sparkz
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posted on September 17, 2005 07:22:13 PM
Ophelia is history for the U.S. now, but hot on her tail is TD-17 which formed this afternoon. It's still out by the Lesser Antilles, but is expected to reach Tropical storm strength tonight. It has plenty of time to reach hurricane status later and at least a couple long range computer models forecast it to become a major hurricane of Cat-3 or higher. The five day track, as of this posting, is far from certain. Expect it to change with every update for the next several days. Another area of concern is a low pressure system near Puerto Rico that could develop shortly into a depression and threaten the gulf coast.
A $75.00 solid state device will always blow first to protect a 25 cent fuse ~ Murphy's Law
[ edited by sparkz on Sep 17, 2005 07:23 PM ]
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vintagepostcardsdotorg
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posted on September 17, 2005 07:30:50 PM
TD-18 just formed, too. maybe someday we'll listen to the idea that global warming could play a role in all of this, you think? we're the only industrialized nation which continues to insist that global warming isn't a potential problem...
http://stores.ebay.com/postcards-postcards?refid=store
http://www.vintagepostcards.org
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vintagepostcardsdotorg
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posted on September 17, 2005 07:44:25 PM
update - TD-17 is now TS Phillippe
http://stores.ebay.com/postcards-postcards?refid=store
http://www.vintagepostcards.org
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sparkz
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posted on September 17, 2005 07:58:24 PM
TD 17 was expected to reach Tropical Storm status tonight. This is one to watch, because it wasn't much more than a low pressure mass of clouds this morning. It now has a long journey over some warm water and will most likely be a hurricane in a short period of time. TD-18 is more of an immediate threat to Florida. The NHC bookies are presently showing Miami as the most probable point of landfall. Hopefully, it will only be a low level TS and break up over land. If it emerges into the warm gulf as a Tropical Storm, there could be more problems ahead for the gulf coast.
A $75.00 solid state device will always blow first to protect a 25 cent fuse ~ Murphy's Law
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sparkz
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posted on September 17, 2005 09:56:22 PM
Here's TD-18 and her tracking map. Looks like a possibility of 2 hurricanes at one time to watch in the near future.
A $75.00 solid state device will always blow first to protect a 25 cent fuse ~ Murphy's Law
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glassgrl
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posted on September 18, 2005 04:52:04 AM
vintage - here's a good book for you to read....Michael Crichton - State of Fear
I think you'll find it interesting.
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niel35
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posted on September 18, 2005 09:48:29 AM
Wonderful - here we go again with putting up shutters, putting plants away, tying down and dammit I just froze a batch of mangos and spaghetti sauce. Lots the last batch to K
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sanmar
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posted on September 18, 2005 10:47:42 AM
sparkz, what is the link to these storm maps? I would appreciate getting it.
Life Is Too Short To Drink Bad Wine
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glassgrl
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posted on September 18, 2005 11:33:30 AM
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/
[ edited by glassgrl on Sep 18, 2005 11:34 AM ]
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sparkz
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posted on September 18, 2005 12:13:23 PM
Sanmar...The link Glassgrl posted is the most direct way. You can also link to information on any tropical storm that has caused an advisory or warning to be issued for any portion of the United States by going to this page:
http://www.nws.noaa.gov/
By watching the color coded areas on the map, you can see what warnings and advisories are in affect for every forecast area in the U.S.
A $75.00 solid state device will always blow first to protect a 25 cent fuse ~ Murphy's Law
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sparkz
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posted on September 18, 2005 02:18:38 PM
TD-18 has been upgraded to a tropical storm and is now Tropical Storm Rita. NHC feels it has a good chance to reach Cat-1 hurricane strength before it hits Florida. A hurricane watch is now in effect for the south end of Florida and evacuation of the Keys has begun.
A $75.00 solid state device will always blow first to protect a 25 cent fuse ~ Murphy's Law
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niel35
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posted on September 18, 2005 02:36:47 PM
There is a mandatory evacuation of all visitors in the Keys from 7 Mile bridge down and Schools are closed on Mon and Tuesday in Monroe County.
We don't need this right now. They are still cleaning up the debris after Katrina. Huge ficus trees were uprooted and blocked roadways. They are still out there with big trucks hauling it away.
