posted on October 25, 2001 06:05:47 AM
Oh-oh, if that's true that doesn't give a good reflection of the economy and consumer confidence. If you're right the markets will tank when they get a load of Walmart missing their #s! The market is trying to price in a pick-up in demand and for the economy by early next year. Walmart's as good a barometer as any of consumer confidence and they never seem to miss #s. If they and lesser retailers are predicting a poor last quarter of the year, look out! Then the markets haven't bottomed and we can expect more layoffs and bankruptcies to come. We probably won't find out how truly bad it was until sometime after December when earnings warnings occur and #s are released. Some of us are already seeing lackluster demand and consumer belt-tightening with poor sales on eBay for non-essentials.
posted on October 25, 2001 07:18:40 AM
Some were depending on the consumer to lighten the impact of the down turn. Looks like it isn't going to happen.
Another note along those lines, the tax rebate seems to have not been spent by the consumer either. According to economists, consumers saved the tax rebate checks rather than spend it.
Costs for heightened security in transportation, business, and even the mails are also coming in the pipeline.
posted on October 25, 2001 07:27:18 AM
Right after the attacks, there were concerns the public was going to avoid the malls for fear of more attacks on public places.
I thought this might mean enhanced on-line sales.
Now that some seem to be fearful of the mail, doesn't look so perky for on-line sales either.
Beginning to look like a tough season ahead whether you are B&M or on-line.
posted on October 25, 2001 07:40:30 AM
I recently heard on the news that on-line sales are currently up 20% from last year. They expect online sales to do very well this year.
posted on October 25, 2001 07:44:21 AM
I think the B&M have the advantage though. It's too expensive to buy a $5.00 item on-line then have to spend another $5.00 to have it mailed to you.
If the big stores have, in fact, cut their orders to their suppliers, it won't mean less spending by me, but rather simply spending on the stuff they do bring in.
Can't tell the kids "Sorry, no Christmas this year because some idiots are terrorizing the USA".
posted on October 25, 2001 08:16:51 AM
Some observations on sales this year
I just spoke to a wholesale supplier of incense today on the phone. They said their sales are way down this year. My friend, who owns the company told me, normally this time of year they are filling orders for the holidays. They are very slow right now and very concerned. The are hoping people will order even if it is last minute for the holidays but they are not very optimistic. Normally they get some last minute "I need it now" type orders but this year they are wondering will the orders come at all.
I also received a list of books for sale from one of the remainder companies through e-mail that I buy from. I wrote back telling my sales rep business was slow right now and I would not be ordering this time around but to keep me in mind for the future. She wrote back "Ours are down also. I think the whole country is reeling from the first shock wave and now the anthrax threat. Who knows what to do next?"
My dad’s girlfriend owns an upscale handbag store in Scottsdale, AZ these bags sell from $450.00 plus. For those not familiar with Scottsdale it is know for being the "wealthy part of town" with stores that cater to people with a higher than average income base. My dad’s girlfriend’s sales are way down this year just like most businesses so it doesn’t matter if your talking about Wal-Mart or upscale stores. People are either holding back and waiting or sales will be mediocre this year at best. Only after the first of the year when we start seeing reports of how Christmas sales were will we really know the state of the economy.
posted on October 25, 2001 08:32:46 AM
This reflects my thoughts as well. My clothing sales are doing very well right now, which I take as a sign that people are looking for bargains.
OTOH, I'm also selling low-end antiques (primarily silverplate flatware), and sales have been okay but not great. Since most of these items sell for $10 and less, they are a small indulgence and not a very expensive one. Also, people are trying to fill out their patterns for holiday entertaining, so I expect that sales will drop further after the new year, when all that is over with.
I think we need to keep the economy in mind, and adjust our sales plans to suit. I'm looking for more necessities to sell, and temporarily phasing out the small luxuries.
posted on October 25, 2001 08:34:12 AM
450 dollars for a handbag?
350 for a designer scarf?
100 dollars for a bottle of wine??
did you see the number of airplanes parked in moldavi desert last nite news?did you hear the pilot pleading for us to fly as it is safe?
our post office clerks said they dont expect to be too busy this xmas and they worry about thier jobs too!!!!!
a few months ago a study shows mortgage payment delinquency was high,higher than the late 1970-early 1980s when interest rate was high,the reason behind it is due to the sheer number of first time home buyers.
down here,real estate developers have been offering new homes with no down payment if you have job and good credit rating,they will even capitalise the closing costs-points,legal fee & misc fee into the mortgage loan and lower the income requirement.
skip the 450 dollars handbag ,and save it for making payments towards cc bills,student loan,car payment,mortgage payment,association fee,property tax,these are the bills affluent middle class folks have.
posted on October 25, 2001 08:38:32 AM
last xmas,ups allotted number of trailers to their mail order customers and found that 2/3 of the trailers were needed to do the job .
some of their xmas help were laid off due to lack of work .
i wonder what their plan is for this xmas??
posted on October 25, 2001 08:47:04 AM
From the B&M side it isn't shaping up to be a good year. In our area, sales were below mediocre at best all summer according to virtually every shop owner I talked with.....tourists picked up enough small stuff to keep the bills paid...the locals didn't spend as in past years.
