posted on July 18, 2002 05:00:54 PMConsidering the Stock Market plunge today I guess sales are going to be down for awhile.
Contrary to popular belief, the Dow Jones is not reflective of the market as a whole, which is still doing quite well. Most companies are reporting better than expected earnings for the 2nd quarter.
posted on July 18, 2002 05:07:57 PM
My auctions have had a similar pattern.
rewassago, even if companies are reporting good earnings (which many are not), psychology, accounting, the strong dollar and whatever are driving this market down, down, down. I think it is affecting eBay sales. The Nasdaq is at 1997 levels, which means that all those people who jumped in the market in the last 5 years are hurting.
posted on July 18, 2002 05:12:46 PM
Considering that if you told someone 20 years ago that the Dow Jones would be above 8000, they would have been ROFL, the market is still doing well.
I have been hearing nothing but good numbers from most of the major corporations all week.
The Dow Jones and Nasdaq falling are pure psychology - the people in it for the long haul are not hurting, they are buying all the cheap stocks.
Besides, how many people who buy things on eBay even listen to the market reports, let alone own stock?
posted on July 18, 2002 08:33:08 PM
80 million Americans are in the stock market.
The lay offs, and loss of wealth in the market is and will have an effect, even on eBay.
The "long term" investors are also impacted, albeit psychological, because of the "wealth effect". Looking at a healthy 401K statement makes one feel OK about spending on eBay and elsewhere. Seeing half of your 401K disappear tends to make one shrink from making unnecessary purchases.
When WalMart has shrinking sales, eBay can't be far behind. eBay is just a different venue, it is not on another planet. The same rules of economics also apply to eBay.
But eBay won't drop like a rock, the listings will level off and begin to dwindle as more and more listings end without sales.
One thing eBay doesn't generally feature in their report is the sell through rate. That is the most important figure to assess whether the venue will continue to grow or will level off.
posted on July 19, 2002 11:19:03 AM
My sales are way down this month. By about 50% Hope they pick up soon. This is a good time to buy for the fall thou. I Need to try some new selling tactics but I.m to lazy.LOL
Maybe tomorrow!!
posted on July 19, 2002 12:46:47 PM
Although my Antique & Colletible On-Line sales seem to be down, my B & M sales are very good. I do think the psycology that is affecting the Stock Market does affect the auction sites. But there are other factors that are also slowing sales, it's summer everybody is outside playing, I'm not listing high $$ or high quality items, those will sit in my shop and will be listed in the fall, (if I still have them). I have also noticed the auctions I attend are realizing lower prices, and less people are attending.
My husband trades the futures markets, mostly grain, livestock and index options. However this week he has been buying alot of stock. He claims that so many stocks are undervalued that he just couldn't resist the bargains. Those who have the money are going to make BIG money when the market turns around.
posted on July 19, 2002 01:53:12 PM
Those who have money always make big money when the market turns around.
It is always the small investor that gets skinned. Most small investors don't have the stomach to weather a 2,3, or 10 year Bear market. If that Bear market arrives when you're about to retire, you're screwed. The retirement funds must pay out their defined benefits regardless of what the market is doing.
The major players are the fund managers. It is not their money they are investing and most of their capital comes from huge retirment funds that really don't have anyplace to go except the stock market. They can also set on a depressed stock market for years, all the while there will be more money streaming into the fund.
If you think the market is at its bottom, then it is time to buy.
I don't think the bottom is here yet. I think we're actually just now feeling the economic effects of 9-11 due to extra costs and delays in shipping and personal security measures and the "known" accounting scandels. NYC just announced a surprise $1 billion deficit after just completing a balanced budget 18 days ago - now they have to find more budget cuts. Two states have had to budget extra money into public employee retirement systems due to stock market losses. There is another shoe to drop 8-14-02, when CEOs of the major publicly owned corps must re-certify there financial reports or face jail- but they might face jail time anyway when they announce changes to their reports. One major bank announced yesterday that they shifted 3/4 of a $ billion to a subsidiary to hide the losses. We have yet to see the effects of our present mid east policies on world markets, which includes toppling at least one government.
There is way too much going on to stir the pot for the market to be at the bottom.
[ edited by REAMOND on Jul 19, 2002 01:59 PM ]
[ edited by REAMOND on Jul 19, 2002 02:00 PM ]
posted on July 19, 2002 02:12:15 PM
There is much more to effect the economy. The Fed budget is back in the RED, and the meeting of state governors said they needed money from the Feds and the Feds said they don't have it and don't count on any help. The Fed deficit sooner or later will impact interest rates, which will be a further hit on consumers.
There is no way eBay sales will be exempt from the economic problems that are going on. While eBay's listing numbers might continue to grow as more B&Ms enter the venue to try to bolster lagging sales, there will be fewer buyers due to these macro economic realities.