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sparkz
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posted on September 18, 2005 08:39:23 PM
Tropical storm Philippe has now been upgraded to a Category 1 hurricane, and is expected to intensify. It's still not an immediate threat, but needs to be watched by those on the east coast.
Rita is still a tropical storm, but is gaining strength and expected to become a hurricane tomorrow afternoon. A hurricane warning has been issued for the Keys and extreme southern tip of Florida. This will be a wet one. here's an excerpt from the NHC public advisory:
<< RITA IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 4 TO 6
INCHES OVER MUCH OF THE TURKS AND CAICOS AND THE SOUTHEAST AND
CENTRAL BAHAMAS...WITH POSSIBLE ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 8
INCHES. STORM TOTALS OF 6 TO 10 INCHES WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS
OF 15 INCHES WILL BE POSSIBLE IN THE FLORIDA KEYS...WITH 3 TO 5
INCHES POSSIBLE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN FLORIDA PENINSULA.>>
A $75.00 solid state device will always blow first to protect a 25 cent fuse ~ Murphy's Law
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zoomin
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posted on September 19, 2005 10:04:16 AM
Broward County Schools closing tomorrow....
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sparkz
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posted on September 19, 2005 10:30:41 AM
The track has moved a little further north, and a Hurricane warning has been issued for Miami-Dade county.
A $75.00 solid state device will always blow first to protect a 25 cent fuse ~ Murphy's Law
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peiklk
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posted on September 19, 2005 11:05:56 AM
<em>maybe someday we'll listen to the idea that global warming could play a role in all of this, you think? we're the only industrialized nation which continues to insist that global warming isn't a potential problem... </em>
I think the real evidence supports the global warming is nothing more than an unfounded theory.
------
"Bend over backward for the customer. Don't bend forward."
Bush/Cheney 2004 -- FOR AMERICA'S SAKE!
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niel35
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posted on September 19, 2005 11:43:38 AM
Went to 2 grocery stores. First you line up for a parking place, then a grocery cart, then to just get in the store and then pure bedlam to find anything and line up again to pay and get out. I gave up. Went to CVS Drugs and they have lots of ice and water, and 2 buck chuck but got the last of the bread. Now to get my shutters up............
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sparkz
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posted on September 19, 2005 12:41:19 PM
Niel...There are some mandatory and voluntary evacuations ordered for certain zones. If you're in one of these zones, you need to bail out and get away from the coastal area. To be absolutely safe, I would recommend Los Angeles or San Francisco  Here's a portion of the Miami-Dade local public advisory:
<<
MIAMI-DADE EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT HAS ANNOUNCED MANDATORY EVACUATION FOR MOBILE
HOMES AND A STRONGLY RECOMMENDED VOLUNTARY EVACUATION FOR EVACUATION ZONE A
WHICH INCLUDES THE BARRIER ISLANDS AND LOW LYING COASTAL NEIGHBORHOODS. SHELTERS
WILL BE OPENED...HOWEVER PERSONS WHO EVACUATE ARE URGED TO STAY WITH RELATIVES
OR FRIENDS.>>
Rita now has sustained winds of 70 mph, which is only 4 mph short of a Cat-1 hurricane. It will definitely be a hurricane when it gets to Florida.
A $75.00 solid state device will always blow first to protect a 25 cent fuse ~ Murphy's Law
[ edited by sparkz on Sep 19, 2005 12:44 PM ]
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zoomin
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posted on September 19, 2005 01:01:50 PM
I'm looking for an update on the projected path ~ can't seem to find one that's later than 11 am.
any idea when they update it?
(gotta love living in South Florida during Hurricane Season!)
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niel35
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posted on September 19, 2005 01:26:01 PM
Thanks for the info, Sparky. I am inland and my house is built up high. The roads flood but my house has never had any flooding. However, I found out I have a roof leak and have to wait 6 weeks for anybody to get out here. Looks like the worst part will be south of here in the Keys, but you never know. We are in the "cone" so have to be careful. I'm staying tho with my 3 dogs and parrot. Also my daughter is here.
