posted on June 5, 2001 06:06:00 PM new
This from AuctionBytes NewsFlash:
June 6, 2001 - TIAS Reports 39% Drop on eBay Prices
An internal email sent by TIAS to its store owners shows that the average price of over 18,000 items sold on eBay by TIAS store owners was down 39% this year compared to last year. The memo confirms the downward trend that AuctionBytes.com identified in a study released in early May. The AuctionBytes study concluded that prices of collectibles on eBay were down 25% compared to the previous year.
TIAS.com provides electronic storefronts for sellers of antiques and collectibles and provides an interface for their users to list their items on eBay. TIAS compared their members' eBay sales from January through May 2001 to the same period in 2000 and found that closing prices had dropped an average of 39% in 2001. The memo indicated that the study was done because a number of TIAS dealers who sell on eBay had complained that they were not realizing the same closing prices they had in previous years.
AuctionBytes got hold of the memo soon after it was transmitted. According to the memo, "The average auction sale by a TIAS dealer selling on eBay from Jan - May of 2000 was $83.52. The average auction sale by a TIAS dealer selling on eBay from Jan - May of 2001 was $50.49."
The memo went on to say, "the number of items loaded from TIAS to eBay increased by 63% over the same period of time. TIAS dealers are increasing their sales on eBay, but the average amount each item sells for is decreasing."
When contacted, eBay spokesperson Kevin Pursglove said, "eBay has an incredibly healthy collectibles marketplace."
posted on June 5, 2001 06:58:25 PM new
I'm just trying to survive in my little niche. I need a big score to make some good profit, and then take a vacation.
I'm so worn out at the moment I haven't listed much in the last week. Got to get rested up as I am hoping to score a fabulous lot of stuff later this week. I haven't seen it yet, but I've contacted the owner and he says maybe he can show it to me on Thursday.
[ edited by loosecannon on Jun 5, 2001 07:01 PM ]
posted on June 5, 2001 07:07:14 PM new
I got this same email and thought it was quite interesting.It confirm what I have believed for some time that prices are dropping.
At some point they will bottom out or people will just not bother.Certain items I no longer sell as they do not bring cost anymore yet the same items in dealer circles and brick and mortar auctions are on the rise at all but ebaY.
You constantly have to try and adjust on ebaY and its not easy to do as many of us are aware.
posted on June 5, 2001 07:35:27 PM new
Its nothing more than real life exposure to the law of supply and demand.
More sellers selling the same widgets to the same pool of buyers means the buyers are going to pay less for the widgets.
And as the sellers try to keep their income level they start putting more things up for sale. And since their "rent" at ebay is determined by how many widgets they list then naturally ebay will make more money as they desperately list more so that they can stay even.
Eventually, enough of thoes sellers will drop off ebay and go in another direction and the supply will drop and prices rise.
Until new sellers come on board because they saw the high prices and the supply will rise and prices will drop...and so the cycle goes.
And moving off ebay to another internet auction site isn't going to change this either...the buyers at the other site are mostly ebay buyers so the demand remains the same and the supply doesn't drop...it just moves to a different location.
Ebay can only affect this by bringing in more buyers...we affect it by listing the "supply".
posted on June 5, 2001 07:45:30 PM new
It's hard to interpet "statistics" of this type because of the lack of normalization. If dealers A,B,C...X,Y, and Z listed exactly the same mercandise (items and numbers)in the two periods, you might be able draw some kind of conclusion. Otherwise it's just a feeling that markets are off.
posted on June 5, 2001 09:09:02 PM new
"There are lies, damned lies, and statistics", to quote (I think) mark twain.
The number of items increases by 2/3...its very unlikely that the composition stayed the same, so the fact that the "average" price dropped is meaningless.
An alternate interpretation of the "data" is that sales are so good, in fact, that many part time sellers are now selling full time, finding many, smaller/cheaper items to sell besides their relatively few, but relatively expensive, large/costly items.
