posted on June 27, 2001 09:50:40 AM new
eBays Falling Down and It Can't Seem to Get Up
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I was just looking at the year to date auction numbers at MedVed.
The trend line looks as if eBay is falling down and it can't get up.
Yes, the numbers are subject to interperation. BIN has the effect of showing fewer overall listings while the actual sales results are positive.
But two category listings inflate the numbers and all the big companies like ReturnBuy, which is partially owned by eBay, are listing thousands of items which were not present in large number last year.
The trend last year was up. The trend this year is down. Nearing the point where they will drop below 5,000,000 for the first time in nearly a year ( excluding the annual slump immediatly following Christmas).
And listing numbers don't show profit or average price or even sell through rate. So there is much more to the story.
And less auctions suggest that independent sellers might not be doing well. That's certainly not anything for us to be pleased about.
But sellers have options, not all we would like, but we have choices. Other venues and varying means of earning income.
This is eBay's Flagship site. The core of their profitability and what most people think of when someone says eBay.
I'm sure the spin doctors could explain why less is more and fewer is better and even how this is really more profitable for everybody. I don't believe it.
With poor performance at many foreign venues, a struggle with acquisitions becoming profitable and little but Half.com showing positive growth, eBay is starting to look like the classic example of a company that ignored the needs of it's core customers and expanded beyond it's capacity.
The customers are waiting eBay. Deal with their needs. They want opportunity and will succeed. With or without you.
posted on June 27, 2001 06:13:17 PM new
UP eBay Up!
Even if it takes a Free Listing Day!
And now would be a good time as it will mask the beta testing of the new Gegy site and the live launch of Internet Pioneers on July 4th, which is designed to be the first true co-op general item site.
Slow search, down time and general confusion, here we come.
But I'll be there. The chance to reach into eBays pocket and get some of my money back is a chance I won't miss.
posted on June 27, 2001 07:29:00 PM new
What's all this hype about gegy-gagy! There are so many other good sites out there already - what's so special about this one except for the pukey colored ijit on the title page?
posted on June 27, 2001 08:13:11 PM new
I love it, I love it, I love it.
Good analysis, Ray. Thanks for the link too.
BTW, what was that huge spike in Sept last year? Anybody know?
Gegy IS different. They've been listening to sellers and IMO have already created a "community" and they're not even open yet. They have an advertising budget to attract buyers. They are very different from ebay in all the right ways. OAUA has a discussion board (Open General Discussion -- membership not required) and Gegy has its own forums where discussions are ongoing as well. Anyone the least bit interested in seeing ebay have some real competition owe it to themselves to check out the discussions at minimum. Might even sign up for beta testing, if you're so inclined. I have.
posted on June 27, 2001 09:45:15 PM new
One thing that everyone is forgetting. If you post a 7 day auction now when will it end? 7/4!!. I wouldn't want one of my items ending anytime from 7/3 to 7/9 Thats why the free posting day. However this does show the impact of the Mom & Pop listers on ebay as the big guys want thier $7.00 per hour folks to crank out the listings no matter what. Ed
edhdsn
[ edited by edhdsn on Jun 27, 2001 09:48 PM ]
posted on June 27, 2001 09:50:19 PM new
When they went public and got flooded with listings was the beginning of the downfall. My sales have been falling ever since the fall of 99. There are just not enough buyers to support 5 million listings.
posted on June 27, 2001 09:51:48 PM new
Right good point - go for 10 days, especially this time of year.
Back to the ebay valuation IMHO ebay needs a good dose of reality. Ebay is notorious for unreliability in terms of availability, it has made arguably bad decisions with Butterfields and half.com, sales are down during the summer in many collectibles categories and the business model definitely has a limit to where it can go.
For those people that are gullible to the likes of Mary Meeker and Blodgett perhaps ebay seems like a good deal, but you can bet the sharks are circling waiting to take their innocent investment dollars just like they have done with everything else in the dot gones.
