. . . Indeed, staying at eBay may be the riskier thing for Whitman to do.
Why? Well, because there are more than a few signs indicating that eBay's high-growth days are a thing of the past. This year, the company is looking to grow earnings per share by no more than 24%. The world's leading auctioneer is also showing symptoms of vulnerability. It recently had to scale back a recent fee hike, and it seems to be offering cut-rate listing promotions at a feverish pace these days. Rule Breakers newsletter recommendation Overstock.com (Nasdaq: OSTK) is also promoting its new auction offerings aggressively, and that's something that others like Yahoo! (Nasdaq: YHOO) and Amazon (Nasdaq: AMZN) never did.
At 14:30 the low for the stock was $35.95; it seems that today the support price maybe around $36.25; however that will change within the coming days.
posted on March 14, 2005 01:54:56 PM new
Maybe she doesn't care, or maybe she thinks she can improve eBay. No matter what she is fixed for life for her and her family. Besides with a husband that is a neurosurgeon she just might like to take some time off. Or, maybe she wants to be the CEO of Boeing. Who knows but she must have some great credentials so what ever happens she woundn't be sitting long. We can speculate but who knows what is in the minds of women.
posted on March 14, 2005 02:05:29 PM new
::This year, the company is looking to grow earnings per share by no more than 24%.::
You say that like its a negative. I just watched a market anylist today talking about a reasonable average growth percentage expectation these days is 7-8% and yet ebay projects 3 times that and you portray it as a negative.
As for Overstock - the only people reccomending it are those who do not use it. It's got good advertising but the users don't seem to have a great deal of good things to say about it.
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If it's really "common" sense, why do so few people actually have it?
posted on March 15, 2005 09:42:30 AM new
It is true the ebay's projections are down, and as fenix stated, they still expect growth. We all are seeing a trend of ebay's slow decline, but that isn't turning into another sites growth either. Could it be that so many buyers have gotten burned by bad ebay sellers that they are giving up on all online auctions, not just ebay?
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Alive in 2005
posted on March 15, 2005 11:42:05 AM new
Stone - I don't think it's bad sellers. I mean, of course there are some and they make things harder but I think it has more to do with the decline in disposable income than anything else. Retail sales are down everywhere but the deep discounters so why should ebay be any different? I think the trick is to find the right product directed at the right demographic.
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If it's really "common" sense, why do so few people actually have it?
[ edited by fenix03 on Mar 15, 2005 11:43 AM ]
posted on March 15, 2005 12:20:12 PM new
Ebay is not declining, it's rate of growth is slowing.
The idea that Overstock will ever be serious competition, is a real side-splitter. Just look at the postings here to see how badly they are performing.
Yahoo and Amazon both aggressively promoted auctions and they couldn't make a dent in ebay.
The only weakness I see is that ebay might use some of its billions in cash to branch into other businesses that turn out to be a drag on profit.
posted on March 15, 2005 12:44:16 PM new
"Could it be that so many buyers have gotten burned by bad ebay sellers that they are giving up on all online auctions, not just ebay?"
I think you're right. Several of my last ebay purchases were bad...sellers taking forever to ship, quality no where near as described. Therefore I am buying less. Imagine a brand new buyer getting burned, why would they bother to take a second chance on getting burned again?
Apparently people are buying more online, each year we hear the news stories of increased online sales. The question is, where are they buying?
These other auction sites are never going to make it if they are just another ebay clone. They need to do something really unique and different to get the buyers and sellers. Thats why ebay was successful, it was a totally unique concept when it started.
Amazon had a good thing going with zshops. The first fixed priced format for sellers. Why they dumped it I have no idea, sales were very good for me back in the day.
And despite all of the news re eBay's entry into China($100 Million), I find it more interesting that they've invested 7 times that amount in classified sites the world over.
I believe that long-term, eBay's success will more and more hinge upon the successful (or not)integration of PayPal as the defacto internet payment gateway.
Best,
Michael
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Internet Talk Radio
Everything eBay...and More. E-Auction-Air
posted on March 15, 2005 01:16:26 PM new
Hey Michael - any plans to discuss how a Chinese war with Taiwan could effect ebay on your show?
I have to wonder if China is willing to risk the financial collapse that would come with such an action when they are finally starting to really get their feet under them. I know I am looking for sources in other countries. I'm sure I'm not the only seller that is shoring up other supply lines.
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If it's really "common" sense, why do so few people actually have it?
posted on March 15, 2005 02:46:42 PM new
Hi fenix;
If China decides to invade this "rebel province" then all bets are off...not only for eBay but for the world in general.
But you raise an interesting point re China insofar as it is a dicey proposition all-around, whether you're Meg or simply sourcing there.
There's no question that sourcing from China on a whole host of items is the cheapest cost-of-goods. However, you still need to be sourcing an item that is unique in some fashion or another. Simply sourcing a no-name MP3 player, for example, is merely buying right into eBay free fall for commodity items.
Sourcing from China requires a thorough knowledge of tariffs, etc...not to mention lead-time. This last fall, for example, Wal-Mart got the shakes re 4th quarter sales and began delaying delivery. The resulting back-up at Long Beach created delays in delivery nation-wide for everyone.
I'm all for going as far up-stream as possible to source goods for resale. But you have to be careful that the economies achieved aren't out-weighed but the quantity required to deal with any manufacturer; particularly when you are dealing with a marketplace like eBay where pricing is nearly impossible to hold.
Any more than a 30 day supply of nearly anything is alone reason to be circumspect.
I'm sure you've taken all of this into consideration...but I get questions everyday from folks who think that they can buy off-the-shelf from Alibaba and be competitive.
Its a good topic and I will bring it up on the show.
Best,
Michael
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Internet Talk Radio
Everything eBay...and More. E-Auction-Air
posted on March 15, 2005 07:06:54 PM new
Does anyone know her total compensation? I'm pretty confident that this type of decision would be heavily influenced by money. Maybe the next business fad will be Martha Stewart swan dives. She probably gets X amount of bonus for a career ending injury.
posted on March 15, 2005 08:15:02 PM new
Oh, the poor dear! I had no idea she was so close to poverty. No wonder she wants to move on. Where's her mother when she needs her?
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