posted on November 20, 2000 08:51:48 AM
The stock market has dropped considerably this year and the wealth effect has also taken its toll on ebay sales. I would view this as a temporary state and nothing to get alarmed about, as economic conditions change frequently.
"If you lend someone $20, and never see that person again, it was probably worth it."
posted on November 20, 2000 09:14:41 AM
Wealth effect has little to do with eBay's slower growth.
There was no way eBay could continue the growth it had experienced. eBay's, like all markets, is finite.
"Collectables" are not a growth industry. The only way eBay can grow is through bringing in regular retailers.
See my previous post- I mentioned eBay would raise listing/closing fees to make up for the loss of growth effect- analysts just said the same thing today- calling for a raise in rates next year.
posted on November 20, 2000 09:30:50 AM
New features like "Watch This Auction" haven't helped. Banners drawing bidders AWAY frome Bay haven't helped. Lack of a cohesive ad campaign hasn't helped. Buying Butterfields and eBay motors hasn't helped. Rearranging the jewelry categories during the busiest gift shopping time of the year sure put a dent in my sales (approx. 35 items on my bidder's list, 1 bid. No one can assuce me of shilling LOL!)
And the buyers are out there. They are hitting my website, Amazon Z-shops, even Yahoo with some regularity. (No deadbeat bidders yet on Yahoo). The orders are coming in--but not through eBay.
posted on November 20, 2000 10:57:45 AM
eBay has become too big for a buyer to browse. If you have a unique item or one that someone isn't particularly looking for, it's just shear luck if you find a buyer.
I once did my searches under current items in a category, but now only use closing soon. Can't peruse 80 or 200+ pages of items.
The analysts also mentioned that eBay needs to do more marketing- hopefuly this will bring in more buyers.
posted on November 20, 2000 11:41:59 AM
Any of us who rely upon ebay for our main source of income, have been stating this for over a year now. We sure didn't need any analyst to confirm, what most of us have known for some time now. It's a whole new game now that many will not survive. There are many people who will continue to use the net to do their shopping, but one needs to have that face to face contact, that is sorely lacking with internet sales. I do find it surprising that this downgrade came not too long after Meg dumped a few of her shares. I'd have to see where she sold them, but I bet it saved her some money.
http://shortebay.com
posted on November 20, 2000 11:51:26 AM
does anyone think that all the press about the tremendous amount of forgery of collectibles, jewelry, autographs etc.,on ebay and the prosecution of large numbers of sellers and forensic frauds has finally scared off the bidding public?
posted on November 20, 2000 12:04:57 PM
There is still quite a bit of apprehension with internet sales. I had one bidder tell me that they were ripped off twice this past month. Surely doesn't help sales any. I would also like to see the results of the lawsuit against ebay for allowing people to sell fraudulant autographs, etc. Would anyone have an idea of ebay's responsibility on this one?
posted on November 20, 2000 12:07:41 PM
Fraud happens in any sales venue, it isn't limited to online auctions.
The publicity that hurts is that eBay does nothing and takes a hands off "venue" attitude when it suits their purposes. The news reports stated eBay was timely informed of the fraud by the buyers and permitted the sellers to continue for 6 months until they were indicted.
The best antidote to fraud is certain and swift recourse. Which online auctions do not provide.
However, IMHO, I think the problem of dilution of individual sales is due to competition and the loss of novelty of online auctions. Slow PC sales also mean there is not a lot on new net cruisers available to eBay.
How do we get the other 230 million Americans online and buying ?
Poor growth management by dial up ISPs is also a problem. Being on cable, I take for granted instant net access and super fast surfing. This AW board comes up for me in fraction of a second - for too many dial up customers, they can fix lunch while the board comes up and then hope they don'y get dropped. There are millions out there who are so frustrated with dial up ISP service that they use the net for nothing more than email.
posted on November 20, 2000 12:08:11 PM
does anyone think that all the press about the tremendous amount of forgery of collectibles, jewelry, autographs etc.,on ebay and the prosecution of large numbers of sellers and forensic frauds has finally scared off the bidding public?
posted on November 20, 2000 01:01:48 PM
I agree that the novelty has worn off.
