posted on June 26, 2001 02:37:07 PM new
$1-SALE at Bidville - a preview
Well folks, Bidville's $1-SALE has been running for one week now so let's take a look at the sell-through rate for the event.
There are currently 6,819 live auctions on which there are 315 auctions with bids; thus far there are 1,417 closed auctions [and not relisted] of which about 825 auctions had bids.
Assuming there were 6,819 auctions listed last week, then the breakdown was 1,417 closed with bids and the other 5,402 auctions had no bids and were relisted.
posted on June 26, 2001 02:50:44 PM new
Today's issue of the TAGNotes Newsletter had the following info:
Bidville Active $1 Items: 6745
Active Items With Bids: 1000
Assuming these numbers are true and there are no reserves on any items, the sell through is 14.8%. It does not matter how many items closed and how many did not close. They also claim:
"In Gallery" Dollar Sale Items: 1547
"In Gallery" With Bids: 463
Sell through = 29.9%
Featured Dollar Sale Items: 313
Featured Dollar Items With Bids: 173
Sell through = 55.3%
[ edited by gottaknow88 on Jun 26, 2001 02:53 PM ]
posted on June 26, 2001 03:01:55 PM new
There is a message about this on BiDville under the Prez only catagory. I believe that gottaknow's #'s are more inline with what they are saying about the $1.00 sale, on BidVille.
posted on June 26, 2001 03:06:02 PM new
gottaknow88 >
Assuming these numbers are true and there are no reserves on any items, the sell through is 14.8%. It does not matter how many items closed and how many did not close.
Okay, let's make take a closer look.
XYZ AuctionSite is running a $1-SALE and it gets underway with 300 auctions with three relists. The first week 100 are sold and 200 are relisted; the second week another 100 are sold and 100 are relisted; and the third week the final 100 are sold.
So is the sell-through rate 100% because all the items sold?
You got me thinking ... so I checked the site and you are missing a few things.
The bids don't end on page 3. The "featured" items with bids end there. A few more pages and you run into all the non-featured with bids (if you can stand waiting for the pages to load). These bids end on page 12. I didn't count but would love it if you did.
Secondly, your statistical logic is flawed. This "sale" has only been happening for a week according to the site. So, even if you were correct with 17%, that is a one week figure, not two weeks.
Thirdly, even if it were a two week figure, you can't divide the figure by two and come up with 8% as you did. Using that logic in reverse, the sell-through would be 120% after 15 weeks. (Think about it. It's true.) Remember, you divided everything by two. So the reverse logic is multiplying everything by two each week. It can't be done and is statistically incorrect.
Oh, and in your example, the sell through of 300 items relisted 3 times with 100 closing per week is:
1st week: 33% (100/300 auctions)
2nd week: 50% (100/200 auctions)
3rd week: 100% (100/100 auctions)
Average weekly sell through is 61% (33 + 50+ 100)/3 = 61%
[ edited by gottaknow88 on Jun 26, 2001 03:20 PM ]
[ edited by gottaknow88 on Jun 26, 2001 03:34 PM ]
You got me thinking ... so I checked the site and you are missing a few things.
The bids don't end on page 3. The "featured" items with bids end there. A few more pages and you run into all the non-featured with bids (if you can stand waiting for the pages to load). These bids end on page 12. I didn't count but would love it if you did.
Oops. You're right. They do end on page 12 so let me redo the math with 1,200 current auctions with bids.
Anyway, I have an excuse. Went to the dentist again today and my nips are still lumb.
Secondly, your statistical logic is flawed. This "sale" has only been happening for a week according to the site. So, even if you were correct with 17%, that is a one week figure, not two weeks.
Yup, but I assumed there were 6,819 at the end of week one and 6,819 auctions at the start of week two. That's a two week period and seems a reasonable approximation since I don't have the number of auctions each day and therefore don't know the average daily number auctions for the first week.
Thirdly, even if it were a two week figure, you can't divide the figure by two and come up with 8% as you did. Using that logic in reverse, the sell-through would be 120% after 15 weeks. (Think about it. It's true.) Remember, you divided everything by two. So the reverse logic is multiplying everything by two each week. It can't be done and is statistically incorrect.