I am seeing good traffic thru the front door, but precious little going out the door with them. We are a military & summer tourist town so we have the double whammy right now....and the layoffs & overtime cutbacks at retail, wholesale, & manufacturing have all but dried up the customers "fun money"......
Keeping a stiff upper lip that Santa fever will kick in after Halloween....
but the first of the year worries me too! I may be having one heck of a sale in January!
posted on October 25, 2001 10:24:04 AM
There are a lot of problems in the economy that aren't quite yet visible.
I know the guard call-ups have hurt a lot of guard families finanacially. They won't be making many non-necessity purchases.
The Post Office will probably have to end its quasi-private track plans and be folded completely back into government operations and budgeting. They were running a huge projected deficit before the anthrax attacks.
1/2 of the airlines may be bankrupt by the new year.
As this deepens, I don't think online sales will be spared.
posted on October 25, 2001 10:40:27 AM
I'm not going to go with all the doom and gloom. Sales in our B & M store in Sept. were equal to last year so we were happy.
So far this month they are 12% higher than last year this time.
We had ordered quite a bit of our giftware for the holiday season back in July and August and already had some orders in before the disaster happened.
We are still ordering specialty items and we are hoping that customers will want to make this a special holiday season this year just because of all the bad happenings. So far they are buying with that attitude and we are promoting it every chance we get.
We are trying to make the best of a bad situation and I am hoping others will also do that.
posted on October 25, 2001 10:53:17 AM
I really can't let one person or business speak to the state of the market. If someone cuts the orders by half, does that mean they have stuff left over from last year, overstock from recent declining sales, or they simply have a history of overstocking and are ordering more on a just-in-time basis which is the way many modern stores work? While Walmart and Kmart represent a significant market share, they do not represent the market at large.
Many people will travel less and spend more buying this year than in the past. eBay should do well this year if nothing too scary happens with this terrorist war.
posted on October 25, 2001 12:02:00 PM
I would be interested in knowing if the Christmas orders that were supposedly cut in half were all orders from all suppliers, one order from one supplier, or for just one product line from one supplier.
posted on October 25, 2001 01:00:53 PM
Sorry, I do not know what the size of the original order was ... that is not a question that I would feel comfortable asking any business owner.
This is a supplier for my B & M ... the items would be found in the toy department. I must admit, however, that they would be impulse purchases.
Sorry, I do not want to say here exactly what the item is.
posted on October 25, 2001 03:51:30 PM
My sister is one of 4 managers at our local walmart supercenter. Sales there aren't hurt at that store at all, they are doing as well as always. We were talking about it the other day, she said they can't wait to get all the Halloween candy/costumes out of the way to make room for all of the Christmas stuff being delivered. I am in a rural area, & that store sells several hundred thousand dollars in merchandise every week.
posted on October 25, 2001 05:22:04 PM
We do website sales, weekend event sales, ebay, and Sept. 1 opened a brick and mortar. August sales slumped for us but was predicted in advance. On September 1 sales picked right up and were terrific up to September 10.
During the month ..... after 9-11 ..... I was thinking doom and gloom and that we were doiing really poorly; however, when the month end credit card statements came in from our merchant accounts they we about equal to last September.
Now I would have preferred growth but under the circumstances things are fine....we did not slip back. This month we have done as well as last year at this time.
We had hoped for a terrific holiday season (but then didn't we all) but will be content to maintain in the face of the current world condition.
posted on October 25, 2001 05:59:08 PM
I have worked for Walmart and K-Mart as well as Ivey's in the past.All their buying does depend on sales. Unfortunatly, they have been caught up in companys sending them non-sellable crap that they don't even order for so long,that it it starting to catch up with them.I could see that problem 10 years ago.Ordering everything a year in advance,hasn't help them either.They need to get back to the basics.
We probably won't find out how truly bad it was until sometime after December when earnings warnings occur and #s are released. Some of us are already seeing lackluster demand and consumer belt-tightening with poor sales on eBay for non-essentials.