I don't really believe that either, but in any case, this "report" is pretty meaningless, telling us mostly what we already know - there are many more "somethings" being sold on ebay than last year.
It certainly wouldn't surprise me to discover that prices have fallen, but a better way would be to compare similar items, year to year...
posted on June 5, 2001 10:12:59 PM new
I think it's probably a combination of BOTH phenomena happening---prices on like items have dropped AS WELL AS sellers listing lower-and-lower-valued items as prices drop.
Let's say a TIAS seller lists 12 antiques worth $150-$400 each, similar to ones he's sold successfully on eBay in the past---but this time only 6 meet reserve instead of the usual 10. . .and the 6 that DO sell are the "lower end" of the offerings. The next group has equal success (or LACK of success with the higher-end items), so the seller lists a lower-valued batch of items next, and lower still the next time, and so on as the success rate keeps dropping for the seller's highest-valued items in every group.
So the seller's eBay sales now average $50 each instead of the $83 they brought a year ago---partly because he's listing "cheaper" stuff that's more likely to sell successfully (and which represent less of an investment for him), and partly because his "good" stuff is bringing less money (and he needs to turn merchandise for cash flow, even if it's at break-even prices).
The winners are the buyers who get dirt-cheap bargains, and eBay who gets more listing fees as their FVFs decline.
posted on June 5, 2001 10:55:51 PM new
The data isn't meaningless, it isn't difficult to interpret, it isn't because last year they were selling high end and this year they are selling low end. The data is representative, accurate and easy to interpret: There is a glut of items available, buyers are losing interest, and sales are down.
Two years ago I bought a Yamaha DX7 synthesizer on eBay. The average price was $500. There were one or two pieces available. Now I am selling the same keyboard. There are a dozen identical synthesizers currently for sale. The average price is $300.
The synthesizer itself has not lost value. What Pursglove calls a "healthy" market I would call "bloated," but that's because I'm a seller, not a buyer. However, buyers face different problems, including the risk of being defrauded.
Also, the market itself is dimishing. If you've sold "Buttercup" beanie babies on eBay for the past five years, after your 20,000th beanie, you've got to figure sales aren't going to last forever. Likewise, the rest of the collectibles. eBay is huge, but it is not infinite.
I don't believe that sellers will leave and prices will rise again. For every seller that leaves eBay, 10 newbies are waiting to jump on the bandwagon. Eventually, the real auctions will move to "niche" and specialty sites, perhaps linked via search portals.
posted on June 5, 2001 11:00:30 PM new
This does not mean a 39% drop in price for the same item...Only the average final price is lower. Maybe people are selling things for less money because the economy is not as good, and cheaper things sell better? There are a million reasons why this is the case...This does not mean that the same item is selling for less. I've not really noticed a difference.
Two other factors: Postage (which is a lot more expensive than a year ago) and the cost of doing business for many sellers has skyrocketed, with everybody getting more money from us. That cost has to be passed along somewhere, so maybe higher shipping/handling fees result in lower auction prices? Who knows...
posted on June 6, 2001 12:24:22 AM new
Even if the "real" auctions moved to a niche site, as long as the demand does not increase the prices won't go back up.
The buyer pool will be the same as now...especially if the buyers from ebay are being directed by us to any new site.
Since at this point it is highly unlikely that the seller pool/number of items will be reduced the only way to raise prices is to either get more buyers...or switch to items that are not currently being sold (in other words, reduce the glut of similar merchandise)
posted on June 6, 2001 01:07:22 AM new
Hi, Amy. I guess I should clarify my statement. I believe that the "quality" sellers will eventually move off eBay and on to specialty sites. And yes, I do think there will be attrition among sellers. The good stuff will go to www.antique-auctions.com, and the junk will remain at eBay. There will be a lot of seller turnover at eBay, while Antique-Auctions.com will become established based on a superior reputation.
