reamond
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posted on November 22, 2000 12:32:02 PM
Chrysler MB just announced the shut down of 3 N American plants after losing $500 million last quarter. GM announced sales decline.
The Internet and eBay may soon experience its first recession.
Any ideas what will fly on the Net in a recession ?
Time to pull in the wings on listings and fees ?
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junquemama
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posted on November 22, 2000 01:00:12 PM
The last time this happened during the 80s,
Smalls and collectables suffered.Furniture
Always did well,Jewelry and big glass marbles
Were a frenzy buy.Frenzy is good!Not real sure how those markets will react on the internet.I do miss the dealer to dealer buys,Not much of it going on anymore since the online auctions started up.
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reamond
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posted on November 22, 2000 01:14:47 PM
The auto layoffs coupled with the dotcom layoffs and bankruptacies means we should see the ripple effect within 60 days.
Analysts are calling for the Fed to act [lower rates].
I hope it is not just fad markets that prosper- I always steer clear of them- no Beanies at my house !!
Do you think Internet usage will increase or decrease during a recission ?
I can see a lot more people with time on their hands to surf - but I can also see Net ISP service being the first thing to go to economize.
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loosecannon
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posted on November 22, 2000 01:21:19 PM
Just one more excellent reason to sell Internationally.
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reamond
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posted on November 22, 2000 01:26:20 PM
The only problem with International is when the US sneezes the rest of the world gets a bad cold.
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loosecannon
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posted on November 22, 2000 01:31:16 PM
Even if the economy turns, it could still be OK. More things will be offered at wholesale prices, perhaps less, it can be sold for less, etc. If something happens, I see it as a relative thing. Not 1929 all over again.
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amalgamated2000
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posted on November 22, 2000 01:32:16 PM
Do you think Internet usage will increase or decrease during a recission ? I can see a lot more people with time on their hands to surf - but I can also see Net ISP service being the first thing to go to economize.
That's a good question, especially considering that most if not all of the free internet providers will be gone if there is any kind of economic downturn. They rely on advertising revenue that will dry up very quickly, particularly considering that advertising on these services is not particularly effective.
However, there are many very low cost non-ad supported ISP's. I think AT&T is offering service for as low as $4.95.
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mballai
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posted on November 22, 2000 01:37:16 PM
After a long stretch of prosperity, a certain amount of correction is inevitable.
This is not a recession, it's a reality check.
I have to tell you that the Internet is still one of the very best places to buy many items. I spent a couple of hours shopping around for something recently. Everyone had it, but no one had the color I wanted. Ten minutes on the Internet, I found it with the right color at a good price and the item shipped next morning. I rarely look at the web for big savings, but the selection is enormous.
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reamond
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posted on November 22, 2000 01:42:56 PM
Amal- you're right- one "free" ISP service just announced that it will slap usage limits on usage hogs and also put more ads on their screens and make them pay fees for excess usage - they said that 5% of the "free" service users are using 80% of the bandwidth !! Imagine that.
Loose- We don't need "1929 all over again" to see how Net commerce will react- the economy in the late seventies and eighties will do.
Oil is holding at 3 times its PPB when this "miracle" economy started. Oil effects everything.
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junquemama
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posted on November 22, 2000 01:44:51 PM
Reamond,Entertainment always seem to do well,
And of course food.The workers who were layed off, will probley be on the internet looking
for their own buisness.My puttor is sometimes
My entertainment,Sometimes my buisness.Hard call, but I imagine there will be an increase
in computor useage.The marbles that use to sell so high,are now a dime a dozen.The jewelry was sterling and gold.The metals will rise,(That is the way it is suppose to happen.)
The gold and silver markets have been dead so long.It will be nice to see those markets perking again.Resale & used will be a good market,In clothes,sundries,pots,pans,Vans,
Motorhomes,toys,As well as medical items for the disabled,Wheelchairs,walkers,potty seats.
TVs,steros.I live close to Mexico,These items are good anytime.Hope I didnt bore you with the old days stuff. 
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loosecannon
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posted on November 22, 2000 01:45:30 PM
"we should see the ripple effect within 60 days."
And the ripple effect just could be more people shopping the net for quality used goods.
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reamond
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posted on November 22, 2000 01:53:26 PM
I too remember metals moving with inflation which was caused by oil prices. I also remember not going too many places due to the price of gas.
With layoffs or impending layoffs, purchases of new goods will decline. But I think purchase of used goods with be of the necessity type. PC sales have already declined and I read an article yesterday that said used "refurfished" PC sales have really spiked.
Will eBay buyers all become sellers ? Isn't that what is already happening ?