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sparkz
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posted on September 19, 2005 02:14:39 PM
Niel...They are warning about focusing on the path of the eye and getting complacent. This is a physically large storm, and hurricane force winds may extend over 100 miles from the eye when it reaches the Keys.
Zoomin...I believe it was mentioned in an interim public advisory issued at 2:00 PM or in a Hurricane Local Statement for Miami-Dade. The new track map for 5 PM should be out any minute now with the latest path.
A $75.00 solid state device will always blow first to protect a 25 cent fuse ~ Murphy's Law
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zoomin
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posted on September 19, 2005 02:46:24 PM
thanks Sparkz, got it!
Looks like the cone got a bit lower ~ still going to put up the second half of the shutters!
stay safe ~ I'll have four kids home with me so hopefully the electricity will hold out this time!
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niel35
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posted on September 19, 2005 02:57:06 PM
I'm watchin the news, Sparky. Got the front window shutter up and ended up with a half of a spare. course there is 2" I can peek out of now. Oh, well, not taking them down again. Its aobut 92 degrees and mosquitos are a bitin.
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tsunamii
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posted on September 19, 2005 03:01:55 PM
This is a great link to see Hurricanes, Tropical Storms, Invests, etc. Just click on the name of the storm and it will show you the models, satellite, etc.
http://weather.net-waves.com/tropics.php
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sparkz
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posted on September 19, 2005 07:32:51 PM
The outer bands of Rita are approaching Florida now. Here is a view from the NWS doppler radar in Miami. I will change this to the Key West radar site tomorrow when Rita gets closer. This image will update every 6 minutes and it's easy to get a cached image after the first time you view it, so be sure to hit ctrl+f5 to refresh the page after the first viewing. Niel, get your umbrella out. You're going to get wet!!!
A $75.00 solid state device will always blow first to protect a 25 cent fuse ~ Murphy's Law
[ edited by sparkz on Sep 20, 2005 11:12 AM ]
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sparkz
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posted on September 20, 2005 07:05:41 AM
At about 9:00 AM EST this morning, Tropical Storm Rita was upgraded to a Category 1 hurricane.
A $75.00 solid state device will always blow first to protect a 25 cent fuse ~ Murphy's Law
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sparkz
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posted on September 20, 2005 11:15:46 AM
Hurricane Rita is now a Category 2 hurricane and has a good chance to reach Cat 4 before it comes ashore in Texas or La. The radar image above is now from the NWS site at Key West.
A $75.00 solid state device will always blow first to protect a 25 cent fuse ~ Murphy's Law
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vintagepostcardsdotorg
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posted on September 20, 2005 02:00:32 PM
they just announced that Rita will be a cat 4 by 2 p.m. EST tomorrow.
http://stores.ebay.com/postcards-postcards?refid=store
http://www.vintagepostcards.org
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sparkz
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posted on September 20, 2005 04:04:44 PM
Vintage...Rita arrived in Florida as a tropical storm and exits as a Cat 2 hurricane. It still has several days over very warm water with favorable conditions to intensify before it makes landfall. This is almost identical to Katrina. There is no doubt that this storm will reach Category 4, or very close to it, before it comes ashore. Glad to see the Mayor of Galveston is smarter than the idiot in N.O. He's not sticking his head in the sand and ignoring the warnings. They are already already sending in busses to begin evacuations. Again, there is no such thing as "riding out" a CAT 4 or 5 storm. It's called attempted suicide.
A $75.00 solid state device will always blow first to protect a 25 cent fuse ~ Murphy's Law
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sparkz
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posted on September 20, 2005 06:06:58 PM
Yes, California can get slammed by a hurricane also. Here is a radar image from the NWS site in Hanford, California which is about 25 miles from me. What is actually happening here is there is a low pressure system spinning off the coast close to Sanmar that has picked up a fetch of moisture from Hurricane Max and flung it over us today. Max is way out in the south Pacific, but the jet stream and the low system teamed up to bring us the first moisture since last spring. I got a few sprinkles this morning, just enough to combine with the dust on my windshield and make mud. North of us though, they are getting some welcome precipitation. It will all be in Nevada by tomorrow morning.
A $75.00 solid state device will always blow first to protect a 25 cent fuse ~ Murphy's Law
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