It may take some time, but I expect eventually Antique-Auctions.com will replace eBay as "the" place to buy quality antiques, at which time the fees might be so high as to discourage those selling low-end merchandise. The advertising might run like this: "If you want cheap, buy at eBay. If you want quality, buy from Antique-Auctions."
There will always be a market for quality items, and a market for junk. But everything under one roof is not the ideal environment for the quality stuff. Customers come looking for quality, and get suckered in by the garish cheap junk. (A Rolexxx watch for $10.) I expect that in time, it will benefit the quality sellers to distance themselves from eBay. In that way, quality sellers can establish their own market and clientele.
posted on June 6, 2001 05:05:32 AM new
Don't you think it all balances out considering the massive amounts of money made in the early days off the goofiest things?
I do.
I am still doing well, just buying less at better prices and much better quality.
posted on June 6, 2001 05:15:33 AM new
Interesting note! Not surprising since massive supply causes prices to plummet until supply meets demand, but eBay the company couldn't care less as long as THEIR profits skyrocket. For example, Amazon Marketplace has less supply than Half.com and so Marketplace sellers tend to see slightly higher profits than Half sellers, and on some products much higher. Helps that Marketplace buyers don't seem to know that the competing Half.com venue exists.
eBay's turning out to be a dumping ground, a low priced flea market, the ultimate thrift store, generating profits for VERY FEW except eBay the company.
posted on June 6, 2001 05:37:52 AM new
I think you can point some fingers at bad sellers as well. I was talking to a friend who is a record/CD collector and a casual ebay buyer. She sent some cash to a seller in Spain with a good feedback rating. He never delivered the product, his account quickly accumulated a bunch of negs and he was NARU'd. My friend knows that there are risks involved in sending cash to overseas dealers (which is why she never bids too much on such auctions), but needless to say, she is now "once bitten, twice shy" about ebay in general. She still spends good money at flea markets, record shows and record shops - so her money is available to the market, it just isn't being directed into ebay. Sorry folks, but it's the "one bad apple" rule - and I suspect her experience is not unique.
posted on June 6, 2001 05:40:18 AM new
"The data isn't meaningless, it isn't difficult to interpret, it isn't because last year they were selling high end and this year they are selling low end. The data is representative, accurate and easy to interpret: There is a glut of items available, buyers are losing interest, and sales are down. "
You may be right, but you can't prove it from the couple of facts given in the first post.
Without controlling for number of buyers, kinds of sellers, reserve usage, and type/kind/condition of item, you can't draw ANY interesting/useful conclusions from the "drop in prices".
Perhaps it is consistent with YOUR personal experience/data, but in and of itself, the data is meaningless. All it tells you is that the average item sold is selling for less...no more, no less. That COULD be because of a lower price for the same item, or it might be due to other reasons. It does NOT prove that the same item is selling for less, year to year.
We just don't know from the data given, and any other interpretation is purely a personal one, not backed up by the facts.
It wouldn't surprise me to discover that average selling prices for an identical item is down, but this sure doesn't tell me a thing about it.
It would seem far more useful, and perhaps not much more work, to identify a small group of, oh, ten representative items in an area that can be compared year to year and see how the prices are doing on those items. If prices are down so dramatically, as everyone seems to be suggesting, it would seem pretty easy to dig up this proof, rather than relying on some overall aggregate number that has all kind of random noise in it.
You'll have to forgive my skepticism of these kinds of "studies", but I've seen far too many shoddy "analyses" in my lifetime.
posted on June 6, 2001 05:40:50 AM new
Some of the stuff on eBay is FAR from junk, but even the quality items sell for much less than what you'd pay in the brick and mortar world. I've seen some awesome collectibles, DVDs, memorabilia, etc. on eBay, but then again I know I can steal it for a song simply because it's on eBay! I've never paid top dollar for anything I've bought on eBay whereas you do it all the time in the real world. It's a great venue for buyers but becoming ROTTEN for sellers every passing day due to fee increases and stringent eBay policies!
posted on June 6, 2001 06:38:09 AM new
Another factor to consider where antiques and collectibles values are concerned is the way certain areas of collecting "heat up" and "cool down".
