posted on June 29, 2002 03:04:28 PM
I have read that despite Napster, music sales continued to grow. That is, they did until last year, when music sales fell for the first time. The convential wisdom has been that this has been due to pirate music services on the net.
I just cleaned out my bookcase and put about a hundred books for sale on Amazon. I also just bought a dozen books on Half.com. All of these were used.
I wonder. When you consider the huge number of Cd's, cassettes, and books available cheaply on Amazon and Half.com, perhaps the decrease in sales (new) is due to the huge availability on these 2 services (and others).
Example: There are zillions of sets of Chronicles of Narnia (7 books) and The Lord of the Rings (3 books, 4 with The Hobbit) on sale for $10.00 used. New, they cost about $30.00. Such a difference has to mean a lot of recycling goes on. The same is true with the more expensive technical books - huge savings.
Has anybody read any news reports with an analysis of pirating vs. used sales? How many items are on Half.com? Someone said here that it was over 250 million. Is that true and how would we find out?
Of course, this would include Ebay, which has a lot of these, also.
I checked a couple of music CD's I bought from Amazon last year for $15.00 each. Now you can get them for $7.00 used on Amazon, maybe even less on Half.com. I would certainly not buy new, next time.
Perhaps the recycling of good CD's and books is doing more to effect sales than pirating.
posted on June 29, 2002 04:42:55 PM
The music industry claims 5%-%10 in lost music sales from pirated music. Some critics claim the drop is due to the overall economy. But no one ever mentions the re-cycled market on half or amazon when considering the sales drop.
There was an article a while back about authors protesting Amazon for advertising used books on the same page as the new book. Amazon told them too bad. I haven't heard of any study of how Amazon's set-up has effected new book sales. But I bet Amazon knows.
I think there shouldn't be any doubt that the used maket opened up through the internet has had some effect. I haven't bought new music or books from Amamzon in 2 years.
Once the general public gets the idea to wait a little while and save %50 or more by buying used, it should have a significant impact.
Many digital music and book publisheres are also looking at a limited use format that allows the music to be played only so many times or the digital book to only be accessible for acertain amount of time to combat the growing used market.
It also takes some resolve to pay $15 for a CD when you can download the music for free and burn it to a CDR and play it in your car or on your stero system. Some music is available on P2P systems before it is even released to the stores.
I suppose that some people are also ripping factory CDs, copying the music from them onto CDRs, and then selling the factory pressed CD.
posted on June 29, 2002 05:03:56 PM
Three or four years ago where would you try to sell a bunch of books or music CDs that you got at a super low price? Most sellers would replay "either a garage sale or the flea market". Now there is Half.com, eBay, Yahoo, Amazon, etc. Not only that, but to sell them you have to have the lowest price among a lot of competition. I've been buying boxes of factory sealed music CDs for 15 to 30 cents a CD from failed rap or hip hop record companies and can go as low as $1.75 on Half and still make a nice profit on volume. Nobody would pay more than a dollar at a garage sale or flea market for these CD as they are 5 year old rap CDs. The potential selling cyber arenas of today are greatly affecting prices of music and book item today in my opinion.
posted on June 29, 2002 06:30:43 PM
Interesting topic. Rolling Stone magazine recently ran an article on this recent drop in sales. While the music industry does seem to be in a lull due to the recession and few new "hot" acts, there does seem to be evidence that Napster and other online sources are biting into the record industry's profits. In particular, the article noted that CD sales at music stores near college towns was down twice as much as the overall industry drop. They interviewed some students, and the cause was obvious - a lot of kids using the college's high speed internet to download entire albums, then burn copies for anybody who wants them. And while Napster had always argued that their service helped people sample music that they might not otherwise hear, resulting in actual purchases of CDs, the kids that were interviewed mostly admitted that there was no reason to buy the CD if they already had a burned copy.
Just prior to the internet explosion, the big issue was selling used CDs. A lot of the small, independent did (and still do) sell used CDs. The record companies, realizing that - unlike records or tapes - a used CD was the same as a new CD to many consumers. The music companies were so worried about the impact of the used CDs, that some of them threatened to withhold promotional material for new releases to these independent stores in order to "punish" them.
Anyway, while this doesn't pertain directly to Half and other online resale sites, the impact is undoubtedly the same. And I'm sure the same can be said for the book and video/DVD market as well. I think all of these industries will become more reliant on pushing and hyping the latest product, since the sales of the so-called "deep" inventory is what will really suffer from competition with the used venues. I would also expect more aggressive and similarly futile moves by the media companies to curtail the resale markets - or at least attempt to get a chunk of it for themselves.
posted on June 30, 2002 07:13:41 PM
The music companies are hopelessly mired in the past, with no imagination, little taste for developing new acts and letting the radio stations collect legal payola for playing their music.
Their sales are heading down more than 20% this year, though the figures have not gone public yet. I read some advance reports in a trade publication.
Here's the real reason:
DVDs. When you can buy a dvd with a movie and an hour or two of special features for the same price as a CD, you have to wonder what the problem is. I would rather spend $15 for a DVD than a CD. Wouldn't you?
I think we will see the end of the CD business as we have known it in the next decade. It has already begun.
posted on June 30, 2002 07:35:16 PMThe music companies are hopelessly mired in the past, with no imagination, little taste for developing new acts and letting the radio stations collect legal payola for playing their music.
You're right, the music industry doesn't support new/marginal artists. Those that get support tend to get developed as one-hit wonders rather than developing a fan base. Any industry that signs Mariah Carey to a 10 year contract, then pays her $28M to go away, after which she gets signed to another label for $20M, deserves what's coming to them.
posted on July 1, 2002 08:12:34 AM
The market for used and new is different. I would never pay $25 for a new book. I'd wait and buy it for $5. So the book industry has lost nothing on me. I also don't buy new CDs because I only want a couple songs off the CD, so I'd rather use a Napster type servce and compile my own album.
Other people are different, they want new; they want to buy from a big reputable company like Amazon.
posted on July 1, 2002 08:33:46 AM
Doesn't the easy and inexpensive availability to buy almost new books and CDs on eBay and other online auction sites make more and more buyers want to wait a month and get the item at a fraction of the new cost? That has to be hurting the book and music industries.
posted on July 1, 2002 08:48:35 AM
bidsbids you hit the nail on the head i buy 95% of my music on half.com as it is soo cheap and if i want a few songs just use a napster type service.
