posted on September 27, 2001 03:27:30 PM
If eBay ever lost its grip, it would go something like this. What do you think?
On March 25, 2002, the auction business will change together.
eBay has a virtual monopoly on the internet auction business. They practically invented the concept and they grew by leaps and bounds thanks to their foresight in allowing the members to have great freedoms when buying and selling items. That wild, wild west atmosphere couldn't last forever though. They needed to reign in some of the behavior.
Unfortunately, their attempts to control the process have gone too far. Strong-arming users into using Billpoint, hamstringing users from cross-promoting their businesses, and unwanted re-arranging of their categories have pushed too many buyers and sellers to the edge.
eBay has such a strong presence, moving one's own auctions to another site has little affect. What is needed is a mass movement. On Leave eBay Day, or LeaveDay for short, we propose that buyers and sellers, en masse, move to another auction site with rules that are more flexible and better protect the buyers and sellers.
The case to have sellers move is an easy one, because it is sellers who are obviously getting squeezed. The harm to buyers is much more difficult to quantify (is it better to have private email addresses and not be contacted about similar products? Is that a decision buyers should make themselves?). And having only 1 marketplace is probably a benefit to buyers. It would take a bold strike to convince them they would be better off w/o eBay; this could mean free shipping & handling, cash inducements ($10? $20? a 10% rebate for first $200 in purchases?), or another step which would clearly be in the buyers best interest.
Commit now to move all your auctions (buying and selling) for 2 weeks to a new auction site. If it works, don't look back; if it doesn't, 2 week of eBay sales will have been lost.
This won't be easy. In addition to buyers and sellers, those who support them (Auctive, AuctionWatch, etc.) will have to update their tools in concert. And the new auction site will have to have terms that are favorable AND stable. What those will be will be decided by the community of buyers and sellers, along with the auction site management; not by the auction site alone.
So this is how it works. The community decides what rules to have, keeping the best of eBay (verified buyers, verified sellers, payment options, picture hosting), while proposing to eliminate the anti-competitive features that have been instituted (banning links to non-eBay stores, restricting links to item information). Of course, any site will insist on fees, which is fine; the fee structure will be a major point of negotiation, I imagine.
Once the rules have been largely decided, auction sites (such as Yahoo!, Amazon, etc.) will be approached. We will settle on one site, and start preparing to move, while the new site will do the same. I've outlined a rough timeline:
9/25 Leave eBay Day! movement is born, initial communication links established. Members are encouraged to learn more, become involved.
10/25 Committed core builds robust communications structure, including website, message boards and voting structure. Timeline is revised and detailed. Outline of rules are proposed.
11/25 Preliminary auction site rules are decided upon, negotation links with auction sites established. Members asked to pledge support to winning site. Timeline is revised and detailed.
12/25 Site rules finalized. Serious negotiations begin. eBay support vendors encouraged to begin preparing new listing, hosting, and payment tools. Timeline is revised and detailed.
1/25 Auction site selected, fee structure put in place. Vigorous effort by auction support vendore to create new listing tools. Timeline is revised and detailed.
2/25 Mass marketing begins! Winning auction site and large vendors pledge to spend millions advertising in anticipation of new auction site. By now, some vendors will begin to list, but marketing message emphasizes 3/24. Grass-roots marketing begins in earnest. Timeline is revised and detailed.
3/25 Leave eBay Day! All members stop listing on eBay for 2 weeks, list on new site for 2 weeks. Buyers encouraged to follow sellers. Massive one-day marketing push (newspaper, TV, radio, email, web, cash register receipts, billboards, blimps) about great new auction site.
4/25 By now, Leave eBay Day! will be dead and buried, or a rousing success. If it succeeds, new organizations will arise that can better address the new, competitive state of the auction world.
If you make your living on eBay, don't risk your livelihood by breaking their rules, they might kick you off. Instead, use other means to spread the word.
posted on September 27, 2001 03:56:48 PM
Do you really think that if another auction site were to somehow take over from ebay, they wouldn't do a lot of the same things to solidify their position?
I have to believe that those would would consider leaving ebay are in the very, very small minority. I don't like some of the stuff the do either, but the only way I am going to leave ebay is if I don't get the results I want from my auctions, not because I am unhappy with a policy change. As long as the policy change does not affect my sales (or affect them too much) I will stick with Ebay. I certainly would be glad to move, but not until there is another viable site.
posted on September 27, 2001 06:54:04 PM
Yeah, if another site had the lead, they would much the same thing. The point is, by negotaiating and moving en masse, the winning site would have to agree to freeze their terms for, say, 5 years. Besides, eBay wouldn't wither and die, most likely. At which point, the auction sites would compete against each other, and probably run themselves more efficiently.
As far as leaving, no one's going to do it unless they believe it's in their best interest, that's why it makes such little sense for a seller (or buyer) to move now.
The risk in moving is that your auctions won't sell. The risk in staying is that eBay continues to change the rules to squeeze more money out of the system for themselves.
posted on September 27, 2001 07:15:14 PM
My guess is that eBay has the plan wrapped nicely in A4A. I have never seen any plan so overwhelmingly given a big thumbs down than this one. It has all the telltale signs: one payment method, no seller contact, a shove- it-down-your-throat interface and it was instituted practically overnight. It is surprisingly like Half.com in its style. This is the future of eBay and sellers do not have to do anything to help make eBay into the Microsoft of the internet auction world--it's already here and paid with our fees. They have the monetary chutzpah to enact it no matter what. They already committed to 100 days of greatly reduced income to put it over. It will just continue to go down this route and people will just give into it or leave. They will just rebuild on this model--most small sellers will be out of business by then and they can raise the rates in January to recoup their charitable losses and hold the fort down until the business picks up again with new sellers. My guess is that the insertion rates will begin at $.40-50.
posted on September 27, 2001 08:47:05 PM
Where's yahoo in all of this? I think they have enough power and creativity to compete, but they're not really doing anything!
posted on September 27, 2001 09:41:35 PM
I am glad to see someone trying to come up with a concept for change. Nothing substantial will change until there is a second auction "venue" that can compete with Ebay for its customer base (both sellers and buyers).
Viable competition is the only thing that will "force" Ebay to "care more" about the needs and concerns of it's sellers.
I do well on Ebay - but I pray everyday for a company to take the #2 slot in order to breed some healthy competition that will naturally spin off benefits to both the sellers and buyers.
I am hard pressed to think of any other private enterprise that does not have a competition. It will happen! Hey - a highschool teacher started a small phone company and ended up buying MCI - stranger things have happened.
posted on September 28, 2001 12:10:59 PM
Well, I'm not a regular seller or regular buyer. I've been reading these AW boards lately, and it sounded like there's so much discontent with eBay's fees and policies that I figured someone was already trying to create an alternative. I had said to my friends that eBay was ripe for a fall and to avoid the stock.
Now, I am realizing that most sellers will not fight back. It's like boiling a frog-- throw a frog into boiling water, and it jumps out. Put a frog in cold water and boil it, bye-bye frog! (I have no idea if this is true, and please, do not try it at home.)
I always figured that this was eBay's plan, and it is a good one, b/c as long as not too many people leave at the same time, they hold onto their position. I thought eBay was going too fast and was creating the possibility of revolt. With all the carping about A4A, sellers must be ready to fight back.
I was wrong. eBay really does have the sellers over a barrel. They will suck more and more money out of the system for themselves, and will probably be succesful at it. Maybe the stock is a good buy.