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ilalum89
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posted on November 22, 2000 01:59:05 PM
Just to clarify...the 3 DaimlerChrysler plants aren't being shutdown permanently, The shutdown is temporary and only scheduled to take place next week to help balance vehicle inventories. This is a somewhat common occurance in the automobile industry when certain vehicles aren't selling as quickly as they are being built creating a higher inventory at the dealerships than the company likes.
Of course shutting down a plant for a week isn't the best thing that company wants to do but it isn't quite yet time to lock the doors on those particular plants and send everyone home permanently.
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VeryModern
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posted on November 22, 2000 02:14:19 PM
I say internet usage will expand since more people will stay home, and it is highly inexpensive entertainment.
Value will sell.
Death to scalping of any and all types of goods. (exceptions as always the high high end since the ultra rich are always insulated from any pinch). No will be paying over retail for anything.
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macandjan
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posted on November 22, 2000 02:16:01 PM
If there is a big economic turn down neccessities will do good because people will be looking for what they must buy at a good price. eBay is mostly bargin hunters now. High end luxery goods never have a bad market. It tales a major problem before the really rich cut back their spending. It is the impulse and gift items for upper middle class people that will suffer.
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dman3
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posted on November 22, 2000 02:19:31 PM
I wouldnt worry to much about internet use in the event of a slow down really.
Remember the late 80s earily 90s the golf war and that ressesion this is when the net popularity began to soar and become known The web as it is now didnt yet exist but internet popularity email IRC and AOL , netscape and windows became pretty much house hold names at that time.
Some collectables actually hold there value hold there appeal to many in ressesion Coins,stamps,jewlery,gold, silver .
Thing that would suffer high priced unnessary services Personal cell phones, cable net access most will figure they have to pay the phone bill any how and use this to connect to the net.
Credit cards will suffer and most of these so called third party players like paypal will have it rougher.
Ebay will suffer a lot I think only the biggest sellers who saved some of there money from sales for a rainy day who can pay with no interest debit cards will servive best. if a slow down lasted for any length of time ebay would more then likely look to more big companys like disney for income and cut there rate or make listing basically free till you sell make there FVF a little higher pay as you go if you sell.
over all I think the internet and technology will do well this industry did well before in a resession and it did well long before this mad rush to the stock market.
http://www.Dman-N-Company.com
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VeryModern
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posted on November 22, 2000 02:22:16 PM
oh yeah..
Don't forget the postal increase. Ane wait till the heating bills get here.
Sellers will have to cut their spending on non necessary services too.
The paypal, the u-pic, the del. confimation, the highlight, etc, etc, etc.
No more big spender.
When things are tight people really shy away from the garish and wasteful. They just aren't in the mood. This is why auctions are fading out. They waste time.
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reamond
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posted on November 22, 2000 02:26:52 PM
ilal- The week shut down is how it all started 25 years ago, they also reprted a $500 million loss on the quarter. In fact, mandatory overtime was the big auto union issue just 2 years ago. The shut downs to align inventory haven't been "normal" in nearly a decade. Model change over shut downs were also trimmed from 2 weeks to in some cases 7-10 days.
It was reprted not too long ago that there was over capacity in the auto industry, shortly thereafter Chrysler and MB merged.
Auto companies are going to have to shed capacity in a recession- the only question is which plants.
Look at this- Gateway down 49%/year, Motorola down 53%/year, AT&T down 61%/year, YaHoo down 70%/year, and heavy volume the day before thanksgiving ? The paper wealth is disintergrating.
[ edited by reamond on Nov 22, 2000 02:35 PM ]
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reamond
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posted on November 22, 2000 02:31:15 PM
I guess the Net will provide inexpensive entertainment in a recession.
But I think its growth will stall. I can't see a non-user going out and buying a PC to get online in a recession.
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SilkMoth
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posted on November 22, 2000 02:37:51 PM
"golf" war???
--------
not SilkMoth anywhere but here
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reamond
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posted on November 22, 2000 02:38:50 PM
Yeah- the "golf" war- Tiger Woods won it !!
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stockticker
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posted on November 22, 2000 02:47:21 PM
A good rule to follow in business:
Hope for the best but prepare for the worst.
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dman3
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posted on November 22, 2000 02:51:24 PM
actually as far as cold weather and heating bills go this winter I live in NY and at this point our heating and electric are 50% then last year at this time.
The weather has been pretty much with us its been wet all summer and looks like a snowy winter from the start they have in the western part of NY and snowny weather here usually holds off long streaches of super cold weather so its been damp here and we have seen snow several time already chilly nights very nice days , this means less hours of heat as well when it snows schools close some time there is unexspected time missed at work when the houses have bodys all day they requirer less heat at night.
