of power" away from sniping since it eliminates much of the value of sniping - the element of surprise, the lack of bids attracting other bids, etc.
NOTE: I'm NOT advocating the above, just illustrating non-extended bidding rules that diminish the value of sniping, perhaps even more than extended auctions do.
posted on March 6, 2001 12:40:26 PM
In any case, I have to run, but I think you are agreeing with me anyway - that snipers tend, on average, to pay less than early proxy bidders.
We can have an interesting discussion about rule changes if you want to, but I was really just trying to answer the earlier question - "how is a snipe bid different than a proxy one"...
posted on March 6, 2001 01:05:04 PM
God I luv a good snipe fest!
since most proxy bidders don't hang around anyway to re-bid.
Really? And you have stats to back this up?
No? I didn't think so.
Every auction just as every bidder will bring different results to the table.
I had 2 auctions close a couple hours back, both were somewhat hard to find items, both ended for VERY good $$, and in both cases the early proxy bidders were there at the end trying to hold onto their earlier proxy bid.
In both cases, they failed, and lost out to bidders that were willing to pay more.
If the auction went another 5-10 minutes, would they [early proxy bidders] have bid more? Maybe, maybe not?
Did the low bid counts keep the other bidders away & cause me to make less than what I "could" have possibly made? Not by the looks of things.
Sniping keeps things exciting, and I've always felt that just like people who get hooked to gambling [because it's exciting], sniping helps ALL sellers no matter what some folks might like to think.
Coulda,shoulda,woulda, is quite common at RL auctions as well.
posted on March 6, 2001 01:20:16 PMEvery auction just as every bidder will bring different results to the table.
And there you have it.
What is the item up for auction? Is it rare or common? How does its' quality match up to the typical item listed? How many are usually listed on eBay at any one time? How many right now? Is it popular right now? How good is the description? Are there pictures? Are they any good? Is the item listed in an appropriate category? What kind of feedback record does the seller have? What are the shipping terms? Is it a reserve auction? Is the opening bid set low or priced near retail? Is there a counter? How many page views? How many bids has the item received so far? Who are the bidders? Do they know one another? Does the auction end at a time that makes it convenient for bidders to be present? At auction closing time, what is the weather like? Is it a holiday? Is there anything unusual happening in the news? Is eBay functioning properly?
Well, no, I don't have stats to *prove* that most early proxy bidders don't hang around for the very end of the auction, but that has been my experience over the years (and you don't have stats to prove otherwise either)..but certainly common sense would indicate that the REASON they choose to "bid and run" is just for that reason.
In any case, I will also state that based on actual observation of auctions that have done extended auctions, such as Onsale, most of the early proxy bidders did NOT hang around for the end, for the reason expressed above - they placed their max bid and went on their way. Placing an early proxy bid and then coming back is almost the worst of both worlds - you suffer the ill effects of early bidding (attracting more bids, etc) and you also suffer the inconvenience of sniping (having to be there at the end).
I still doubt that, percentage-wise, most early proxy bidders (those bidding their max up front) come back at the very end. I have seen them come back in the middle of an auction after getting outbid, but rarely do they tend to appear at the last minute.
Your stuff tends to be more unique, so perhaps that skews what you observe? The majority of ebay stuff tends to be more commonplace, so I suspect it gets more "bid and run" kind of action.
You're welcome to think that sniping *helps* all sellers, but then you're calling the hundreds/thousands of buyers who claim otherwise liars (or confused).
I believe the mass of them rather than the one of you.
And now I really am gone.
[ edited by captainkirk on Mar 6, 2001 01:39 PM ]
