sthoemke
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posted on July 21, 2008 06:30:00 PM
ebay stock hits 5-year low:
[ edited by sthoemke on Jul 21, 2008 06:30 PM ]
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hwahwa
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posted on July 21, 2008 07:35:52 PM
May be Ebay will try listing on the Moscow exchange!
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Gulag-a Soviet era concentration camp is now reincarnated as EBAY with 13,000 rules.
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ggardenour
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posted on July 21, 2008 09:32:46 PM
It's no suprise since Ding & Ling.... I mean Meg and Bill have been dumping their stock and with the way eBay treats its customers (sellers) I wouldn't be suprised if it went even lower.
I may not be a smart man but I know you can't treat your customers like dog doo-doo for long before they go somewhere else.
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pixiamom
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posted on July 21, 2008 09:52:47 PM
Ding & Ling? LOL
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ebabestreasures
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posted on July 22, 2008 06:10:25 AM
I'm sure they will spin this to make it look much better than it does.
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barparts
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posted on July 22, 2008 11:56:15 AM
Funny thing,
This chart shows that August has been traditionally the time to buy ebay stock and to sell it around Christmas time.
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fluffythewondercat
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posted on July 22, 2008 12:38:46 PM
Good catch, barparts. This seems a good time to buy eBay stock.
Yes, we detest management. Yes, we think eBay is headed in the wrong direction. But keep in mind that revenues continue to grow. They're just not growing fast enough to keep Wall Street happy this quarter. eBay isn't going poof! anytime soon, though.
I normally buy equities with an eye towards keeping them a decade but this could be a good short-term play. Have you seen the rates on CDs lately?
fLufF
--
The Fourth is over but we've still got Fireworks...
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hwahwa
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posted on July 22, 2008 02:07:07 PM
Ebay closed at 25.04 a share at trailing 12 months PE of 64.74.
This means if Ebay earns the same $$ every year ,it would take you 64.74 years to recoup your investment.
Of course no company is going to earn exactly the same $$ every year for 64 years with or without adjusting for inflation.
But a PE of 64 is reserved for growth stock and Ebay is no longer considered a growth stock.
Where and how would Ebay grow?
Ebay penetration results in China is not impressive,may be Rwanda or Congoland ?Or may be MARS!
*
Gulag-a Soviet era concentration camp is now reincarnated as EBAY with 13,000 rules.
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deichen
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posted on July 22, 2008 02:08:39 PM
They're just not growing fast enough to keep Wall Street happy this quarter. eBay isn't going poof! anytime soon, though.
Yes, but the stock hasn't had a year like 2005 in a long time. I doubt it will anytime soon.
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gasolineguys
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posted on July 22, 2008 05:40:13 PM
I sold my ebay stock a month ago. I did well with it, it split 4 times and I sold off 300 shares and kept 100, that is what I just sold. I don't think it is going any place !!
JMO
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barparts
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posted on July 23, 2008 07:42:02 AM
Seems fluffy was the only one to understand. Buy ebay for the very short term, like for 4-5 months.
Remember that eBay's busiest time of the year is only a short 2 1/2 months away. What direction is their stock price going during that period?
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pixiamom
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posted on July 23, 2008 07:33:57 PM
Barparts, I think a number of us "got it". But seeing our eBay revenues and fees at 50% of what they were this time last year cause many of us to reflect that perhaps eBay is tanking and will not achieve the anticipated revenues or stock prices in the upcoming Christmas season.
Edited to add: with the pre-announced future requirements and the difficulty in editing store items to comply PLUS the anticipation of a major shift in store listings in August, I can foresee more listings ending than being added in the near future. Perhaps eBay needs to do this for its long-term survival but I don't see this as an indicator for a short-term investment.
[ edited by pixiamom on Jul 23, 2008 07:49 PM ]
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fluffythewondercat
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posted on July 23, 2008 08:53:22 PM
You don't matter. I don't matter. If you take everyone who has ever posted to the Stores board, they don't matter either.
None of us are even a speck of dust on eBay's radar screen, much less a blip.
Who matters? The megasellers who PAY NO LISTING FEES. Buy.com is the first, with 500,000 listings. But they won't be the last. Imagine how many sales you could make if you didn't have to pay listing fees.
EBay treats us like dog crap because that's what we are: a minor annoyance stuck to the sole of their shoe.
fLufF
--
The Fourth is over but we've still got Fireworks...
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pixiamom
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posted on July 23, 2008 11:20:13 PM
I seriously doubt if my customers, or your customers, will abandon us for buy.com. Perhaps eBay is willing to flush its buyers down the toilet for a bite at the lesser market Amazon holds. (Wouldn't surprise me). In any case, I very much doubt that they will succeed in this by Christmas.
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sthoemke
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posted on July 24, 2008 01:34:53 PM
Hope no one here bought ebay stock yesterday... stock is down almost 4% today.
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scott53
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posted on July 24, 2008 02:13:53 PM
Meanwhile, Amazon was up 11.60% today and is up another 0.50% in after hours trading.
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MAH645
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posted on July 24, 2008 07:37:46 PM
To me Buy.Com is a joke. All they sell is high price garbage that doesn't even compete well with what a lot of the media powersellers sell. I don't think they sell jewelry do they? I noticed they don't have the same DVDs that I sell.
