labelle
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posted on November 4, 2002 01:40:23 PM new
Did you see this article in the AuctionBytes newsletter where eBay really only has 24.3 million active users--almost half of the 48 million claimed before??This is globally and after acquiring Yahoo in parts of Europe--and maybe--I can't remember--others.
If 48 million was a fallacy--what else about eBay claims is?
Article below--I hope I did this right BY AW rules by printing it.
New eBay Metric for Counting Active Auction Users
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by Ina Steiner
eBay published a new "active user" metric. The company defines active user as any user who has bid, bought or sold in the trailing twelve-month period, excluding the users of Half.com and Korea's Internet Auction Co. At the end of the third quarter (ending September 30, 2002), there were 24.2 million unique users on eBay.
eBay had claimed twice the number of users, so the new metric, by measuring only active accounts, is a more relevant number. There is still a question of how eBay counts one person with multiple accounts. I asked eBay spokesperson Kevin Pursglove how I would be counted if I actually had two eBay User IDs, and he gave the following response:
"It is based on the User ID and not the individual. In your case, both User IDs will be considered active if both placed a bid, bought or sold an item in the trailing twelve month period. If you used but one of the user IDs, only that account is considered active."
Half of eBay users have more than one eBay User ID, and 12% have 5 or more eBay User IDs, according to an AuctionBytes survey conducted in May 2001. So while the new number does measure activity on the site, it is not a count of "unique" users. (More information on the survey can be found here:
<http://www.auctionbytes.com/pages/abu/y201/m06/abu0039/s02>.
The new measurement is a step in the right direction. Ideally, eBay would make available number of unique users, and further break it down by international site. It is difficult to measure the growth of the U.S. eBay site, since every time eBay acquires an international site, the number of users is added in to the total.
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rarriffle
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posted on November 4, 2002 02:19:22 PM new
oh well, whats a few bodies here or there?
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uaru
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posted on November 4, 2002 02:27:02 PM new
I question the accuracy of that survey. That wasn't exactly a true cross section of the eBay membership base in my opinion. I'm sure if I had a survey on a political matter and I conducted the poll at the 9th hole at Pebble Beach I'd get a decidedly conservative results, same goes if I conducted the survey at a soup kitchen in downtown Seattle, I'd get a much different result.
Had Auctionbyte send random emails out to eBay users for the survey I'd find the results more valid, though I'm sure they might have got in some hot water for such an approach.
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labelle
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posted on November 4, 2002 02:45:07 PM new
oaru
The 12% possible multiple users was ABs stats-granted.
But 24.2 million down from 48 million were eBay's numbers. Think of ad revenues alone based on site membership and usage. Think if you were a corporation paying for ads based on 48 million possible lookers and found only half were really there.
As sellers with closing auctions with bids-you may say--"so what, I am stil selling". I will have to agree--but if these user/viewer numbers are diminished--do I want to pay higher fees that I feel are coming our way in January?
I think eBay is working to add a few things to justify fee raises including Gallery.
But I still go back and see the discrepency in numbers-- with 50% difference--- and the credibility of a company that can just shrug it off--is not the highest. I wonder about their stability as well.
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uaru
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posted on November 4, 2002 02:59:48 PM new
labelle I wonder about their stability as well.
Well, there's no question that eBay isn't stable. The 3rd quarter reports seem to bear that out.
Online transaction sales grew 73 percent to $263.6 million from $152.3 million in the comparable period last year. EBay's core auction business hosted 160 million listings during the quarter, up 47 percent from last year.
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ahc3
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posted on November 4, 2002 05:42:12 PM new
What's an active user, and are they unique? I have 3 accounts that I regularly use, and 1 I use just for posting messages there. Do I count as 4?
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tooltimes
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posted on November 4, 2002 05:51:35 PM new
Someone reported those figures about a week ago on AW but here is the url to the story
http://www.auctionbytes.com/cab/abu/y202/m11/abu0082/s04
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labelle
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posted on November 4, 2002 06:03:14 PM new
oaru
"...EBay stock has fallen about 7 percent this year, compared
with a 76 percent rise by Amazon.com, the Internet retailer..."
