posted on January 5, 2001 03:58:45 PM new
This brain dead Henry Blodget is probably in reality a monkey sitting in front of a chart of Nasdaq stocks throwing darts (or something else) at the chart. Wherever they stick, BUY!
Enjoy, people. Here's a guy who (as I said in other threads) knows NOTHING about stocks, at the picking of which he has a pathetic record, and LESS THAN NOTHING about online auctions, if less than nothing is possible. There MAROONS may be the main people Yahoo is trying to impress with their moves. They certainly aren't considering us.
PALO ALTO, Calif., Jan 5 (Reuters) - Two days after he issued a note cheering Yahoo! Inc's <YHOO.O> new fees on its auction service, Merrill Lynch Internet analyst Henry Blodget Friday drastically scaled back his estimates of how much money the fees would generate.
"We believe that the net revenue added in 2001 will be closer to $16 to $30 million, rather than the $30 to $80 million we initially estimated," Blodget wrote in a research report.
He said the original estimate had resulted from the assumption that the fee would apply to all Yahoo's auctions worldwide, when in reality it will only be imposed on U.S. auction listings.
***HORSEPUCKEY. He cut estimates 2 days after he made them more than 50%. The info that the fees wouldn't be imposed on foreign sellers was available when he first did his ummm "RESEARCH," and I'm SURE if he even understood what due diligence was, he could have picked up the phone and gotten REAL information.
AND, this means that more than 50% of auction sellers on Yahoo are outside the U.S.
I don't know the numbers, but I would bet my backside against a dollar that that's not the case either. He should have just explained it this way-
I'm a dumb**s trying to cover my dumb**s
***
Yahoo has been hurt by the slowdown in Internet advertising, and has come under pressure to diversify into other non-advertising revenue streams. On Tuesday it said it would start charging a fee of between 20 cents and $2.25 on its auction listings.
posted on January 5, 2001 05:15:25 PM new
16 to 30 million seems like a rather wide range not to mention 30 to 80 million. And a 50% reduction in an 80 million estimate was 40 milliom back when I learned math.
If he can't keep simple math correct I find it difficult to believe his analysis of more complicated numbers.
He speaks of net revenues. Depending on how you define net, the projected revenue is likely much smaller.
YAHOO admits they expect a huge reduction in the number of listings. Assuming approx. 1 million paying listings per 10 day listing period between late Feb. (we can have free listings and 2 relists if posted by Jan 9th} and Dec 30th the equation is something like 30 periods X 1 million auctions X 20 cents each which equals $6,000,000.
Corrections would have to be made to this number for free listing credits accumulated in YWallets, greater starting prices than the min., reserve fees, refunds for NPB and reductions for whatever "Net" accounts for in deductions against gross revenues.
Even his corrected (oops I missed half the world)estimates at the lowest end is over 2 and 1/2 times the number my equation provides.
And this man is paid to give advise?
A thought occured to me during the past few days. This whole industary is being run by people who have not made their businesses profitable. Amazon losses money, eBay only shows a profit due to investment income and not from operations, many have just been spending investors money.
The ONLY large group of business that have consistantly made profit has been the small business auction sellers.
We make money and they keep trying to figure out how to do the same BUT won't listen to us.