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fluffythewondercat
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posted on July 24, 2008 10:00:29 PM
I seriously doubt if my customers, or your customers, will abandon us for buy.com.
Did I say Buy was our competition? No. They're the wave of the future. Donahoe already said he wanted to get rid of the flea market. That's us.
I read today that Buy sold 133,000 items last month. Ya think it might be possible they have more leverage with eBay than you or I or everyone we know?
fLufF
--
The Fourth is over but we've still got Fireworks...
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fluffythewondercat
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posted on July 24, 2008 10:08:52 PM
Hope no one here bought ebay stock yesterday... stock is down almost 4% today.
And that has to do what, exactly, with a buy-and-hold-five-months strategy?
Nothing.
The only price that's important is the one on the day I sell it.
fLufF
--
The Fourth is over but we've still got Fireworks...
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neglus
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posted on July 24, 2008 11:36:00 PM
I can see why eBay wants BUY - but not quite sure why BUY wants eBay.
Here's BUY's page from Sellerdome. Note the monthly sales ($2.2 million), Sell through (2.3%) - obviously not paying listing fees. They had 1.7 MILLION listings with 151.0 MILLION items offered. We little guys are not in the same game at all:
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http://stores.ebay.com/Moody-Mommys-Marvelous-Postcards?refid=store
[ edited by neglus on Jul 24, 2008 11:38 PM ]
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merrie
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posted on July 25, 2008 08:12:33 AM
Wednesday Cramer did a SELL, SELL, SELL on Ebay.
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sthoemke
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posted on July 25, 2008 08:16:20 AM
That's what Meg has been doing
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fluffythewondercat
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posted on July 25, 2008 09:18:18 AM
Jim Cramer is an entertaining fellow.
fLufF
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The Fourth is over but we've still got Fireworks...
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merrie
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posted on July 25, 2008 11:44:24 AM
But, he (Jim Cramer) "is not just there to entertain us, he is there to educate us as well." 
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sthoemke
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posted on July 25, 2008 01:27:40 PM
Jim Cramer cracks me up. You gotta love his sound effects.
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cashinyourcloset
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posted on July 25, 2008 03:35:42 PM
Cramer and the other touts do a disservice to the investing public. I'd rather watch a rerun of "The Office" or something similar; heck, Judge Judy is more entertaining and informative.
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merrie
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posted on July 25, 2008 04:50:42 PM
Hey, everyone has their opinions. That's why you have to do your own "homework." Been burned, huh!?!
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cashinyourcloset
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posted on July 25, 2008 06:36:11 PM
No merrie, I think that the underlying theory that there is homework to be done by amateurs is a problem. I worked in financial services for 20+ years and my wife still works for an investment bank.
With all of the multi-million dollar resources at their disposal, few professionals make money at stock picking. But they sure make money "helping" others pick 'em.
I'm not opposed to buying or selling individual stocks if it's part of your mad money. It is not a reliable way to fund retirement, though.
If you want a good description of why you'll never be able to do "homework," read "Fooling Some of the People ALL of the Time: A Long Short Story" by David Einhorn and Joel Greenblatt. For more straight advice in a classic, read "A Random Walk Down Wall Street." Then give your money to Vanguard or TIAA-CREF (John Bogle is probably the best friend the small investor ever had, and by small I mean anything less than $10Million).
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merrie
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posted on July 25, 2008 07:08:13 PM
cash: I agree that there is a lot of problems with the "market" that the small / average investor has no clue or control over.Many due to Hedgefunds and their aggressive ways.
I have several rules that I use for my "mad money." If a spec stock I own goes up 30%, I sell and do not look back even if it goes up 50%. If a stock goes down 20% I sell and move on.
I do rely on Mutual Funds, but many of them lag and can be worse than picking your own stocks. Diversification is key and listening to all aspects of the market and the mavens whether you heed their "advice" or not. Forewarned is forearmed when it comes to downgrades, etc.
Even if you do not agree with the stock pickers, many people listen and it is a prudent to be aware of what is being said so as not being caught in the crossfire.
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watchguy
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posted on July 25, 2008 07:17:00 PM
Hwahwa said:"Ebay closed at 25.04 a share at trailing 12 months PE of 64.74.
This means if Ebay earns the same $$ every year ,it would take you 64.74 years to recoup your investment.
Of course no company is going to earn exactly the same $$ every year for 64 years with or without adjusting for inflation.
But a PE of 64 is reserved for growth stock and Ebay is no longer considered a growth stock."
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.
.
.
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Actually, it's even worse than you propose from a stock evaluation POV. Your post would imply that a company pays out 100% of it's earnings as divivends, and an implied 5% growth year after year for the next 64 years. The inherent value of a stock is the present value of all it's total dividends. To justify a PE of 65 would imply a long-term growth rate of roughly 14%. 14% a year, every year, for 30 or so years. I don't see that potential in Ebay. I don't even see 5%. Not even close. The stock is a long term sell IMO, big time. I really think the only thing between the stock price and ZERO is the probability that they'll be taken over at some point, primarily based on the value of the PayPal brand. But it could as noted follow seasonal tendencies and be a good 4 month trade. Not with my money though.
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