Sometimes it's Roseville pottery. For six months or a year it can be worth it's weight in gold, then...........it's not.
Or McCoy pottery, or collector plates, or any one of thousands of different areas of collecting. The market changes dramatically depending on what is in demand at any given time. I collect antique marbles. The old hand made marbles used to be valued extremely high (some still are) BUT right now, it's the early american machine made marbles that are hot. Keeping up with the changing market is all part of the challenge of selling antiques and collectibles.
Another problem is fraud. Whenever a certain area of collectible gets "hot" and stays "hot" long enough, somebody comes along and starts producing fakes (er..reproductions..a fake is usually a "reproduction" with the tag removed). This happened to Roseville pottery a while back. Cast iron items have also been plagued by this disease. When this happens it shakes the confidence of the collector and cools off sales.
Nothing simple about dealing in antiques and collectibles. It's definitely not for everyone and these pitfalls existed long before eBay ever did.
posted on June 6, 2001 06:41:18 AM new
and it could be that prices have settled to more realistic levels.
I think Amy has said it best though, supply and demand.
Ain't Life Grand...
posted on June 6, 2001 07:31:30 AM new
It is more of saturation than prices being at a more realistic level. For instance I get much more at antique shows than on eBay. I went from selling $1,000 - $2000 a week on eBay to no auctions today and spending $500 a week. No sense in letting twelvepole get all of the steals.
Just won a Baccarat decanter for $20 from someone who started at $1 no reserve and sold it at show for $250. Someone was dumb enough to put a piece of art pottery up for $200 on BIN and I got $900 at a show.
Ebay is no longer a venue for small sellers or antique and collectibles dealers.
One Roseville vase I sold 3 years ago on eBay for $200 can only muster bids for around $75-$100 today but still sells for $150-$200 at shows.
posted on June 6, 2001 07:47:36 AM new
Excellent thread - thank you.
Like Amy - there is supply and demand rule.
With eBay underwriting the Antiques Roadshow, more eyes - buyers and sellers - will appear.
Attend a live auction, watch some of the ridiculous prices paid by new eBay people. Then, to the same auction a few weeks later - these same new people have lowered their bids.
Burn and Learn.
While the shows still generate good sales, I've watched it slowly dwindle - had more than one person mention eBay prices.
eBay has also entered the maturing stage, where people who never paid attention before are starting to come on board.
While there are numerous things about eBay I dislike, they are between the devil and the hot place in a competitive market.
They're aware of how quickly the tide could turn. Site such as ePier and others are known only to a handful of people. Until they make a financial commitment to their own growth, I believe they'll stagnant.
Even here on Auction Watch, the number of participants has declined. Some have left the business, for others... its not even a comfortable distraction anymore.
posted on June 6, 2001 10:15:46 AM newCustomers come looking for quality, and get suckered in by the garish cheap junk. (A Rolexxx watch for $10.)
If the buyer is this mindless that they will get "suckered" in by the garish stuff they will never be able to distinquish a "quality" site.
Do you really believe that a quality site WON'T have fakes or junk?
Twin..where there is money to be made there will be those who prey on the gullible.
For example, Amazon Marketplace has less supply than Half.com and so Marketplace sellers tend to see slightly higher profits than Half sellers,
Without any proof (reliable studies and statistics) this is nothing more than a conclusion drawn from ancedotal statements. If there are statistics that half and amazon have given supporting this conclusion it would help if you would supply them so we can see if this statement is actually true.
eBay's turning out to be a dumping ground, a low priced flea market, the ultimate thrift store,
From the posts I have seen here at AW, ebay's roots ARE a giant fles market. Many people here seem to be bemoaning the fact that it seems ebay doesn't want to be a flea market anymore but instead wants to "upgrade" its image.
so which IS the evil...ebay upgrading its image to one of a purveyor of quality higher end antiques OR ebay being a giant flea market?
generating profits for VERY FEW except eBay the company.