In the beginning, I used to bid on five times more than I do now. Now, I wait to see if more of the items pop up. I've realized that just because I haven't seen something in 20 years doesn't mean this is my last chance to get one. Someone else will have one soon enough. That idea has settled in and the sense of urgency in bidding on stuff has subsided.
I have also found things selling for $30+ on eBay and I have gotten them for under $10 in amazon's Zshops. I do a lot more comparison shopping now than ever before.
The biggest problem I have with ebaY now is what one poster above mentioned: an inability to browse. There are just too many categories and too much crap to wade through. I stick with the Going, Going, Gone, and sometimes search for key words, but the fun browsing days are over.
Not Kerryann on eBay
Spelling police
[ edited by kerryann on Nov 20, 2000 01:05 PM ]
posted on November 20, 2000 01:27:11 PM
eBay has featured fairly prominently in several front-page articles, such as when USA Today ran, a couple months ago, a banner like "Online auctions top fraud" or something like that, and eBay was mentioned while still on the front page.
That sort of press has been fairly common of late.
I've been doing 99% Search for my eBay activites, along with some "View Seller's Other Auctions," never browse, so I haven't been overwhelmed by bacteria-like dividing of categories or of browsing categories whose listings remain voluminous.
I've seen some of my searches results grow, but I'm usually fiddling with the searches, constantly refining them to exclude subwords I'm not interested in (any more), especially when lists grow long, changing some "search descriptions" to only titles, etc.
I have not enjoyed the downtimes, the growing eBay-derived spam, the invasion of DoubleClick (however easily blocked). They now have "nonsession" cookies popping up on every auction page, items taking sometimes more than 24 hours to appear in search (this only seems to get worse each month), etc.
So even with nearly 100% Search to avoid Category issues, I've gotten irritated, to the point I'm not bidding as often.
Sellers are clearly annoyed with Category choices, the layout of eBay Motors, the excessives of some VERO's, the Watch feature, as well as the common factors of add-to-Search delay and simple downtime, sometimes competing banner ads, lack of any other (esp. offline) marketing initiatives, bringing in large co-partners (or whatever Disney and such are defined as).
Plus you get the general environment, with factors such as the tech stock turndown, general privacy and security concerns over personal information and credit cards on the Internet.
I don't think any one factor alone is a majority factor. There are quite a few that added up a burdensome.
eBay's not the happiest place to be (or more importantly, buy) nowadays. Which of these are hitting the bottom line the most, I'm not sure.
posted on November 20, 2000 02:03:47 PM
Apparently Lehman Bros. isn't buying eBay's predictions of 50% growth per year. There's a difference between lying to mom-and-pop ex-flea marketers and lying to Wall St. analysts. eBay's bogus claims drove up their stock a couple of points, but now they are paying the price. Totally predictable.
The article made a good observation about "fanatical" buyers. I would also include fanatical sellers. Back when eBay was such a huge success, too many pros were drawn in. This changed eBay's face from online garage sale (which was hugely successful) to some kind of weird hybrid including B2P and B2B. I think this is a large part of eBay's decline. eBay has fuelled the problem by encouraging more Walmart-type and commercial items. True collectibles and good deals have become few and far between. eBay has gone from flea market to mega-mall.
In looking over the categories where I sell, I see so many more listings for pure junk. Pages and pages of the same old items that nobody wants. It's frustrating for buyers, even when they use the closing soon search. Buyers are simply giving up. I still buy at eBay when I'm looking for a specific item, but as far as casual browsing, forget it.
I began selling three-plus years ago when there were a million or two members. Sales were great, but have dropped off steadily. Now, with 10 times as many members, sales are about half what they were at the beginning. eBay has been looking for ways to increase profit by inviting big companies, and in so doing has cut off the hand that feeds them (the small sellers).