This was from a Yahoo news story 11/30.
And wasn't there some stock broker company that lowered their grading of eBay stock about a month ago? Ebay is a house of cards with nothing physical to back up it's stock prices.This is a bankers nightmare. This is JMHO--some people like them and some don't like or trust them. We all use them as long as they are working. ..
ahc3-- AuctionBytes point actually was that they figure about 12% of the 24.2 million are just multiple accounts. Ebay is calling active users:
"...any user who has bid, bought or sold in the trailing twelve-month period..."
I would think you are 3 people--they didn't mention posters.
If you look at eBay announcements about money--I am not an economics whiz--but look at the eBayese wording for what their numbers mean. Then try and figure out what they really do mean. I am sorry--I don't have an exampole at hand.
My opinion is still that a 50% change in size of users reported is more than a computer error or oops and makes me wonder how many other errors in reporting there may be. .
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ohmslucy
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posted on November 4, 2002 06:44:12 PM new
Ummm....
What's the point of all this information?
I'm puzzled...
Is there some reason I should care how many of eBay's registered users are active?
Lucy
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Sharronn
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posted on November 5, 2002 12:43:08 AM new
Ebay's report of users was always "registered users"...the last number I read was they have 55 million "registered users".
It is logical that not all those users would be active all the time. All ebay is reporting now is how many "active" users...that number of the registered users who have been active in the last 12 months.
What you are missing is that every one of those "registered users" could become active again. What we don't know is how often the "inactive" user searches ebay for items...and once they find an item they want they will probably bid again.
I had a customer recently who had purchased from me over a year ago. she has not been active on ebay for that whole time but recently bid again...she would show up in that set of statistics as an inactive user but in the next one will show up as active.
Ebay didn't make an "error" in their reports of the number of users...registered and active are two different set of statistics.
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hagey
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posted on November 5, 2002 02:53:07 AM new
And your point is??
Can you spell jealousy?
[ edited by hagey on Nov 5, 2002 02:55 AM ]
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tooltimes
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posted on November 5, 2002 04:05:22 AM new
I think almost all of the inactive accounts are really dead accounts with forgotten paswords or forgotten user IDs, etc. IMO, 95% of these will never be used again and that is probably a good thing because if they ever do bid again the unfortunate sellers will find those bidders have a dead email.
By ebay admiting that half of its accounts are dead and probably never coming back to life they are coming clean and doing an anti-Enron thing but reporting more realistic membership counts. They have long been critized for their unrealistic and inflated counts and it's a good thing that they took the plunge and admit that half of its accounts are long dormant.
I'd like to see ebay make every ebay user that has not bid in a one year period have a MANDATORY review of their contact and email info before they are allowed to bid or sell again.
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katiyana
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posted on November 5, 2002 08:43:00 AM new
The active # of users also excludes all those posting IDs - which is probably a good thing - I know of some users with 5-10 IDs and most of them are for posting only.
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twinsoft
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posted on November 5, 2002 09:01:56 AM new
Hi, Cathy. Thanks for the info. There's no doubt eBay is fudging the numbers. We've seen it before, and they don't make much of an effort to hide it. Remember the bit about how auction features add value? They caught some flak over that. eBay is certainly overinflated, but as long as they keep bringing in the numbers, nobody really cares.
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tooltimes
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posted on November 5, 2002 09:49:14 AM new
The active # of users also excludes all those posting IDs - which is probably a good thing - I know of some users with 5-10 IDs and most of them are for posting only.
By posting IDs I guess you mean the ebay IDs that users post with on the eBay boards. The article doesn't mention them but I wouldn't be surprised if ebay actually does count them. Posting on those boards with an inactive account is an excellent idea as things can get heated over there. I still say the number one rule to posting on any message board is to not use a real auction ID.
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katiyana
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posted on November 7, 2002 02:10:59 PM new
The "Active" number probably doesn't include them because those IDs are not used for buying or selling in the marketplace..
but I'm sure they are included in the larger # of registered users...
I only post in "safe" discussions with my sales IDs - it does generate sales 8) and use other IDs in the controversial threads.
[ edited by katiyana on Nov 7, 2002 02:11 PM ]
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