Not exactly true. Remember, the standard is a WEEKLY SELL-THROUGH RATE.
Oh, and in your example, the sell through of 300 items relisted 3 times with 100 closing per week is: 1st week: 33% (100/300 auctions) 2nd week: 66% (100/200 auctions) 3rd week: 100% (100/100 auctions) Average weekly sell through is 66% (33 + 66 + 100)/3 = 66%
One error: Second week is 100/200 or 50%. So the average is (33 + 50 + 100) / 3 = 61%.
posted on June 26, 2001 03:58:16 PM new
Please also be aware that each page is approximately 100 listings. I know you don't like approximate, Dimview, but even just some quick reckoning and being gracious let us say there are 11 pages of bids against 69 pages of listings, I am no mathematical genius, but it ocvious that is more 8.4%. This is not counting already closed successful and the "TAKE IT" auctions.
Now, I realize that this does not come close to Ebay ratios, or even the "claimed" sell through rate of Yawho? However, I think that most involved in the sale are satisfied that it is even more successful then they had hoped. It has led to increased traffic on non sale items, and there are a lot of items with multiple bids. One, I believe is even above $40.00. I know for a fact that lister is pleased as can be.
After the sale, we do expect a drop in traffic, but are certain that some will remain, and others will check back.
posted on June 26, 2001 04:15:53 PM new
Yeah - I corrected the 50% deal before you posted.
Your top numbers make sense now. The "weighting" point is well taken but I'm not sure I'd weight this data after only 8 days (bidville example) or 3 weeks (your example). You'd need to weight the data over 6 months or so. With only 3 data points, an unweighted figure is fair enough. After all, in your example, there is a 100% sell through after 3 weeks. Does it seem fair to claim the site has an 11% sell through per week? Definitely not. If ANY site can prove they have 100% at 3 weeks - I'm there. However, if they stated it as 11% per week - big deal. (And both are true.)
From reading these threads it appears to me that you set the standard of a one week sell through based on the data you had available from some of the sites. And based on the fact that 7 days is probably the average listing time.
So, what is your final verdict on BV's $1 sale? What is the official Dimview Sell-through? Drum roll please....
[ edited by gottaknow88 on Jun 26, 2001 04:17 PM ]
posted on June 26, 2001 04:31:51 PM new
gottaknow88,
I prefer the weighted over the unweighted average. Even though Bidville is a free site, you really have to consider the relists that are needed to effect a sale since that increases the total listing fees considerably.
My estimate of Bidville's sell-through rate prior to the $1-SALE was something like 0.1% to 0.2% as I recall, so getting something in the 15% range has to be considered excellent.
Let's hope that it attracts some new bidders and buyers, and that they decide to hang around for awhile.
posted on June 28, 2001 01:27:27 PM new
Ya'll have lost me playing with numbers. You can pretty much get them to say whatever you want from what I am seeing. LOL
As far as I am concerned (my auctions) it was a HUGE sucess. Not only on the items I had in the sale but on a LOT of my other auctions of similiar items.
I have been to busy emailing and packaging to be counting. I FINALLY got a chance yesterday to go do some bidding myself. (better go recount the numbers. I put a pretty good dent in the ones with no bids. LOL) It has felt like my old Yahoo days since this sell has started. I'm sure it will taper off some but luckily I am in a catogory that has a LOT of repeat business. And there are several of us selling in it so that there is a GOOD variety at fair prices and shipping and buyers should be able to find pretty much anything they want in the scrapbooking catagory from one of us. If we could just get that in ALL catogories we would have it made !!!
posted on June 28, 2001 09:36:45 PM new
Did anyone take into account the variations of the keyword $1-sale ?
When I first went there to see how the sale was going the banner link to them only searched exactly "$1-sale"
so I did my own searches for $1 sale ( no - ) $1 no reserve, $1 promo sale etc etc. Some listed within the timeline of the promo didn't include the keyword at all in the title but had the promo button in the auction description.
