posted on September 25, 2001 03:14:18 PM
I'm just curious as to whether you think Ebay will meet its goal of 100 million in 100 days. Just judging by the auctions listed at present, it seems like they're going to come well short of it. How do you think they'll handle it if they don't reach their target? Will they donate the difference?
posted on September 25, 2001 04:10:02 PM
I said it before and I'll say it again, eBay may have puffed up their chest when they said they would raise $100 million in 100 days, but a look at their auctions reveal otherwise. By searching for common words in listings (I tried "unique" and "pretty", I estimated that about 1 out of every 125 auctions is A4A. eBay had $2.2 billion in transactions via the website last quarter. That comes out to $2.4 billion in 100 days. Assuming the average selling price is the same, and assuming the average length of the auction is the same, and assuming the typical auction titles and descriptions are the same, you will find: $2.4 Billion /125= $19 million. This is far short of eBay's goal. The campaign may pick up steam, but unless they change the terms (allowing PayPal, matching-fee donations), it seems extremely unlikely eBay will meet their goal. Has anyone on the media picked up on that? eBay is acting like they will raise $100 million, but unless Pierre, Meg, et. al. contribute themselves (or via eBay foundation), they will not meet their pledge.
posted on September 25, 2001 06:42:28 PM
Interesting calculations. I also doubt that ebay will make the 100 million goal through sales alone.
More importantly the earnings would have been down with the "R" word now a fact, plus the considerable shakeup in consumer behaviour caused by the attack on the WTC, and with more problems likely to follow.
But the most devastating impact on ebay sales and earnings is the AFA promotion which has clearly cannibalized regular auction sales, is destroying a number of sellers, and is reducing ebay's profits with each sale made there.
I think the company's earnings will tank this quarter from the loss of fees to the AFA fiasco.
Meg and co. better hope the stockholders are as willing to be as generous as we sellers are expected to be. If I have to take a haircut, the investors better get one too.
posted on September 25, 2001 07:26:59 PM
Only way eBay is even going to get close (IMO) is if Meg hustles a bunch of celebrities to put HIGH priced stuff up on AFA. A few of us peons dumping our junk won't do it.
posted on September 26, 2001 06:09:18 AM
With all the stock they filed to sell in recent months, Meg and Company can surely make up the difference. Yeah, right!
posted on September 26, 2001 06:43:33 AM
If ebay had any chance at all they would have put the counters up on the home page. They said last week that they would be up in a couple of days and I still don't see them, that should tell you something.