I believe that one other factor in eBay's decline is their clearly inept programming. (Take eBay's Mr. Lister bulk uploader. It's been in "beta development" for at least six months.) A simple program like this could be done by a high school kid. Sellers may stick around a while longer, but customers are discouraged when eBay is always down during the busiest times of the week. Faithful customers leave and don't come back for weeks or months, if ever. This is more than just upgrading to keep up with the volume of new customers. eBay is constantly adding bells and whistles which only serve to introduce new bugs into the system. I can't remember once during the last two years that eBay wasn't adding new "features" but none if it has helped. They pass these blunders on to sellers in the form of fee increases. When they raise the basic listing fee, it will be eBay's death knell.
eBay has dissected the goose that lays the golden eggs. They didn't find the secret, but they killed the goose. eBay has done on its own what Yahoo, Amazon and the rest couldn't do. They've brought down the giant.
posted on November 20, 2000 02:09:15 PM
I'm done for the rest of the year. Last night my last auction closed. I usually have several payments via paypal by now but last time I checked, there were no payments. I also have several items 2 weeks post that haven't been paid for.
Last year hospitals in my area offered incentives during the busy flu season so I'm hoping to cash in on some extra shifts in lieu of ebay money.
posted on November 20, 2000 03:36:54 PM
twinsoft
I agree with some of what you say,the Mr Lister still in beta is a joke and its a year old.
Though I do not completely agree with what you said here
"
True collectibles and good deals have become few and far between"
Problem is that most of the true collectables like my 1619 King James Bible bring better prices at Brick and Mortar auctions than they do on ebaY.
In fact the prices at Book dealers are 3 times what I can get for the same on ebaY.
So I think a lot of the good true collectables re being pulled from the ebaY market and sold elsewhere.
In fact I am starting to look at items to buy off ebaY and get better prices for that item at a brick and mortar auction house.
But that been my take.
I would have thought that more people that join ebaY the more collectors you would get and prices would reflect that but those collectors I need are not there.
I will still list probably 60 items a week and I think even part time as a hobby I can and will still generate close to 1000 a week in sales.
posted on November 20, 2000 04:00:17 PM
I'm with Reamond. I've been saying this for over a year now..ebay is just to big. They need to split it into 2 separate sites. I'd like to see antiques/collectables in one site, and all the other stuff in another. I've been on ebay since 96 (auctionweb) and I know how to use it to find what I'm looking for, and it just takes too damn long to slog through pages and pages of junk and misleading ads to find the thing I'm looking for. How do you think it is for the new user?
As for fraud, those of us that sold mail order before the advent of internet sales, knows it's always been something one needs to watch for. It happens in all venues, and I don't know that is more prevalent at ebay. BUT, that said, I think besides some of the other reasons already mentioned, and certainly the absolute GLUT of merchandise offers, a major reason for low and minimum bids, is that buyers are just fed up with the lousy customer service and inflated shipping and handling that are encountered on a regular basis. So just as some sellers increase their shipping fees to make up for low sales, increased credit card charges, etc., so do buyers decrease their bids factoring in these inflated charges. Just wait until the postal rates go up next year. You think sales are down now....!
posted on November 20, 2000 04:17:52 PM
Another sad point for those of us who've "seen it coming," we've missed the best shot to make real money. Ever since last spring, I've been considering making EBAY stock my first short position ever. At some points, I might have been squeezed out, scared into buying to cover if I had... but as of now of course short positions are the big winners. Also looked at put options (limited loss possible as opposed to shorting) but the premiums charged by options traders were quite high.... still many LEAP puts on EBAY would've been a huge winner as of now.
Anyone has the nerve and wants to back their certainty that this company is in trouble, short-selling strategy is still there. I agree that Meg's projections of 50% growth (was that of total revenues, earnings, or both?) were utterly insane, whistling-past-the-graveyard braggadoccio. Wall Street doesn't take kindly to that stuff once they're sure someone's treating them like, well, silly flea-market dealers.
[ edited by pyth00n on Nov 20, 2000 04:18 PM ]
posted on November 20, 2000 05:43:23 PM
Stusi- I'm 90% sure all the adverse publicity about Autograph frauds has scared off the bidding public. On the weekend I picked up a couple on Ebay from a seller whose reputation is beyond reproach for very good deals.
The bids aren't there- too many people have been scared off, and Ebay loses a lot in FVF's because they were too stubborn (or greedy-still not sure which) to do anything about forgers. Now the whole area is tainted and the good sellers can't sell their stuff.
(There's still alot of forgers out there with incredibly high feedback. I'm an educated enough buyer (and seller) I can recognise certain signatures on sight. There's a lot of crap there. If I don't know the seller, I don't bvuy- simple as that.)