Again...this conclusion is based on WHAT? Until we see reliable statistics and not just ancedotal stories or "opinion", there is no way this can be accepted as fact.
Some of the stuff on eBay is FAR from junk, but even the quality items sell for much less than what you'd pay in the brick and mortar world.
From my observations over the past 3+ years, most antique and collectible items have sold for less than B&M antique stores/malls for all of that 3+ years. Ebay is closer to a real life auction house where, on average, the items sell for about 1/2 to 3/4 the retail price. That has been the draw for the buyer...get it cheaper on ebay than at an antique store. The second draw has been the variety...the buyer can find at ebay the item he has to search many real life sores for.
Just won a Baccarat decanter for $20 from someone who started at $1 no reserve and sold it at show for $250. Someone was dumb enough to put a piece of art pottery up for $200 on BIN and I got $900 at a show.
Same things happen in real life antique stores. It has nothing to do with "falling prices" on ebay.
In the local newspaper the other day was an article on collecting. There were inteviews with three local dealers...each was asked about the best buy they ever made AND the biggest mistake they made. Each one talked about the item that they had not recognized as valuable and sold for a tiny amount only to find out the buyer had sold the item for MUCH more. In one case the item had been sold for under $50 and later resold for over $4000.
A local auctioneer I patronize had a small oil painting hanging on his wall for months. He felt it had some value and tried to sell it for about $1000..there was no interest. He stopped trying and just let it hang there as decoration. One auction evening a customer asked to have it brought to the block and when it was, purchased it for $500. The auctioneer was pleased.
Later, that customer sold it to an art dealer for $5000...the dealer consigned it to Sotheby's where it sold for close to $250,000.
There have seen stories from ebay sellers here at AW and at the ebay boards that tell of ebay sellers who have picked up items for a song at real life antique shops and sold the items for big money on ebay.
The key to this is knowledge. When you know something the other guy doesn't you can get bargains and turn it into good profits. It is NOT ebay specific...it can occur anywhere...even at those shows there will be things underpriced that a knowledgable buyer can make a profit on.
Ebay is what we make of it. Buy smart and the seller will make a profit. Buy poorly and the seller will be on these boards complaining that ebay is no good anymore.
[ edited by amy on Jun 6, 2001 10:18 AM ]
posted on June 6, 2001 11:09:03 AM new
Indeed, my experience on both sides of the fence roughly tracks the original post's stats.
I'm holding even roughly on total $$ vs. last year, but it takes more items and being ever-pickier about what to offer.
One thing that should be mentioned: Look at how eBay has adjusted its fee structure in the past year or so. We now have tons more optional fees and a 5-cent hike on the insertion fee. In other words, they've been putting emphasis on charging WHETHER AN ITEM SELLS OR NOT.
Even Half.com, with its free listings and commissions on final value, has moved that way with its last shipping-charge hike where it charged buyers 30 cents more for one-pound Media Mail but only passed on 17 cents of that (the exact ammount of the increase) to sellers. So they're pocketing a fixed 13 cents extra per transaction under the false pretense of a postal rate increase. They probably have plans to go to charging buyers another extra 25 cents in July if the Media Mail rate should go up as much as one cent.
So much for what Meg used to say about "Our success depends on your success." Wall Street told her that wasn't such a good idea. The new motto is "Our success depends on maintaining a dominant market position so people have to pay our prices."
posted on June 6, 2001 11:43:29 AM new
I haven't noticed a drop in final sales prices because I just sell what's in demand at the time. If demand seems low I sell another item. In the collectible market you just get used the roller coaster ride.
The TIAS study probably reflects sellers who attempt to sell the same stuff in good times or bad. If you closely look over the poll, most sellers have been with ebay for at least a year, so it wouldn't be heavily weighted down with new weekend sellers clearing out their garage and closets.
posted on June 6, 2001 12:44:27 PM new
CaptainKirk, I love your posts. I really agree with you most of the time, but not this time. And it isn't just one study. It's every study.
