posted on November 23, 2000 10:54:24 AM new
From time to time, crazes sweep through the society and businesses ride those waves. Most crazes eventually reach a maturation phase where they either go away all together (marble madnes, etc.), taper off to a much lower growth/no growth level (Beanies are there now), or enter a period of steady decline where only the diehards keep at it (Pokeman cards anyone?).
The investment community is in the long correction phase of realizing that there is no "new" economy and that a business is only a business if it makes a profit. Hence the rolling blackouts which continue to sweep through the 'net stock marketplace.
Personally I think the whole eBay phenomenon is now past it's craze phase and thus is past it's hypergrowth era. Only time will tell if it is going to be the slow growth, slow decline, or sudden death model. Personally I'm expecting a slow growth period.
Drastic growth slow downs generally spur a frenzy of activity inside the companies which are suddenly forced to switch from mega-growth mode to the management of a mature business. I see this now in eBay's frenzied introduction of new complicated features and desperate attempts to land big accounts. I just listed a few items for sale on eBay, and I was shocked at how many premium services they tried to sell me on the listing page. Somebody forgot the adage Keep It Simple, Stupid! This is a sure sign of desperation.
eBay's stock so far has only suffered from brown-outs and not a full scale black out. It is highly probably that the black out will eventually come and this will be a sub $5 stock.
posted on November 23, 2000 11:03:17 AM new
I believe what ebay will become is what it was always intended to be - a collecor's market, not a non-stop, open 24 hours a day Wallmart.
I read a lot of the messsage boards, and I see the same thing over and over again - sellers complaining that sales aren't what they used to be, that there's too many out there and that the competition takes away from what ebay used to be and what a profit maker it was in the "old days".
I sell for the most part television & movie magazines. I spend a lot of time scouting product and I enjoy listing them on ebay, finding a way to market them that noone else does, looking for the key that makes my item unique. Do I make as much money on this as I used to? No. But I'm hardly out of business.
I make a nice little profit that adds some petty cash to my paycheck, and I enjoy coming up with a strategy behind each sale.
That's what ebay is to me, and what it always will be - a place to find items that you could never find in a store, the old adage that what is garbage to one person is a collector's item to another.
Quite frankly, I look forward to ebay turning the tide again.
posted on November 23, 2000 11:17:26 AM new
skruggie: I agree with you completely, and the implications for eBay's stock price are huge. Of course I've never bought any eBay stock nor have I shorted it, so the stock price doesn't really matter to me.
posted on November 23, 2000 11:33:12 AM new
I dont think ebay its self is a fad My self.
What is a Fade is people thinking Ebay is a fast easy way to get rich selling anything.
I beleave they will not grow as fast as they imagined or pojected catagories will thin out and not be a saturated after a while as the get rich quick gang moves on to there next fad and full time serious sellers will have there places back in niche areas.
posted on November 24, 2000 09:53:38 AM new
Ebay was picked by a stock program this week as the #1 cap buy! Imagine that. While other dot.coms are going down.
posted on November 25, 2000 07:57:44 PM new
I agree with Dman3, I think ebay has a great future when the dust settles and the people who came riding in to get rich quick go running off to some other scheme. I think one of the worst problems that ebay has right now are all the people running around selling crap about how to get rich on ebay. They are causing a lot of undue scrutiny by attracting the unscrupulous operators that follow every boom. When the boom dies the trouble will move on and business will go on for those who stuck it out.
posted on November 25, 2000 08:29:13 PM new
Freddy:
It's us ebay pioneers that made ebay what it is, that are losing out.
Anyone not there from the beginning, I mean AuctionWeb beginning, do not understand the whole original concept spliel that was puked up to us by Pierre way back before he was too important to TCB.
If it were not for us many diehards who put in a lot of work, for a little or nothing in the beginning, he would still be peddling his girlfriends Pez dispensers in the local classifieds.
Don't assume that everyone came "riding in to get rich". Some of us, are the ones who made THEM rich.
I been here from the beginning, when I found a little flea market site by accident almost 5 years ago, so please, don't assume.
posted on November 25, 2000 08:39:17 PM new
Pocono, I understand what you are saying and you obviously are not one of the boom followers that I am talking about.
I have been in several booms in my lifetime. The oil boom of the late 70's, the mining boom of the early 90's and now the technology boom. In every boom town there is an element that shows up and takes advantage of those who are doing the honest work, such as yourself. They swindle and steal and make things bad for the honest people. This is exactly what is going on today on ebay. The shysters that don't follow the rules, don't deliver what they promised or flat steal the money of honest bidders are here making it bad for everyone else and bringing undue scrutiny from the media and government. In a little while the boom will settle down on ebay and these people will ride off and trouble whoever is up next and ebay will go back to being a nice place to do business that you once enjoyed. Everybody just has to hang in and ride out the tough places.
posted on November 25, 2000 08:46:42 PM new
pocono
If you were making "little to nothing" why did you hang around?
I've been at eBay just as long and it has been a glorious ride - and ebay made us tons of money - but when the ride started getting rude, inconsiderate, lying, price gouging, etc., I started looking around and discovered there were other sites that would welcome me, where I could sell as well as on eBay and I took most of my auctions and left.
When eBay climbs down off of its "high horse," when others discover the same thing that I did - then I may return with more auctions, but till then we are doing all we can handle with most posted elsewhere.
So back to my original question, why does one, and you said "hang around making little to nothing"?
posted on November 25, 2000 11:05:07 PM new
I am wondering if the new postal rates, primarily for priority mail, will hurt eBay selling, especially those who sell the lighter items such as beanie babies. I believe the jump for the first two pounds is $3.20 to $3.50. There was an increase from $3.00 a year or so ago.