Collectible sales in General are off. I'm doing OK but even High Grade comics don't come anywhere near Guide on Ebay. (CGC not withstanding.) Prices are seriously depressed in a lot of areas. (I'm picking up a lot for cheap to fill in silver age holes.)
NOT Vorlon4 on Ebay.
(Hmmm haven't seen Radh waving Meg Whitman pom-poms here yet- wonder why????)
I understand what you are saying currently right know there ancient roman coins that are forgeries and we can prove it too.
They are based in Bulgaria,ebaY has been notified about but does nothing as only an educated buyer would know such.
I have access to actual signatures of the Beatles,Queen Victoria other Royalty including Charles and Diana.However due too the distrust of such items on ebaY and the low prices they generate I avoid them like the plague.
I would like to see ebaY split into 2 sites as well one for antiques and the other for general items.
Other problem is the confusion of categories as to where to list and where does a buyer look.
Here is an example
Take a 1619 King James Bible where do you list it.
Antiques Books and Manuscripts under General or English
Or do you put in Book Rares.
2 seperate areas that it fits well into both
so confusing sometimes.
posted on November 20, 2000 05:56:13 PM
I read both news reports quoted here- to me this is the most telling comment:
"Becker said a recent flurry of stock sales by eBay insiders also raised red flags.
During the final week of October, eBay management and directors sold about 2.5 million shares of stock at prices ranging between $50.35 and $56.55 per share, according to Securitie and Exchange Commission filings."
Something aboput rats and flotation challenged ships comes to mind.
posted on November 20, 2000 08:24:24 PM
imabrit - I love it when you say thrice.
The ability to list in 2 categories now would work well for that Bible. Something like that should be able to absorb the double liting fee. The FVF stays the same. (Isn't that big of them?
posted on November 21, 2000 07:51:55 AM
I'm sure many buyers are fed up with poor service. My take is that bidders are also sated. The bidders are there, but sales continue to drop. Collectibles and rarities are selling for well below guide value. If other sellers are like me, they are giving stuff away at below wholesale. (I buy closeouts.)
After a new customer's first few ecstatic impulse buys, and subsequently finding the same item for less, eBay mania wears off. Buyers know that by waiting, they will probably get a better deal. eBay hasn't helped matters by adding the "Watch now, bid later" feature. (Thanks, eBay.) Let's face it, the sheer size of eBay's categories is a tip-off to customers that there's no need to rush. Better deals will always come along. And with so many categories, buyers are confused about where the real deals lie. For example, I saw an old kerosine lantern go for a large sum in the Firefighting category. But in the Kerosine Lantern category, almost nothing is moving. (I doubt the buyer in the Firefighter category was even aware of the Kerosine Lantern category.)
To combat the slump, sellers must place a reserve and list the item perhaps several times before it sells for a fair price. So that super auction that last year started at a buck, now will cost you $10 in listing and reserve fees. I just can't in good conscience fork over that kind of percentage to eBay.
Adrian, I'm glad things are working out for you and I'm glad you'll continue to sell at eBay part time. An old KJB like you sell truly is a rare, collectible, valuable item. Don't let anybody kid ya.
Pulled another all-nighter. Sorry if I'm rambling.
posted on November 21, 2000 08:18:15 AM
Has Meg or anyone associated with eBay made any statements explaining/justifying their stock sale? I realize that they don't have to explain, but it would be interesting to see what they said if asked.
posted on November 21, 2000 08:26:47 AM
anyone see the recent Forbes magazine print article entitled "SLEAZE BAY"?
Articles like that in major business publications on fraud on ebay are not going to help matters. Major public relations fiasco in my humble opinion.
I can't put my hands on the article now to give the exact date but in the most recent issue which was mailed to our house last week there was the article plain as day.
posted on November 21, 2000 09:58:34 AM
To any buyer who is suffering through category surfing that has gotten too annoying to bear, I have one word: search.
Take some extra time to figure out Search, how to refine searches, deciding between description vs. title-only search, phrases, negative (exclude this) terms, and so on, and you'll likely save plenty of time later. Most of my search results pages are under one page each, and when they get longer, I can almost always find a term that has gotten common but uninteresting enough to exclude.