The only voice disputing the numbers is eBay, who claims the "average" selling price of items has increased. Well, sure, if you account for the fact that eBay started selling cars and real estate (big ticket items) last year.
And BTW, AuctionBytes did publish results that tracked individual types of items, like the average selling price of Svarofsky (sp?) crystal over the past year.
Every study says the same thing. There may be some sellers getting the same amount or higher, but I don't believe that is the general case.
Amy, "Do you really believe that a quality site WON'T have fakes or junk ... where there is money to be made there will be those who prey on the gullible."
Yes, but smaller sites can set stricter policies. Most people believe that eBay's feedback forum and other policies make it easy for fraud to occur. That is what I meant by a specialty site establishing a reputation. Specialty sites may make selling requirements much more stringent (for example, ID verify for all sellers). I grant that this kind of change will not happen overnight. As for "mindless buyers," I will repeat my opinion that it is less desirable for quality sellers to be under the same roof as tons of garish junk listings. Furthermore, there are some buyers who (like me) are still willing to pay a premium for top-quality merchandise. Many buyers make purchases based solely on the reputation of the dealer, and eBay isn't exactly known for its straight deals.
I sell auction management software. It's no-brainer stuff, something most any high school kid in a computer programming class could do. And that's exactly what's happening. Compared to a couple of years ago, there are 20 times as many listings for the same item. Add to that the fact that many of the new sellers are sharks. (For example, how many auction management tools are sold with the guarantee of "free patches for life," and how many sellers actually honor that guarantee?)
Sellers with some expertise are probably still doing well on eBay, but the many eBay "middleman" non-professional sellers are both saturating the market and getting far less for their items. As for me, I draw the line at Ginsu knives and fat burning pills. Perhaps that's why my sales are sucking mud right now.
posted on June 6, 2001 12:51:09 PM new
I know the prices have been dropping. I sell pretty much the same type collectibles and vintage stuff I did 3 years ago. What I get for my items this year has been around 40-60 percent less than I did for the same item then. And it isn't just a fuke auction, the consistent sellers are still selling they are just selling for less. Definitely due to the number of same type items on ebay at any given time. I don't think it is the economy.
posted on June 6, 2001 01:20:30 PM new
Tell me Twin how id verification is going to stop a seller from misrepresenting his merchandise? How will that stop a seller from selling a fake antique? How will that stop a seller from not mentioning the crack or chip in an item? How will that make the seller ship the item?
Unless the site previews the item to be listed and previews the ads there is no way any site can have rules that will stop the scammers from coming on. And if they WERE able to set up enough rules to stop the scammers you may not want to be selling in such a restrictive, big brother environment.
You mention the "glut" in the field you are selling in. How will another site be able to stop that? Once a site starts to have the traffic that supports a profitable business for the sellers many more sellers will come on board. Again..it is part and parcel of the free marketplace. Success means others will jump on the bandwagon.
If you are hoping that a niche site for anitques and collectibles will mean there will be only a small amount of items offered then you are dreaming...if the site is successfull it will soon becaome just as glutted as ebay. There is no way for us to have a site that is only for us and the johnny-come-lately aren't allowed in...not if we want it to succeed. The buyers want variety, not a small, limited offering site.
I'm not saying another site that is limited to antiques and collectibles can't succeed...but don't expect it to be free of scammers, junk, glutted categories, rules that some of the users hate, etc. There is no utopia out there, nor do I think one can be created.
posted on June 6, 2001 01:30:02 PM newDropping eBay Prices?
Depends on the item. My final sales prices have been fairly stable over the entire time I've been selling on eBay (3 years), and the prices for the kinds of items I buy are somewhat higher now than they were 3 years ago.
Of course, if you're not selling those items, this isn't much of a consolation...