I found there to be a lot of bidding going on at a good rate for the time I was looking.
posted on June 29, 2001 06:11:26 AM new
lovepotions >
Did anyone take into account the variations of the keyword $1-sale?
I don't know what others are doing, but I am only looking at those auctions listed by sellers capable of following directions by putting $1-SALE in their auction titles.
Even then there is small error as I found several idiots that put $1-SALE in the auction title and then began the bidding under $1, some as low as 1¢.
posted on June 29, 2001 08:33:17 AM new
reston_ray >
Two knowledgable people, using the same numbers and coming up with both different but accurate conclusions equals = 100% confusion.
I like the "how heavy is my purse" formula.
Aren't statistics fun?
The "problem" with determining sell-through rates at the free auction sites is that items are listed, then relisted ad nauseum, so any sell-through rate is overstated.
This isn't found at the for pay auction sites because sellers make one or two attempts to sell their items. As a result, the sell-through rates for these sites are more accurate.
posted on June 29, 2001 08:52:08 AM new
I'm not trying to argue here just trying to understand.. as I stated before I think you can make numbers say just about anything you want. And it can ALL be right. LOL
What I am trying to understand is what the relist part has to do with it. For my things for the sell I started MOST of them on the first day and set them to end in 2 weeks (when the sell was over) and then as I listed things throughtout the 2 week period I had them end as close to the end date as possible with the choices I had. I normally list for 7 days.
You stated that if things on the pay sights don't sell in the first couple tries people normally wait a while to try and relist... they weren't sold just taken off.
At the free sites I agree people would try for longer... but I don't see how it affects the sell through rate.
If it doesn't sell the first time would it not be "counted" as a "new" item being sold? It seems to me no longer trying to sell an item and giving up on it and still having it sitting around is just as bad or worse than keeping relisting (maybe with some changes). The right person WILL come along eventaually. LOL
I have had things that I had to relist maybe 5 times with hardly any lookers then the 5th time have a bidding war on it. You just never know what people will be looking for.
I can't say I agree with you on this one. You're digging way to deep.
If I sold all 200 of my items in 2 weeks, I would brag about a 100% sell-through over 2 weeks. And, I'd quit my day job. You're also discounting the fact that some people run their auctions for 10, 20 and even 30 days. Why? Because of Buy It Now. It doesn't matter how long your auction is with buy it now. List for 30 days - sell all your items - man, that's a 100% 30 day sell-through. Not a statistically manipulated 10% per week.
Remember, it was you who decided that the standard is a weekly sell-through. You did it to make comparing each site standardized. So, in my book, relisting never matters.
Bottom Line - If you know the number of items available and the number sold per week, the ratio is your weekly sell through. Is it accurate? No way. Will it help compare one site to another? Definitely. And that is all it should be used for.
[ edited by gottaknow88 on Jun 29, 2001 09:34 AM ]
posted on June 29, 2001 09:35:04 AM new
To the extreme then, someone listing items at Bidville with the two-year relisting option, then selling all of them during the 99th week, can report a 100% sell-through rate.
posted on June 29, 2001 09:42:16 AM new
To the other extreme - selling 100% of 10 items per week = 0% sell thru per minute.
You're missing the point. These number sshould be used to compare one site to another. For that, they can be very helpful. And that's where it ends. The numbers by themselves are inherently and completely inaccurate.
BTW, Yahoo could use another number spinster like you! LOL.
posted on June 29, 2001 10:28:32 AM new
If I listed 200 items for 2 weeks and had sold them ALL by the end of that 2 weeks. There is NO WAY I would tell anyone I had a 25% sale through rate !!!
I would be VERY excited and let EVERYONE know what had happened. I would even tell them the bad news that I had to list a second time to get them all sold. But I don't think them OR me would beleive a 25% Sell through is what I had.
