posted on May 3, 2001 06:20:20 AM new
Here in Australia we have always been known as a country where we like to have a bet.
In recent years though gambling has got out of control. There isn't a club, pub or hotel that doesn't have poker machines.
Casino's have sprung up across the length of the country.
According to a documentary I recently watched America is also undergoing a gambling boom.
Misery and bankruptcy are common results suffered by people who get caught up in the excitement of gambling. It is out of control.
In very recent times we now have a huge explosion of on-line gambling venues. How much more misery will this bring to people?
I'm not a wowser. I enjoy having a bet now and then, but I have never let myself get carried away as so many people seem to be doing these days.
I don't believe that you should, or could, ban gambling, but how much is enough? What as a society should we be doing to avoid the misery that gambling to excess can cause?
I don't know the answer, but something has got to be done.
I'd be interested to hear what you think.
posted on May 3, 2001 07:19:35 AM new
Hi b&b, I make my living playing the horses (harness racing) so I'm a little biased here. I see gamblers with a problem almost daily, it's tough. But like the alcoholic, help is available if they want it. Don't know what is going on in the States (I'm Canadian eh) but here slot machines have been introduced at many tracks. They are very popular. Casinos are few however. VLT's are banned in most places in Canada, I think.
This is controversial, but one method to help the losing gambler is to teach them how to win. Problem solved. This has more to do with horseplayers though, very tough if not impossible to beat casino games in the long run. Horses are a special case because the knowledgeable player can have the odds in his favour.
Talking about addictions, I saw a TV documentary about a different way to treat alcoholics. Instead of abstinence, and the longing that accompanies it, the participants in the program just reduce their drinking. They get so many drink "credits" per week. They can use them up all in one night (i.e., a Saturday night drunk) or space them out during the week. Seems to work for some people.
Anyway to get back on topic, no, gambling shouldn't be banned. The problem won't go away by making it illegal. I imagine it's the same way in Australia, that a portion of the dollars wagered, i.e., taxed, go into gambling programs to help those who need it. Perhaps a more enlightened or creative way is needed to help these people. Dunno.
posted on May 3, 2001 09:21:36 AM new
Hi Bits,
Well, I myself have never gambled for money. I did however get hooked on PC gambling and now I am internet gambling, but not for money. It is addictive! I would love to go out for real and drop some actual dollars instead of cyber dollars. But just once. Honest!
Firstover, I used to work at a DUI school and we got all the liturature about alcoholics and what not. There was a news item about the lady that was spearheading the method you speak of with the drink credits. She got busted for DUI.. I guess she used a weeks worth of credits in one night! I personally think that if you are hooked on something the only way to beat it is to abstain completely, while realizing that if you fall off the wagon (be it gambling, drinking or smoking) that you are not immediately a "failure". You've just got to get back on the wagon.
posted on May 3, 2001 09:38:27 AM new
It was almost always agreed that organized gambling was destructive and in some ways immoral. Then government decided it was too easy a way to make money. Nothing about state sponsorship gives any morality to gambling.
All it does for me is further erode any trace of respect I had for the political system.
If you want to win at the casino game buy stock. If you don't mind having dirty hands.
If you want to make money at horses learn enough to know the riders and bet the promising upcoming jockies to place. They get good mounts and they stand a very good chance of placing if not winning.
posted on May 4, 2001 06:40:30 AM new
Hi sugar, there's is nothing funny about DUI but I couldn't help laughing at the irony. D'oh!
Hi Becky, I'll describe in general terms how it is done, but like most things in life it's easier said than done. Anyone can learn the theory but putting it into practice requires large amounts of discipline and, er, existential stamina
Putting handicapping aside (there are many ways to identify contenders in a race), here is the math behind beating the races. What you are looking for is a horse that is paying a greater amount than his actual chance of winning the race. This is called an overlay or value. For instance, let's say that in a 10 horse race you have identified 3 horses with the best chances to win. You then assign a probability of winning to each horse based on your handicapping. For example:
Horse A 30%
Horse B 25%
horse C 25%
The rest of the field is given the remainder of the chances
or as stated in terms of odds
Horse A 5-2
Horse B 3-1
Horse C 3-1
These are the true or fair odds, based on your handicapping, of each horse. For a horse to be worthy of a wager we demand it go off as an overlay, i.e., at odds greater than it's realistic chance of winning. Most players want 50% over the fair odds to allow for the track take-out (taxes, purses, etc.) and errors in our handicapping. So for one of our example horses to be worthy of a bet we need odds of at least:
Horse A 4-1
Horse B 9-2
Horse C 9-2
So, let's say the actual track odds are:
Horse A 3-2
Horse B 3-1
Horse C 6-1
our bet would be Horse C, the only overlay among our contenders. This doesn't mean that C has the best chance of winning, but it will pay more than its realistic chance of winning while the others will pay less than their true chances. What we are doing is not trying to pick winners but pick bets.
Here's a simpler example that may help you understand. Let's say you are betting on coin tosses. Heads (or tails) has a 50% chance of coming up every toss. The true (fair) odds are therefore 1-1. If the payout is even money ($1 back for every dollar bet) then neither side has an advantage. In the long run you will break even. However, if the coin tosser is offering odds of 11-10 then you will, in the long run, win $1 for every ten that you bet. If he offers 10-11 then you will lose one dollar for every ten you bet (run away!) Again, what we are looking for in racing is that "coin toss" (horse) that is paying greater than its true odds.
How this differs from casino games is the casino has the odds in their favour for almost every bet. Blackjack card counters can identify when they have an advantage and bet accordingly but this is very difficult to hide from the casino bosses who are on the lookout for these players. Also the blackjack players must bet every hand when they are at a table, even when the house has the advantage; the horseplayer can wait until a profitable betting situation arises at the track. You won't get kicked out for passing races where no value emerges.
So that's the thoery. To actually win at this game the player must have discipine to pass races as required, know how to bet (money management), keep records and of course be a good handicapper (which is a huge topic in and of itself). But that's how it's done!