I do occasionally peek at which category certain resulting search items are from (at the top of individual auction ads), and for each kind of thing I look for, I tend to see them placed in 2-4 different categories from auction to auction. For each kind of item I look for, I'd be browsing 10-100 times or more listings if Search didn't exist, multiplied by 2-4 times more categories each might be in, just to find the same relatively small number of actual items.
I really couldn't care less if there were a hundred, a thousand, or a million categories, or just one big giant, category-less lump. I know Search will not be best for everyone, but if you're getting disaffected with categories, try searches, before giving up on online auctions.
While this may cut down on some of the "window shopping" and "urge buys," it is more complicated then that: in remaining better focused, people will find more of what they really want, without getting frustrated at having to wade through so many extraneous listings. Some losses, some gains (whether they exactly balance, I couldn't say).
There is one major drawback to Search, however: eBay is now up to taking 24 hours to add individual auctions to Search. This has been going on for months, steadily worsening from a delay of a few hours to frequent delays of 24 hours.
There is no excuse for making their system more complex and buggy with a bunch of bells and whistles while letting the usefulness of core functionality like Search just rot away. No excuse whatsoever.
So eBay has problems with categories, and it has problems with search. No one is left unaffected, whether they realize it or not. I'd still highly recommend searches any day, however.
eBay may still look solidly incredible at first or second glance, but being in it awhile seems to give (me at least) an impression of a barn that's full of increasingly large holes, rotting beams, sawdust, overpacked and slowly collapsing under its own weight, even as "shiny" but heavy additions are being made.
----
What's being done in the name of direct marketing nowadays is crazy.
The above are all just my opinions, except where I cite facts as such.
Oh, I am not dc9a320 anywhere except AW. Any others are not me.
Is eBay is changing from a world bazaar into a bizarre world?
[ Edited because UBB doesn't have underline! ]
[ edited by dc9a320 on Nov 21, 2000 09:59 AM ]
posted on November 21, 2000 02:17:51 PMdc9a320, you anticipated my objection, and reamond, you grabbed my response. Here is where the type of item you sell is a factor. I sell cheap stuff, mostly under $20, many at $5. I hope to get "impulse" bids for my items. Obviously, most people wouldn't shell out $1,000 for some antique furniture on a whim. And sure, I think the "novelty factor" wears off for most bidders after a couple of wins.
The matter with searches is that I only search when I'm looking for something specific. Browsing just isn't fun anymore, for several reasons. If I'm only doing searches, chances are I'll do most of my buying in late November or early December, and that's all. As a seller, I can't support myself for a year on one month's sales.
The last item I bought on eBay in fact I did find doing a search. I was searching my own auctions for Doom 2 and somehow a nice Doom 2 t-shirt slipped into the search. I wanted that shirt just as a treat for myself, because I sell a lot of Doom products, and I was willing to pay for it. Not something I "wanted" until I saw it. Then I had to have it!
This auction that I won points to what I think is a growing problem. eBay is failing to connect potential bidders/buyers with the items they might be interested in. Whether it's because there are too many items, or too many categories, or whatever. Take a look at what's happened to Featured Auctions. They've gone from eBay's front page, to their own 40-page category tucked away in some dark corner of the site. eBay ironically now calls these auctions "Featured Home Page." By that, they mean your item will show up for 15 minutes on Tuesday at 3:00 a.m. I expect a little more when I'm paying $100 to list an item.
Take that example I mentioned above with the kerosine lantern. Some guy paid $1,000 for a lantern he found in the Firefighters category. He could have paid $200 for the same thing in the Kerosine Lanterns category. He probably wasn't looking for that lantern, and it's hard to believe he even knew about the Kerosine Lantern category.
Okay, the guy should have had the sense to at least do a search before plunking down that kind of money. But with new categories being added every day, and old ones disappearing, a buyer has to (1) already know what he wants and (2) be aware of Search and how to use it. That eliminates a LOT of impulse sales. I don't think eBay is doing enough to inform and direct bidders to the items they might want. eBay's categories have become a maze of catacombs, and woe to the seller who lists an item in an inappropriate category.
Unfortunately, I can't think of any solution, other than eBay weeding-out small time sellers like myself. Perhaps splitting the site in two would be a good idea.