I think it has much more to do with a steady stream of bids per day than wether everything sold the first time I list. As long as I have 10-15 auctions end a day... I don't mind relisting the others. Some days I have more sometimes less but as long as the average stays about the same or increases... Hey, I'm happy!!! My personal sell through rate at bidville over the last 3-4 weeks has been no better or worse than it was when I was at Yahoo. Luckily I sell something that the people that found me during the sell will be back. It's not easy finding this stuff listed on the auctions because a lot of it is smaller priced items that you CAN'T afford to list on ebay or yahoo EVEN IF they sold first time guaranteed.... for me Bidville is IT. I agree advertising is needed. I am a primier and primier plus member both and Hope that this will be spent on some advertising. I wouldn't mind a FVF but a .30 or even .25 listing fee would kill me as most of my items go for under $2.00 a lot of the stickers .30-.50. I'd have to redo my items and put together packages.
posted on June 29, 2001 10:39:46 AM new
gottaknow88 >
To the other extreme - selling 100% of 10 items per week = 0% sell thru per minute.
That's just plain silly, unless you listed your items with a "one minute auction" option.
I think that seven days is probably the median duration for auctions, hence I estimate sell-through rates on that basis.
You're missing the point. These number sshould be used to compare one site to another. For that, they can be very helpful. And that's where it ends. The numbers by themselves are inherently and completely inaccurate.
So when eBay says 50% sell-through rate and I estimate Bidville (overall) at around 0.2% and ePier at around 2%, you dispute that?
Okay, I'm certainly open to more accurate numbers. What are the correct figures with the mathematics to back them up?
BTW, Yahoo could use another number spinster like you! LOL.
I have an idea. Maybe we could multiply these tiny sell-through rates by a finagle factor.
posted on June 29, 2001 11:13:08 AM new
If the methods you used in calculating Bidville and epier's rates are IDENTICAL, then they mean alot. That is assuming your data (number of items total and number of items sold in a week) is correct.
eBay provides numbers that do not fit the above formula. Even if they are truthful, the formula used is different than your formula.
Hey, Yahoo provides lots of numbers. Do you believe them? I don't.
posted on June 29, 2001 11:20:46 AM new
gottaknow88 >
If the methods you used in calculating Bidville and epier's rates are IDENTICAL, then they mean alot. That is assuming your data (number of items total and number of items sold in a week) is correct.
I think the methodology for comparing numbers for Bidville, ePier and SellYourItem are pretty much the same.
eBay provides numbers that do not fit the above formula. Even if they are truthful, the formula used is different than your formula.
I think their reported sell-through rate is quite close to a seven-day period, particularly since there's now an extra charge to run auctions for ten days, and therefore comparable to the estimates I've made for the free sites.
Hey, Yahoo provides lots of numbers. Do you believe them? I don't.
Yahoo!Auctions is a unique case. They provide numbers alright, but not a bit of the raw data to back them up. So we don't know if there numbers are specific for Yahoo!Auctions or Yahoo!Japan, or both added together.
I haven't had time to click through some of the categories to get a handle on the sell-through rate, but let me just say I have my doubts about what they've reported.
posted on June 29, 2001 12:45:19 PM new
Bidville does not provide sales data, so you need to look at "closed auctions" for some representative categories, then relate them to the sales at the same categories at ePier.
ePier hasn't updated their sales data for four days now. Not a good sign.
May I give you a very small example of why your numbers may not be quite accurate. I am one of those dimwitted sellers who made a mistake when I posted my $1-sale items - all three of them! Two of my titles read $1.-sale and one read $1-sale. That little dot I dimwittingly placed after the "1" caused the two items to be left out of the sale listings.
I listed for 14 days, no relists, the total "run" of the sale. All 3 items sold. I see a 100% sell thru here, yet, you would only find a 30% sell thru.
From what I can figure out, according to your method of calculating, had I listed twice for 5 days each, I would have had a 50% sell thru. Simply not true! Even on Ebay, the second listing would have been free, as it sold.
I can't argue numbers with you because I am not a numbers person, however, I take a "dimview" of your logic....no disrespect intended.
I further disagree with your appraisal that sellers do not continually relist items on Ebay if they do not sell within two listings. I repeat listings constantly...why?..."dumb", you may say....not so...Often, my items sell for twice their value on Ebay....which makes it quite worth the extra in listing fees and the time to do the relisting.
I'm also curious as to why there are 3 new posts on the same subject when the statistics and logic are all on this thread?
