Re: "I do rely on Mutual Funds, but many of them lag and can be worse than picking your own stocks. Diversification is key and listening to all aspects of the market and the mavens whether you heed their "advice" or not. Forewarned is forearmed when it comes to downgrades, etc."
I'm no more a fan, actually even less of a fan, of mutual funds, if by that you mean actively managed funds. They will, by definition, on average lag the index that they're compared against. They also tend to chase hot stocks/sectors, a technique almost guaranteed to end poorly.
The "name of the game" is setting up intelligent asset allocations, in line with your time horizon, risk tolerance, diversification, tax situation, liquidity, etc. Then use the lowest-cost means to implement your allocations, and lowest-cost invariably means a passively-managed index fund (ETF or otherwise).
I've taken a few fliers on private equity placements (still waiting for that to pan out ), a regional actively managed small cap, some individual stocks, etc. They're fine and keep my juices flowing, but heaven forbid if I were expecting them to keep me from mooching off my children as I get older. That job is left to S&P500 index funds, EAFE index funds, Emerging Markets index funds, REITs, TIPS and TIPS funds, etc. I haven't done wonderfully lately, but I'm not down as much as many are, and my volatility is generally lower. Until recently, it was rare to have a day where everything was down; there usually were a few arrows up.
Mind you, in my town with its over-representation of financial types (we're a nice commute from NYC), it makes me the dullard at bar-b-qs. There's no status in owning a bunch of index funds. I do think, though, that I sleep better at night than the folks boasting about their latest 4-bagger.
I don't remember if I mentioned "Fooled by Randomness" by Nassim Nicholas Taleb. First rate and fun to read.
posted on July 26, 2008 08:15:52 AM newThere's no status in owning a bunch of index funds.
Living in Silicon Valley I know many people who got sucked into buying tech stocks and bragging about what bulletproof hotshot investors they were. Most of them lost all the money they made and more. Some are still struggling to recover financially. There's not much status in that.
Our retirement is secure in Northern California real estate and TIAA-CREF, but it's fun to talk over the day's developments at dinnertime.
fLufF
--
The Fourth is over but we've still got Fireworks...
"it's fun to talk over the day's developments at dinnertime." We don't discuss it over dinner, but I follow the market closely, probably too closely, because it's fun to see what's happening.
I unfortunately also update my portfolio in Quicken daily, because it's a side effect of downloading all of my other financial information (checking, credit cards, etc.). I have to admit that I look at the portfolio value when I do that, although I wish that I just followed it weekly or monthly.
I can't disagree with your account at TIAA-CREF, the only company other than Vanguard that I recommend.
posted on July 26, 2008 09:46:53 PM new
eBay is a very badly run company. eBay does not seem to have a solid understanding of either its buyers or sellers. If I had to choose one word to describe eBay management it would be "arrogant" they simply do not listen, they make repeated bad decisions, they have proven to be unreliable business partners time and time again. Reading this board for several years you see more and more ebay sellers have transitioned either partially or totally off of ebay and onto other ventures such as independent webstores, other merchandising sites both auction and fixed price based and, hosted sites and RL selling forums.
Ebay reminds me a lot of AOL at one time they both had a huge customer base and tremedously high growth rates. They both liked to brag about "customer ownership", "eyeballs, "clicks" etc. At one time AOL had over 30 million PAID monthly subscribers, now it is under 6 million and falling fast DESPITE the fact that many people now pay NOTHING at all for using AOL they still leave!
I think the same will be true for eBay. You see more and more dead eBay accounts folks who have not bought or sold anything for a long time. Pretty much all eBay sellers will tell you that traffic, bids, prices are all down. Very few eBay sellers have a positive view of eBay. eBay seems to be especially bad at adding any new customers.
The constant administrative changes, the poor working relationships with associated companies (Photo hosts, ebay helper software companies, payment processors etc) all have had negative implications for eBay. I do not think anyone in the leadership of eBay has any substantial, meaningful experience in merchandising or retailing. They simply are not merchants and do not understand what it means to be a merchant. While I don't think there is any danger of eBay going broke in the near future, I also don't think they have a clue about how to successfully grow the business, increase customer loyalty, improve customer experience etc.
Basically ebay is run by spreadsheet type MBA's who belive their spreadsheets to the detriment of reality. I would guess that things will have to get really screwed up before there is even an attempt to take appropriate corrective action. eBay was and is a vey neat concept but it sucks at execution in many and major ways.
posted on July 27, 2008 05:24:32 AM new
Postcardman,
I can't really disagree with much of what you say, but want to point out two things. 1) Being stupid, arrogant, and tone-deaf has not always resulted in failure (I'm resisting being political here) and 2) PayPal is a cash cow.
posted on July 27, 2008 06:39:01 AM new
Ebay is a badly run company. That seems very apparent. Paypal is a cash cow for them, who knows where they might be without paypal...
), a regional actively managed small cap, some individual stocks, etc. They're fine and keep my juices flowing, but heaven forbid if I were expecting them to keep me from mooching off my children as I get older. That job is left to S&P500 index funds, EAFE index funds, Emerging Markets index funds, REITs, TIPS and TIPS funds, etc. I haven't done wonderfully lately, but I'm not down as much as many are, and my volatility is generally lower. Until recently, it was rare to have a day where everything was down; there usually were a few arrows up.