It is extemely naive to think that the US can fight a "war" and have all these companies cooking the books and not have major negative economic consequences.
posted on July 19, 2002 02:41:55 PM
REAMOND and jimtaxi, you got me nervous, I asked my husband if the market will go lower. His response was he didn't care which way it went. I really don't understand but he tried to explain what he called an "underlying put option'. I may not explain this right, but if the market goes down he makes money on the "put" and if it goes up he will make money off he stock. He says the ideal situation would be for the stock to fall, make money off the option, then hold the stock until the price increases. I know he spent many hours researching to find the right stocks. This is all he does, usually the in futures markets. He claims that the more volital the stock, the more $$$ to be made.
posted on July 19, 2002 03:06:44 PM
It's Christmas in July for me. Everything I'm selling, even the stuff I couldn't give away free a few months back, is selling. It's been that kind of year though, a couple terrible weeks followed by a few great months.
posted on July 19, 2002 03:14:39 PM
Sounds like he is in a "hedge" scenario in which he makes money if the market does anything but stay the same.
Anyone shorting stocks recently made a ton of money. Many of the late day upward spikes you see on the market were the short sellers covering.
Using these devices can make you some money if things go the way you have bet. It is used because you can put up a fraction of the capital amount needed to buy thousands of dollars worth of stocks. If you bet the stock will go down, and it does, you receive the price difference between the lower price and what you contracted the stock price at. If the stock goes up, you pay the difference. The system works the same way if you bet that the stock price will go up.
These contarcts are kind of a "short cut" to moving the capital and stocks around.
You get the same results if you own a stock and think it will go down. You just sell it before it goes down, and in reality you have shorted the stock. The same results if you think a stock will go up- you buy it before it goes up.
Short and long contracts allow you to "own the results" of more stocks than you could actually buy. Depending on your net worth, you can get at least a 2 to 1 ratio on cash with a broker to play the game. If you have $2000 of cash on the books with a broker, they will allow to "game" $4000 worth of stocks. If you have provided a net worth statement to the broker, some brokers will allow you more leverage.
But the results of "gaming" stocks if you're wrong have a much greater risk involved. The upside is equal to the downside. You have to able to act quickly to stem losses.
posted on July 19, 2002 03:15:01 PM
7 Trillion Dollars...That's what has "Disappeared" from the Dow since it's High...Actually I think it "might" help eBay sells, IF you sell items BELOW Retail value. Bargain Hunters might be driven to ebay instead of the Retailers (which should hurt the Market even MORE!!).
posted on July 19, 2002 03:25:12 PM
I don't see any segment of the market "thriving" in this atmosphere, eBay or any other.
The bottom line is that if people don't have jobs or discretionary money, they don't buy.
Sooner or later sellers with diminishing sell through rates will begin listing less.
Things may turn around, but who knows when. I would say that earnings and revenue growth would be a sure sign, but after reading the corporate scams in accounting, I couldn't trust an upswing.
I also think these accounting tricks are more widespread than anyone is letting on. It was reported the other day that AOL was also doing it.
Until these accounting scandels are played out, you can't even trust the "good" news.
posted on July 19, 2002 03:45:22 PM
It is an auction sales thread for those who are aware that main st and wall st are connected, and both have an impact on ebay sales.
posted on July 19, 2002 04:21:16 PM
The stock market is now priced at 1998 prices, the bubble has been erased, and it's getting oversold. Just like we had irrational exuberance a few years ago, we now have irrational pessimism. Everyone is ignoring the signs that the economy is starting to recover. This is a perfect opportunity to buy stocks for the long term.
Sellers who did well over the last year are really going to thrive when the economy starts hitting on all cylinders.
posted on July 19, 2002 05:56:14 PM
I would much rather have listings running when the stock markets are in a rally mode. Much better bids with a higher trending stock market. I yearn for the good old days when I started with total Ebay listings about 20 million and a Stock Market bubble to boot. Money was really flowing then. Ebay was relatively new at that time and a novelty for many buyers. Now the listings are 60, 70, or 80 million in number and the competition continues to grow.
As far as the markets go. Bear markets don't end until the majority of investors swear off stocks forever. Unfortunately, I see a deflationary depression coming within the next 2 years. Debt levels are too high and they have continued to increase during the the most recent economic downturn. Many people with high debt levels are getting laid off. Debt service is becoming a problem as reflected in the recent activity of the subprime lenders and the banking index. So, I see much more downside for the markets this year, but probably not until the fall. I am hoping for a bear market rally starting at the end of July to get some listings up.
I love ebay, it is a blast finding things and selling them. I am very glad its not my "real job" though. I have been able to supplement my income nicely using this venue for sales. Plus my wife says it keeps me out of trouble.
All the best to all of you with your auctions. I may get some off Sunday night if I get motivated.
posted on July 19, 2002 05:57:19 PM
I had the television tuned to MSNBC this afternoon. Contained in a blurb about today's big drop was a few sentences that next week some of the big corporations are going to be releasing the news that third and fourth quarter income will be considerably less than expected. Ebay was one of the companies mentioned.
Is this a want to be stock broker thread or a auction sales thread. 
Meg may use us again to prop up the figures.