sparkz
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posted on October 15, 2005 06:58:23 PM new
Tropical depression 24 was formed a few hours ago. This one has the NHC concerned because of it's location, the low shear and warm water it has to feed on. It could be a tropical storm by tomorrow, and a hurricane by Monday. It has the potential to become a major hurricane, and should start moving north in a couple days. Anyone from the west coast of Florida to Texas should pay attention to this one.
A $75.00 solid state device will always blow first to protect a 25 cent fuse ~ Murphy's Law
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ladyjewels2000
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posted on October 15, 2005 07:01:13 PM new
And we wanted property on the Gulf WHY????
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vintagepostcardsdotorg
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posted on October 15, 2005 07:07:32 PM new
my hubby used to want property on the gulf. operative words being "used to." what i can't figure out is, who can afford the homeowners' insurance down there?!!!
http://stores.ebay.com/postcards-postcards?refid=store
http://www.vintagepostcards.org
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sparkz
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posted on October 15, 2005 07:21:41 PM new
There's still some uncertainty in what this storm will do, because it's in the early stages of formation. However, here's a portion of the NHC's first announcement, which reflects their concern:
<<THE DEPRESSION IS EXPECTED TO MOVE VERY
SLOWLY WESTWARD OVER THE VERY WARM WATERS OF THE WESTERN
CARIBBEAN...AND WITHIN A LOW SHEAR ENVIRONMENT. BOTH SHIPS AND THE
GFDL SUGGEST THAT THE DEPRESSION COULD BECOME A HURRICANE IN A
COUPLE OF DAYS. IN FACT...THE GFDL MAKES THIS CYCLONE A VERY
INTENSE HURRICANE OVER THE NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN BETWEEN CUBA AND
THE CAYMAN ISLANDS. STRENGTHENING IS INDICATED IN THE OFFICIAL
FORECAST BUT NOT AS AGGRESSIVE AS THE GFDL...AND MORE ALONG THE
LINE OF THE SHIPS MODEL.
THE DEPRESSION IS MOVING SLOWLY WESTWARD AT ABOUT 3 KNOTS. A HIGH
PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO IS BLOCKING ANY NORTHWARD
MOTION AND IS KEEPING VERY WEAK STEERING CURRENTS AT THIS TIME.
THEREFORE...A SLOW WESTWARD DRIFT IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 3
DAYS. BY THEN...A WEAKENING OF THE RIDGE COULD DEVELOP OVER FLORIDA
AND THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO AND THE CYCLONE SHOULD BEGIN TO MOVE
SLOWLY NORTHWARD. THIS IS THE SOLUTION PROVIDED BY THE GFDL...THE
UK...THE ECMWF AND THE NOGAPS MODELS. THE GFS DOES NOT
SIGNIFICANTLY DEVELOP THE CYCLONE AND DOES NOT CARRY THE SYSTEM
MORE THAN A DAY OR TWO.
ALL INDICATIONS ARE THAT THERE COULD BE A DANGEROUS HURRICANE IN
THE NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA IN THE NEXT 3 TO 5 DAYS.
HOWEVER...BOTH GENESIS AND INTENSIFICATION ARE HIGHLY UNCERTAIN.
ALL INTERESTS IN THE NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SHOULD MONITOR THE
PROGRESS OF THE DEVELOPING CYCLONE.>>
Vintage...If hubby want's property on the gulf, tell him to wait about a week. There could be some bargain priced lots available. Especially if this thing heads toward Louisiana or Mississippi. If it gains TS status tomorrow, it will be called Wilma, which is the last of the storm names allocated for this season. It will also become the busiest Atlantic tropical season on record.
A $75.00 solid state device will always blow first to protect a 25 cent fuse ~ Murphy's Law
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vintagepostcardsdotorg
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posted on October 15, 2005 07:37:33 PM new
why are they stopping with w? x could be xenia, y = yolanda, z = zelda
http://stores.ebay.com/postcards-postcards?refid=store
http://www.vintagepostcards.org
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sparkz
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posted on October 15, 2005 07:47:16 PM new
For some reason, they won't use x, y, or z to name a tropical storm. Any storms after Wilma will be named after the Greek alphabet. The next will be Alpha, then Beta, etc.