I dont honestly think we will see any body in the goverenment say the R word non to soon
after all this slow down we are noticeing now was brought on by the feds who incressed rates to cause this very thing to happen in the name of our own good.
you are right in about 60 days we will feel the ripples from all this I beleave the frist ripple will be the price of gas and oil will do a big drop just before spring people will be holding tight to money and OPEC wont see its share drop they will pump crude like there is no tommorow to drop prices to get people Traveling and buying more to keep there sales from falling .
As well its my guess no matter who ends up winning this election This will be the end of OPECs fun with energy prices.
I see in the near future the US getting far more serious about Electric cars that are now showing promise and also the US opening up to more areas for US oil Production.
http://www.Dman-N-Company.com
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reamond
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posted on November 22, 2000 02:56:08 PM
I hope we have a mild Winter. The company I contract Natural Gas with refused renewal this yaer and said we would have to buy at market for the next year due to price uncertainties. Natural Gas and Heating oil reserves are near record lows.
I've heard an estimate of around $300 average per household in extra heating costs if we have a "regular" Winter.
I'm at a loss at how OPEC is overcome by the next President.
They still have us over a barrel [no pun intended]. If Iraq wanted to bring the Western economy down they could do it just by closing their taps. The others are already producing near capacity- so they claim.
Do you realize how long it would take to convert to electric vehicles ? They only perform well in mild climates anyway.
[ edited by reamond on Nov 22, 2000 03:01 PM ]
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stockticker
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posted on November 22, 2000 03:06:26 PM
I (along with everyone else in my province), am expecting two checks totalling Cdn.$300 (about US$200) from the provincial government - to compensate me for the higher cost of fuel. There will also be rebates on the monthly electricity bills. We're an oil rich province and the government is raking in revenues.
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reamond
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posted on November 22, 2000 03:12:27 PM
If oil prices stay up, I don't think the Fed lowering rates will be of much help.
Canada Govt compensation for high oil prices- be sure to have happy thoughts of us folks that don't get compensated when you cash those checks !!
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rancher24
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posted on November 22, 2000 03:35:34 PM
How 'bout just takin' a look at this thread & comin' up with some ideas....Good used, inexpensively priced essentials: household goods, clothing, etc.....&....In the colder climates: sweaters, slippers, robes, blankets, electric heaters.....I'm in the NE & am lucky enough to have a contract with my oil company & a locked in price for the entire 2000/2001 winter...BUT, I'm still not crankin' up the heat, nope, we're wearing lots of layers of clothes & slippers & extra blankets on the beds/couches.....
If all else fails, I'll just burn my eBay inventory for warmth & save myself $$ on fuel & "make" money that way!.....
~ Rancher
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Pocono
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posted on November 22, 2000 03:59:15 PM
With the last eight years being the most economically prosperous in history, it had to come to a slow.
I think the fear of having George Dubya in the White House has contributed greatly to the cut back in spending also.
People are afraid we will have to read his lips, and pay "no new taxes" all over again.
I bet he'll try to tax the "commoners" that use the Internet for all he can suck from them.
I'll miss Clinton, he sure was fun 
Wish he could run again...
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bubbahyide
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posted on November 22, 2000 04:05:16 PM
Talk about panic... Fact is that Chrysler products suck. Always last on quality and reliability reviews. People wised up and bought cars overseas. MB is consolidating to produce a product up to their standards. American management had to go.
BUY MB stock now.. in 3 years its going to pay you back well. Chrysler will be an American/German car and truly worth the money.
Thats all this is about... so if you want to go dig your bomb shelters have at it.. Ill be glad to sell to your bidders.
Poco.. bet you like that Esquire view of yer man Clinton... you do that for him often?
[ edited by bubbahyide on Nov 22, 2000 04:07 PM ]
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HartCottageQuilts
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posted on November 22, 2000 05:52:17 PM
We're an oil rich province and the government is raking in revenues
And people wonder why I think a confederacy (like Canada's) is sometimes more appealing than a republic (like the US)! (I'm serious.)
As far as "the fear of having George Dubya in the White House has contributed greatly to the cut back in spending also" - if you've been watching the market, every time the tide turns in favor of Gore, the market drops. Wait a few hours, looks like Bush will be prez, and stocks climb. And maybe you could 'splain to me how the president could "try to tax the 'commoners'" when it's Congress that does the taxing? Although the prez certainly sets the tone, all he can do is veto taxes that Congress proposes. Unlike Bad King John, he can't levy taxes on his own.
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