A $75.00 solid state device will always blow first to protect a 25 cent fuse ~ Murphy's Law
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hwahwa
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posted on October 15, 2005 08:34:01 PM new
Take 2 aspirins and call me in the morning.
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niel35
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posted on October 16, 2005 05:25:43 AM new
Thanks for the heads up, Sparky. Have been on HGTV all weekend and didn't pay attention to the local news. We are supposed to get down in the 60's tonight and it will stay cool for a few days. Maybe the cold front is holding it down there. The "Season" should be over by now. Enuf already!
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KarenMx
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posted on October 16, 2005 10:42:56 AM new
They stop naming at 'W' because there aren't enough X,Y,Z names to make up the endless number of lists they need--though there are probably enough Q (skipped for the same reason), W, X, Y, Z names to be used as rarely as the list gets down that far.
Karen
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sparkz
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posted on October 17, 2005 12:54:31 PM new
Tropical depression 24 became tropical storm Wilma this morning, and now has maximum sustained winds of 50 mph. The storm track at the top of the page is highly uncertain at this point. Some models predict landfall in Florida, and some predict Mexico. Others cover everything in between. They all agree that Wilma will likely become a hurricane tomorrow. The naming of Wilma ties the record for the number of named tropical storms in a single season, which was set in 1933.
A $75.00 solid state device will always blow first to protect a 25 cent fuse ~ Murphy's Law
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sanmar
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posted on October 17, 2005 02:22:40 PM new
The latest map shows the center of th storm to be south & west of Puerto Rico traveling in a NW direction. At this time there is no definite path. It could hit Mexico's Yucatan penisula or could veer north towar Texas, & LA. Tomorrow should bring a better idea of its course. If there is another storm/hurricaine, it will be named Alpha. This has not happened in the 60 years of naming tropical storms.
Life Is Too Short To Drink Bad Wine
[ edited by sanmar on Oct 17, 2005 02:28 PM ]
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sparkz
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posted on October 17, 2005 02:56:03 PM new
Sanmar...There's a high pressure system over the gulf states that is keeping the storm stationary and holding it almost in place, first going south, then west, then a little north. What really startled me, was a report that the low pressure system off our coast, the one that is giving us and Southern Calif rain today, is expected to start moving east tomorrow night and displace or weaken the high pressure block, which will cause the storm to move north toward the gulf coast. It's hard to imagine a rainstorm in California causing a hurricane to come ashore in the gulf, but that's one of the top scenarios the NHC is looking at.
A $75.00 solid state device will always blow first to protect a 25 cent fuse ~ Murphy's Law
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sparkz
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posted on October 18, 2005 09:01:53 AM new
Wilma is now a category one hurricane, and is expect to intensify to at least a category 3 in a couple days. The storm track is still uncertain, but the NHC bookies are guessing Florida.
A $75.00 solid state device will always blow first to protect a 25 cent fuse ~ Murphy's Law
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dacreson
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posted on October 18, 2005 11:24:44 AM new
"my hubby used to want property on the gulf. operative words being "used to." what i can't figure out is, who can afford the homeowners' insurance down there?!!! "
(Pensacola FL)
My insurance (HO) is $530 a year and has gone up last month by 35$ and I DO Not have citizens (State sponsored insurance) Course I don't live on a sand dune 1/2 mile from the gulf, I live 15 miles away. HO Insurance here in Florida is not yet an issue. Course I could live in Tapanga Canyon (LA Calif) and get burnt out every five years 
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sparkz
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posted on October 18, 2005 06:40:45 PM new
Wilma has reached category 2 status, with winds in excess of 100 mph. It is intensifying faster than originally thought, and looks like it's going to be a blockbuster. Here's a quote from the latest advisory from the NHC. << WILMA COULD BE A MAJOR HURRICANE
BY THIS TIME TOMORROW...AND REACH CATEGORY FOUR STRENGTH BEFORE
ENTERING THE SOUTHEASTERN GULF OF MEXICO.>>
A $75.00 solid state device will always blow first to protect a 25 cent fuse ~ Murphy's Law
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sparkz
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posted on October 18, 2005 08:38:19 PM new
Niel, Bizzy, Ralphie, Dacreason, Glassgrl and the rest of the VD'rs in Florida. This storm, as of 11:00 pm had winds of 110 mph, which is 1 mph short of category 3. It may have already reached that level by now. It's predicted to become a category four tomorrow, and the NHC is now talking about Wilma's potential to become a category 5 hurricane. Make plans to batten down the hatches. The actual point of impact is still uncertain, but NHC and all the major models agree it will be Florida. Here's an excerpt from the latest advisory issued at 11:00 p.m. EST <<THE INTENSITY FORECAST HAS BECOME MORE COMPLICATED. THE CURRENT
RAPID INTENSIFICATION AND FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT SHOULD BRING WILMA
TO CATEGORY FOUR STATUS IN THE NEXT 24 HR...AND IT WOULD NOT BE A
SURPRISE TO SEE IT REACH CATEGORY FIVE BEFORE IT BOTTOMS OUT.>>
A $75.00 solid state device will always blow first to protect a 25 cent fuse ~ Murphy's Law
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sparkz
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posted on October 18, 2005 10:24:16 PM new
Wilma is now a very strong category 4 hurricane with maximum sustained winds of 150 mph, which is just 6 mph shy of a category 5 hurricane. It is expected to become a category 5 on Wednesday.
A $75.00 solid state device will always blow first to protect a 25 cent fuse ~ Murphy's Law
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estatesalestuff
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posted on October 18, 2005 11:56:48 PM new
I continue to be amazed, when these hurricanes are forming again and again ... hang in there Gulf Coast!
marcia/ohio
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estatesalestuff
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posted on October 19, 2005 02:21:20 AM new
Oy, she's a Category 5 now.
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niel35
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posted on October 19, 2005 05:15:58 AM new
We are preparing, Sparky. Go to the bank, fill up the gas tank, buy non perishables, buy ice,
get some gas for the grill, stuff yard deco under the bushes, bring in rare staghorns, bungie the furniture on the patio into one big glob, put up the shutters, and the list goes on. We know the routine by heart. They have built 2 story homes on either side of me so at least I have a buffer there. There goes my food in the freezer again. Not to mention I was supposed to close on my house in St. A. next week and get this house ready to sell. Be lucky if I have a house left. On a happy note, ah, well ah, well gee..............
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twig125silver
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posted on October 19, 2005 05:22:34 AM new
I hope all of this is over before my parents head down in early December. They were looking to buy a winter home, but I'm beginning to wonder if there will be anything habitable for sale.
You will all be in my prayers. Hopefully it will fizzle out, but for some reason, I believe that's just wishful thinking.
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bizzycrocheting
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posted on October 19, 2005 05:45:15 AM new
So far, it looks like it is headed for Naples. That is about 2 hours south of me. I'm keeping a very close eye on it. Good luck, Niel.
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gina50
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posted on October 19, 2005 06:38:51 AM new
My mother who is 82 lives in Port Charlotte by herself got thru Charlie ok with just a little damage to her house. She was very lucky since most homes in her neighborhood lost their roofs.
We just sold her house that's going to close on Nov. 12th and I am going down next week to start to pack so we can move her into an assisted living home and she has to have major surgery in Punta Gorda in the next few weeks so I am very worried.
I just called her to tell her to go get ice, bottled water, non pershable foods and so on because she did nothing to prepare for Charlie. I hope she listens this time because she did nothing to prepare for Charlie and was without electricity for quite a while and didn't have enough food to eat and so on plus it was hot as hell. At least now it's not as hot in case there is no electricity to run the a/c
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sparkz
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posted on October 19, 2005 12:29:01 PM new
Niel...Better use some strong bungee cords on that patio stuff. At 175 mph sustained winds, Wilma is the most intense Atlantic hurrican on record. It will likely lose some strength as it enters the cooler waters of the gulf, but will still make landfall as a 3 or 4. The NHC acknowledges the high margin of error when trying to predict landfall this far out, so it could strike anywhere from Key West to Pensacola. The real danger is when it crosses Florida and emerges into the Atlantic it is likely to be attracted to a low pressure system over the great lakes in 4 days and make a second landfall in New England which could be devastating after the severe flooding they have had this past week.
A $75.00 solid state device will always blow first to protect a 25 cent fuse ~ Murphy's Law
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niel35
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posted on October 19, 2005 12:53:41 PM new
Rite Sparky - will use some rope too. If it blows it blows. Just rented a 10 x 10 storage locker so will put some stuff in there. The pressure seems to be rising and it is 165 last I heard. We will get a report at 4PM
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sparkz
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posted on October 19, 2005 02:01:37 PM new
What's really frustrating is it's difficult to evacuate at this point unless you have a plane ticket to Seattle or somewhere else west of Texas. Since it's highly uncertain where it will land, anywhere you go could take you closer to the impact area instead of away from it. The track path that is shown by the NHC is predicated on a couple of specific events occuring elsewhere at a specific time to provide guidance for the storm. If any of these things fails to occur, the track can change drastically. This thing could easily end up in Texas or Lousiana.
A $75.00 solid state device will always blow first to protect a 25 cent fuse ~ Murphy's Law
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tOMWiii
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posted on October 19, 2005 03:07:10 PM new
As Ralphie notes:
"If a butterfly in the Amazon..."
"AGREEMENT AMONG THE TRACK GUIDANCE MODELS...WHICH HAD BEEN VERY GOOD
OVER THE PAST COUPLE OF DAYS...HAS COMPLETELY COLLAPSED TODAY. THE
06Z RUNS OF THE GFS...GFDL...AND NOGAPS MODELS ACCELERATED WILMA
RAPIDLY TOWARD NEW ENGLAND UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A LARGE LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM IN THE GREAT LAKES REGION. ALL THREE OF THESE
MODELS HAVE BACKED OFF OF THIS SOLUTION...WITH THE GFDL SHOWING AN
EXTREME CHANGE...WITH ITS 5-DAY POSITION SHIFTING A MERE 1650 NMI
FROM ITS PREVIOUS POSITION IN MAINE TO THE WESTERN TIP OF CUBA.
THERE IS ALMOST AS MUCH SPREAD IN THE 5-DAY POSITIONS OF THE 12Z
GFS ENSEMBLE MEMBERS...WHICH RANGE FROM THE YUCATAN TO WELL EAST OF
THE DELMARVA PENINSULA. WHAT THIS ILLUSTRATES IS THE EXTREME
SENSITIVITY OF WILMA'S FUTURE TRACK TO ITS INTERACTION WITH THE
GREAT LAKES LOW."
 
[ edited by tOMWiii on Oct 19, 2005 03:07 PM ]
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sparkz
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posted on October 19, 2005 03:37:18 PM new
Tom...The portion that followed that statement is what would have me worrid if I lived on the gulf coast...<<OVER THE PAST COUPLE OF DAYS...WILMA HAS BEEN
MOVING SLIGHTLY TO THE LEFT OR SOUTH OF THE MODEL GUIDANCE...AND
THE LEFT-MOST OF THE GUIDANCE SOLUTIONS ARE NOW SHOWING WILMA
DELAYING OR MISSING THE CONNECTION WITH THE LOW. I HAVE SLOWED THE
OFFICIAL FORECAST JUST A LITTLE BIT AT THIS TIME...BUT IF WILMA
CONTINUES TO MOVE MORE TO THE LEFT THAN EXPECTED...SUBSTANTIAL
CHANGES TO THE OFFICIAL FORECAST MAY HAVE TO BE MADE DOWN THE LINE.
NEEDLESS TO SAY...CONFIDENCE IN THE FORECAST TRACK...ESPECIALLY THE
TIMING...HAS DECREASED CONSIDERABLY.>>
IOW, they THINK it's gonna hit Florida, but they're not going to bet the farm on it just yet.
A $75.00 solid state device will always blow first to protect a 25 cent fuse ~ Murphy's Law
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sanmar
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posted on October 19, 2005 06:46:59 PM new
This is the worst hurricane evewr out of the Atlantic. Winds of 160 MPH with gusts to 195. The track at 7:00PM PST is still not determined , but it still looks like FLA. I have a cousin in Naples, hope they will survive it.
Life Is Too Short To Drink Bad Wine
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sparkz
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posted on October 19, 2005 07:08:07 PM new
Sanmar...The track shown at the top of this page is the official NWS track for 5 PM EDT. It will update at 11:00 PM EDT which is one hour from now. It updates 4 times a day, at 5 and 11 except for radical changes or as it approaches landfall, in which case there will be interim updates.
A $75.00 solid state device will always blow first to protect a 25 cent fuse ~ Murphy's Law
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